Roma vs Leverkusen Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

The rematch of last season’s Europa League semi-final is hours away and our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has prepared Roma vs Leverkusen prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview.

Prediction: Roma 2-1 Leverkusen

The Giallorossi are eyeing their third consecutive continental final but the German side, still unbeaten this season, are chasing an historic treble. It promises to be a fascinating, high-octane, battle between two of Europe’s most in-form sides. 

• Roma vs Leverkusen Tip 1: Both Teams To Score – Yes
• Roma vs Leverkusen Tip 2: Goal After 69:59
• Roma vs Leverkusen Tip 3: Leandro Paredes To Be Booked

Roma vs Leverkusen Prediction 1: unbeaten, but not unbeatable

Europa League, Semi-final, first leg, Thursday, May 2nd, 20:00 (UK)

How things have changed in less than one year – last season Roma approached the first leg of the Europa League semi-final on the back of four winless games. 

Back then the Giallorossi were struggling to score goals (they only had 45 in the league, their worst ever tally since 1993/1994), and resorted to a typical Josè Mourinho’s performance to qualify for the final. 

In May 2023, the Germans had already lost 16 times in all competitions and had slightly improved their form since the disastrous beginning of the campaign, which led to Gerardo Seoane’s sacking. 

Fast forward eleven months, and Leverkusen have conquered their first ever domestic title and are on course to achieve an historic treble. 

The hosts have been revitalized since Daniele De Rossi replaced Mou and are serious candidates to return to play Champions League football after five year’s absence. 

The visitors, still unbeaten after 46 games, have only failed to score once this season whereas Roma have netted in all their last 33 home games in all competitions. 

Both sides have shown some defensive flaws lately (there have been no clean sheets in the last four for Roma, and none in the previous three games for Leverkusen), and everything points towards an open game. 

• Roma vs Leverkusen Prediction 1: Both Teams To Score – Yes (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

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Roma vs Leverkusen Prediction 2: two masters of late drama

After shrugging off the perennial ‘Neverkusen’ tag, Xabi Alonso’s men are on a mission to keep their unbeaten run going until the end of the campaign.

While Leverkusen may not surpass Bayern’s points record of 91 from the 2012/13 season, the prospect of clinching three trophies, all while remaining unbeaten, is a feat that could etch their name in football history. 

Beyond winning trophies, having a place in history matters. Just look at how widely Leverkusen celebrated those two late goals against Borussia Dortmund and Stuttgart. 

The German champions scored 21 times after the 86th minute, and their Europa League campaign was marked by two heroic comebacks against Quarabag. 

While relying solely on last-minute heroics may not be a sustainable strategy in the long run (as Liverpool fans can attest), it’s a testament to the unwavering team spirit and mental fortitude of the North Rhine-Westphalia squad.

This match will be Leverkusen’s biggest test since mid-February when they dispatched Bayern Munich in style. In fact, Roma’s home record is impressive: they’ve only lost one of the last 25 home matches in the Europa League.

The Giallorossi reacted well on Sunday after going 2-1 behind against Napoli and equalized thanks to Tammy Abraham’s first goals of the season. 

It was the 14th goals Roma scored in the last 15 minutes of games (only AC Milan have done better, with 15), as eight of them have come at the ‘Stadio Olimpico’.

• Roma vs Leverkusen Prediction 2: Goal After 69:59 (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 6/10

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Roma vs Leverkusen Prediction 3: another feisty affair, like last season

When it comes to knockout ties in Europe, Roma’s home crowd is playing a decisive part. 

In fact, Daniele De Rossi’s team haven’t lost a European knockout game at home since 2017 against Villareal when the current manager was still playing for the Giallorossi.

Since then the hosts have won 16 and drawn three games, beating teams of the caliber of Liverpool, Barcelona, Manchester United and Real Sociedad. 

Against Napoli, De Rossi’s men looked a bit leggy in the first half due also to the fact they had to play 25 minutes in Udine in midweek and were saved by a couple of last-ditch tackles made by Mancini and N’Dicka as well as Svilar’s saves.

Unlike a year ago Roma won’t just sit back and defend but will probably have to endure spells where Leverkusen will dominate the possession.

Last season’s games were also very feisty, with seven players booked in the first leg and nine in the return match. 

Roma are the team that has collected more yellow cards in Serie A (87), and Leandro Paredes has got 14 of them, which makes him the most cautioned player in Italy’s top flight. 

But the Argentine midfielder is not a risk of suspension for the second leg and that increases the chances of him getting a booking. 

• Roma vs Leverkusen Prediction 3: Leandro Paredes To Be Booked (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.75
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 3/10

Roma vs Leverkusen Prediction odds via bet365 as at 11:20, April 29th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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Roma vs Leverkusen Team News and Possible Lineups: no ‘Big Rom’ for the hosts

Celik is suspended and will be replaced by Karsdorp who was given a full rest at the weekend. Spinazzola is ahead of Angelino to play as left-back. Paredes, who did not play at the weekend due to suspension, will return in midfield, with Cristante and Pellegrini either side of him.

Dybala and El Shaarawy will play up front behind Abraham or Azmoun. Lukaku might only be fit to be on the bench.

Leverkusen will line up with the usual 3-4-3 formation. Kovar will be defending the Germans’ posts, while the defensive trio will be made up of Stanisic, Tah and Tapsoba. 

Frimpong and Grimaldo will act on the flanks, while Palacios and Xhaka will form the midfield pair. In attack, Adli and Wirtz will play alongside Boniface. Former Roma player Schick should start from the bench.

Roma possible starting lineup:
Svilar; Karsdorp, Mancini, Ndicka, Spinazzola; Cristante, Paredes, Pellegrini; Dybala, Abraham, El Shaarawy.

Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Kovar; Stanisic, Tah, Tapsoba; Frimpong, Xhaka, Palacios, Grimaldo; Adli, Boniface, Wirtz.

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Match Stats: Leverkusen are a goal machine in Europe

• Roma have reached the semi-finals in each of the last four seasons in European competitions. Among Italian teams, only Juventus has had more consecutive seasons ending with at least the semi-final reached in the major European competitions (five between 1994/95 and 1998/99) – four also for Inter between 1963/64 and 1966 /67.
• Roma and Bayer Leverkusen have met in six previous matches in the major European competitions: two Giallorossi successes, three draws and a German victory. The new German champions are one of the two German teams most faced by the Giallorossi in these tournaments (six matches also with Bayern Munich – 1W, 5D).
• After the first four European meetings between the two teams in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League (1W, 2D, 1L between 2004/05 and 2016/16), Roma will meet Bayer Leverkusen again in the semi-finals of the UEFA Europa League the second consecutive season: in 2022/23 it was the Giallorossi who went through, thanks to a 1-0 home success in the first leg and a 0-0 draw in the return match.
• Only Liverpool (29) have scored more goals than Bayer Leverkusen (27) in the 2023/24 UEFA Europa League.

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Roma Fixtures: UCL qualification is on the line

• Vs Juventus (H)
• Vs Leverkusen, Europa League (A)
• Vs Atalanta (A)
• Vs Genoa (H)
• Vs Empoli (A)

Leverkusen Fixtures: chasing an historic treble

• Vs Eintracht Frankfurt (A)
• Vs Roma, Europa League (H)
• Vs Bochum (A)
• Vs Augsburg (H)
• Vs Kaiserslautern, DFB-Pokal (A)

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