football | Tuesday, April 16, 2024 9:35 AM

Roma vs AC Milan Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Daniele Fisichella

It’s advantage for the Giallorossi after an intense and hard fought first leg in the Europa League and here’s our Roma vs AC Milan prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures previews.

Prediction: Roma 1-2 AC Milan

Roma looked more organized, lucid, ferocious and convinced at San Siro, can they now finish the job at the Olimpico where they hold an impressive record in European competitions?

AC Milan have a very poor defensive away record in Serie A, but also an incredible ability to bounce back from difficult situations; as always our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has previewed the game.

Roma vs AC Milan Tip 1: AC Milan Asian Handicap 0.0
Roma vs AC Milan Tip 2: Roma Asian Handicap Cards 0.0
Roma vs AC Milan Tip 3: Over 2.5 Goals

Roma vs AC Milan Prediction 1: Can De Rossi outsmart Pioli again?

Europa League, Quarter-Final, 2nd leg, Thursday, April 18th, 20:00 (UK)

In the first leg, Roma’s manager’s choice to deploy El Shaarawy on the right-hand side to limit Rafael Leao’s action was the decisive move.

Roma contained AC Milan attacks as the Portuguese star did non have one of his finest games, and the Giallorossi remained calm and compact even when the Rossoneri piled up the pressure.

It was a finely balanced game, with more chances for Stefano Pioli’s men (especially in the second half, when Olivier Giroud also hit the bar), that leaves this quarter-final tie wide open.

AC Milan made more turnovers at the weekend than Roma, but Pioli had to bring on some of the regular starters, like Pulisic and Giroud, to overcome a 3-1 deficit against Sassuolo in the second half.

A goal once again rescued the visitors from one of their substitutes (Okafor, who has scored five of his six league goals coming off the bench), and in the end, could have even achieved the three points.

AC Milan have scored at least two goals in 11 of their previous 12 away games in Serie A, but their defensive frailties were, once again, exposed.

Roma vs AC Milan Prediction 1: AC Milan Asian Handicap 0.0 (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.81
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 5/10

Roma vs AC Milan Prediction 2: someone might see ‘red’

In fact, the Rossoneri have conceded 29 goals on the road in Serie A (the fourth worst record), 1.7 on average per game.

Pioli’s men have often struggled to control games at slow pace and last Sunday conceded twice in the opening 10 minutes.

Repeating a similar approach at the Olimpico will cost them the qualification against Roma that have only lost once (4-2 vs Inter) at home since mid-January.

However often in recent years AC Milan have defied the odds and a win on Thursday is not beyond their limits (they’ve won 10 Serie A away games so far).

The Giallorossi’s last six games (including last Sunday’s suspended game at Udine) have all produced less than three goals.

That’s not a sign De Rossi’s men have gone backwards to a more defensive approach; rather, the former team’s captain has managed to find a better balance within the team.

The hosts have scored at home in the previous 32 games in all competitions, and with Tammy Abraham finally fully fit, after almost a year’s absence, they have even more ammunition to trouble AC Milan.

But being an all-Italian tie, this could be, of course, a very feisty and tense affair.

Roma have only two players at risk of missing the semi-final if they get booked (Spinazzola and Paredes), whereas the visitors have four (Maignan, Calabria, Leao and Musah).

Roma vs AC Milan Prediction 2: Roma Asian Handicap Cards 0.0 (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.90
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 7/10

Roma vs AC Milan Prediction 3: a season defining match

The ‘Stadio Olimpico’ will definitely be a factor in this match, and Roma’s record in Europe at home is nothing short of impressive.

In fact the Giallorossi have only lost one of the previous 24 Europa League games played in Italy’s capital.

The last time they were defeated at home in a European knockout round (in 2017 by Villareal), Daniele De Rossi was still playing.

The hosts have won 15 and drawn three of the last 18 knockout matches played at home, an amazing record that has been strengthened under Josè Mourinho’s spell at the club (nine wins and one draw in the last ten matches at the Olimpico).

Clubs of the calibre of Liverpool, Manchester United, Barcelona and Bayer Leverkusen have all been recently defeated in Rome.

This would be the 38th time Italian teams played each other in continental competition and 30 of these produced two goals or less.

An early goal from AC Milan might make the game very cagey, but in this tie, Italy’s third (Roma) and second (AC Milan) best attacks face each other, and for both clubs, the main objective of the season is reaching the final in Dublin.

Roma vs AC Milan Prediction 3: Over 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.95
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 3/10

Roma vs AC Milan Prediction odds via bet365 as at 11:20, April 15th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Roma vs AC Milan Team News and Possible Lineups: a return in defense for the visitors

After the excellent performance in the first leg, De Rossi will select the same starting XI with the exception of Cristante, who is suspended.

Celik, Spinazzola, Mancini, and Smalling were rested over the weekend and will start on Thursday. In midfield, Bove should join Paredes and Pellegrini, but Aouar is also in contention for a start. El Shaarawy, Lukaku and Dybala will form the front three.

Stefano Pioli made seven changes against Sassuolo from the team that lost the first leg. Maignan will return in goal, with Calabria and Hernandez on the flanks and Tomori (who missed the first match due to suspension) and Gabbia in the middle.

Bennacer and Reijnders will play in the middle of the pitch, while Pulisic, Loftus-Cheek and Leao will support the lone striker Giroud.

Chukwueze, who is experiencing a good period of form, might be used in the second half.

Roma possible starting lineup:
Svilar; Çelik, Mancini, Smalling, Spinazzola; Cristante, Paredes, Lo.Pellegrini; Dybala, Lukaku, El Shaarawy.

AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Calabria, Thiaw, Gabbia, Theo Hernández; Bennacer, Reijnders; Pulisic, Loftus-Cheek, Leão; Giroud

Match OPTA Stats: ‘misfiring’ AC Milan have a great record in the capital

Roma have lost three of their last four home games against Milan in all competitions (D1), more than they had in their previous 16 against them (W7 D7 L2).
Milan have already won 2-1 at Roma in Serie A this season – the last team to win two away games against them in the same campaign were Fiorentina in 2014-15.
This is Roma’s third home game in European competition against a fellow Italian side – they beat Internazionale 1-0 in the 1991 UEFA Cup final second leg, and lost 3-0 to Fiorentina in the 2014-15 UEFA Europa League round of 16.
Milan have only lost one of their six European away games against fellow Italian sides (W2 D3), though it did come in their most recent such match against Internazionale in last season’s UEFA Champions League.
After their 1-0 win in the first leg, Roma are looking to win both legs of a major European competition knockout tie for the first time since the 2020-21 UEFA Europa League last 16 vs Shakhtar Donetsk, while they have never previously done so against a fellow Italian side.
Milan have been eliminated from each of the last eight occasions they have lost at home in the first leg of a two-legged knockout tie in major European competitions, last progressing in the inaugural 1955-56 European Cup first round against 1. FC Saarbrücken after losing the first leg 3-4 (7-5 on aggregate)
AC Milan took 25 shots without scoring in the first leg against Roma, the second time this season that they had so many without scoring in a European match (also 25 against Newcastle in the Champions League in September).

Roma Fixtures: huge games to end the season

Vs Bologna (H)
Vs Napoli (A)
Vs Juventus (H)
vs Atalanta (A)
vs Genoa (H)

AC Milan Fixtures: back-to-back Serie A’s classics

Vs Inter (H)
Vs Juventus (A)
Vs Genoa (H)
Vs Cagliari (H)
Vs Torino (A)

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