Football 
Horse Racing Roma vs Lazio Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
Saturday’s derby in the Eternal City dominates matchday 31 in Serie A and our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has delivered Roma vs Lazio prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview.
Prediction: Roma 1-0 Lazio
Six points in the table separates the two sides as Lazio, following the arrival of new manager Igor Tudor, hope to turn their fortunes as their city rivals did back in January after they hired Daniele De Rossi.
- Roma vs Lazio Tip 1: Half-time Result: Draw
- Roma vs Lazio Tip 2: Roma Asian Handicap -0.25
- Roma vs Lazio Tip 3: Lorenzo Pellegrini Over 0.5 Shots On Target and Romero Luis Alberto 0.5 Shots – Bet Builder
Roma vs Lazio Prediction 1: Tense and Cagey, a proper derby
Italy, Serie A, Saturday, March 6th, 17:00 (UK)
Back-to-back games against Juventus have left good feelings about Igor Tudor’s first week at Lazio.
Despite the Biancocelesti having suffered a 2-0 defeat in Turin in the Coppa Italia semi-final, their aggressive approach in last Saturday’s league game and the positive first half in midweek are encouraging signals that their season can still be saved.
But with Lazio, six points adrift from Roma, currently occupying the fifth spot that, based on the UEFA ranking, will guarantee participation in next season’s Champions League, the derby on Saturday will represent a crossroad for Tudor’s men.
In his first game in charge, the Croat manager showed he’s not afraid of taking the difficult choices as, against Juve, he launched from the start both Valentín Castellanos (leaving Ciro Immobile on the bench) and Daichi Kamada.
The Japanese midfielder, signed in the summer to replace Sergej Milinković-Savić, had been a peripheral figure so far (only one goal and one assist), but against the Bianconeri he played one of his best games of the season and helped Lazio dominate possession.
As expected, Lazio pressed high and showed great intensity till the very end.
Their reward came thanks to Adam Marusic’s goal in stoppage time (the Montenegrin defender hadn’t scored at the Olimpico since 2019), and helped Lazio achieve two league wins a row only for the third time during this campaign.
- Roma vs Lazio Prediction 1: Half-time Result: Draw (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.05
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 3/10
Roma vs Lazio Prediction 2: a season’s crossroad for both
Tudor made five changes to his formation for the Coppa Italia match as Lazio started the first half well but were punished by a couple of lapses of concentration of its center-backs.
The Biancocelesti are now expected to repeat the very same approach in the derby and play more on the front-foot to correct their issues with creating chances.
In fact, they’ve only scored six times (three against Frosinone) in the last seven matches in all competitions, and their attack is the 10th in Serie A with 19 fewer goals than Roma.
The Giallorossi did not convince in their scoreless draw at Lecce, where the home side had more and better chances (the Salentini ended the game with 27 shots against Roma’s 10), but De Rossi’s men complained about not being awarded what it looked like a clear penalty in the second half.
Without both Paulo Dybala, who came off the bench to play the last 10 minutes, and Lorenzo Pellegrini (suspended), Roma seemed unable to find a way to link up the play in attack, as they often resorted to launching long passes towards Romelu Lukaku. The Belgian ended the game with no shots on target and just 24 touches.
- Roma vs Lazio Prediction 2: Roma Asian Handicap -0.25 (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.89
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 3/10
Roma vs Lazio Prediction 3: plenty of cards (of course) but no shortage of quality
The good news for De Rossi, who has only lost one (4-2 against Inter) of his 10 Serie A games in charge, is that his team has kept the fourth clean sheet in the last eight matches and will approach this game full of confidence.
Technically, this is a home fixture for Roma that have scored at least a goal in the last 31 games in all competitions.
Lazio, on the other hand, have only kept ten clean sheets this season (a big drop from the Serie A’s record of 21 last year) but are unbeaten in the last four derbies and three months ago have knocked the Giallorossi out of the Coppa Italia thanks to a 1-0 win.
Lately, the Rome derby has hardly been a classic (three of the last four games ended 1-0, and one finished 0-0) but rather a game of nerves, full-blown agonism and, of course, plenty of cards.
In fact, the last three matches all produced at least seven cards and there have been three sending off in two of the last three derbies.
However, if you have to look for a match-winner it would be worth taking into account both Lorenzo Pellegrini, who returns from suspension and has scored seven goals for club and country since January, and Luis Alberto, Lazio’s most talented player, who has scored three times in this fixture.
- Roma vs Lazio Prediction 3: Lorenzo Pellegrini Over 0.5 Shots On Target and Romero Luis Alberto 0.5 Shots – Bet Builder (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.10
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 4/10
Roma vs Lazio Prediction odds via bet365 as at 07:30, April 2nd, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Roma vs Lazio Team News and Possible Lineups: January’s matchwinner might be out
Lorenzo Pellegrini is available after serving his suspension on Monday against Lecce.
Leonardo Spinazzola is ahead of Angelino to start as left-back. Paulo Dybala will start; Lukaku and El Shaarawy will form the front three with the Argentine.
Ndicka is suspended and will be replaced by Diego Llorente.
In Lazio’s camp goalkeeper Provedel is a doubt, but a quick recovery cannot be ruled out, even if Mandas (who already played the Coppa Italia derby) has had two good performances recently.
Mattia Zaccagni, who scored Lazio’s last goal in this fixture, might be ruled out due to an injury suffered in midweek and could be replaced by Luis Alberto.
The only doubt for Tudor is whether to stick with Castellanos up front or to choose the club all-time goalscorer Ciro Immobile, who has scored four goals in the derby.
Roma possible starting lineup: Svilar; Celik, Mancini, Llorente, Angelino; Cristante, Paredes, Pellegrini; Dybala, Lukaku, El Shaarawy.
Lazio possible starting lineup: Mandas; Gila, Romagnoli, Casale; Marusic, Guendouzi, Cataldi, Isaksen; Felipe Anderson, Luis Alberto; Castellanos.
The Predicted Roma vs Lazio Serie A Standings by BETSiE
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Serie A standings ahead of the Roma vs Lazio, currently 5th vs 7th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Roma vs Lazio Standings Prediction
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 38 | 29.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 88.1 | 23.9 | 64.2 | 93.2 |
| 2 | Juventus | 38 | 23.4 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 58.6 | 26.2 | 32.4 | 79.6 |
| 3 | AC Milan | 38 | 21.8 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 70.0 | 47.8 | 22.2 | 72.5 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 38 | 21.0 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 71.7 | 39.9 | 31.8 | 69.2 |
| 5 | Bologna | 38 | 17.2 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 53.1 | 37.3 | 15.8 | 63.9 |
| 6 | AS Roma | 38 | 17.6 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 62.0 | 43.6 | 18.5 | 61.2 |
| 7 | Lazio | 38 | 17.7 | 7.5 | 12.8 | 47.7 | 38.8 | 8.9 | 60.5 |
| 8 | Napoli | 38 | 16.7 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 55.6 | 44.0 | 11.6 | 59.6 |
| 9 | Fiorentina | 38 | 15.9 | 8.3 | 13.8 | 54.3 | 46.1 | 8.2 | 56.0 |
| 10 | Torino | 38 | 13.6 | 12.8 | 11.6 | 36.4 | 35.3 | 1.1 | 53.7 |
| 11 | Monza | 38 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 14.5 | 37.7 | 50.0 | -12.3 | 45.9 |
| 12 | Genoa | 38 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 14.6 | 38.2 | 47.2 | -9.0 | 44.9 |
| 13 | Udinese | 38 | 7.3 | 17.5 | 13.2 | 39.7 | 54.6 | -14.8 | 39.4 |
| 14 | Lecce | 38 | 9.1 | 12.0 | 16.9 | 41.0 | 60.6 | -19.6 | 39.3 |
| 15 | Sassuolo | 38 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 19.7 | 47.9 | 65.8 | -17.9 | 38.1 |
| 16 | Frosinone | 38 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 20.4 | 47.0 | 73.6 | -26.6 | 36.8 |
| 17 | Empoli | 38 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 19.0 | 32.4 | 56.8 | -24.4 | 36.2 |
| 18 | Verona | 38 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 18.8 | 36.8 | 52.2 | -15.4 | 34.8 |
| 19 | Cagliari | 38 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 20.4 | 39.0 | 68.6 | -29.6 | 33.1 |
| 20 | Salernitana | 38 | 4.2 | 9.7 | 24.0 | 31.3 | 76.3 | -44.9 | 22.4 |
Match Stats: can De Rossi invert the trend?
- Lazio are unbeaten in the last four derbies, having won three of them with the same scoresheet (1-0).
- Under previous manager Josè Mourinho Roma only won one of their last six games against their city rivals.
- There have been at least three red cards in two of the last three derbies.
- During his playing career for Roma manager Daniele De Rossi held a good record against Lazio (14W/7D/2L). He scored twice in this fixture but he has also been cautioned 13 times (12 yellow cards, one red).
Roma Fixtures: next up the European derby
- Vs AC Milan, Europa League (A)
- Vs Udinese (A)
- Vs AC Milan, Europa League (H)
- Vs Bologna (H)
- Vs Napoli (A)
Lazio Fixtures: home factor will be key
- Vs Salernitana (H)
- Vs Genoa (A)
- Vs Juventus, Coppa Italia (H)
- Vs Verona (H)
- Vs Monza (A)
Safer Gambling
At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.
