football | Thursday, July 21, 2022 12:03 PM (Revised at: Friday, July 22, 2022 10:14 AM)

Sam Ingram's Best Value EFL Outright Bets: 2022/23

Sam Ingram

Derby County, Burnley, and Bristol City make up the EFL clubs in the spotlight for Sam Ingram’s go-to outright punts for the new season. Plenty of incomings and just as many out the door at Turf Moor and Pride Park, whilst the Robins look set to move away from their relegation-threatened rivals.

In this article:

Bristol City Outright Bet Tip
Burnley Outright Bet Tip
Derby County Outright Bet Tip
Bristol City vs Reading Outright Bet Tip

All odds quoted are the best odds available as at 11:00 on July 21st 2022. Odds may now differ.

Expect improvement from Bristol City

Fifty-five points is what Bristol City mustered last season. However, despite a positive summer in terms of signings and squad investment, Skybet is offering just shy of Evens for Nigel Pearson’s men to replicate their 2021/22 showing.

There was rarely a dull moment in the Robins’ campaign last season. Goals at both the right and wrong end ensured Bristol City fans were often on the edge of their seats.

Nigel Pearson has highlighted precisely what his side required this summer and moved early to lock in his targets. Luton’s Kal Naismith is the pick of the bunch, offering leadership and defensive solidity that plugs a big problem at the back.

Put simply; Bristol City now boast a better squad than they did last summer. So, to reach the same points tally with what is seemingly a better squad on paper is an angle that provides a sturdy outright position for the upcoming instalment of the Championship.

Selection: Bristol City to Reach 55 Championship Points
Odds: 1.83
Bookmaker: SkyBet

Burnley will leave local rivals behind

The Regional Winner market has always been a favourite of mine, with plenty of value often found in picking the top-performing Midlands Club, or the side most likely to perform head and shoulders above the rest in the South West, for example.

Burnley were initially available at 3.00 on Unibet to finish above Blackburn, Stoke, Coventry, and Wigan – something of a steal. However, now at 2.10 on bet365 without Stoke and Coventry, I believe there’s still plenty of value given the sides vying for top spot. Blackburn under new management (4.00), Preston (5.50), Blackpool (9.00), and Wigan (9.00) make up the clubs in the North West category on bet365.

The Jon Dahl Tomasson era at Ewood Park may provide the noisy neighbour-type competition to make this uncomfortable. Regardless, with the noise emanating from Burnley’s camp and the calibre of new signings through the door, I wouldn’t be surprised if Rovers lagged far behind their Greater Manchester-based counterparts.

Selection: Burnley Top North West club (vs Blackburn, Preston, Blackpool, Wigan)
Odds: 2.10
Bookmaker: bet365

As will Derby County…

Secondly, it really comes down to Derby vs Shrewsbury to be crowned League One’s Top Midland’s Club. Lincoln City (7.00), Burton Albion (8.00) and Port Vale (9.00) are the sides tasked to upset the apple cart against a short-priced Rams outfit.

Derby’s activity in the transfer market at the time of writing should encourage Rams fans. The Premier League and Championship experience in abundance suggest County will be aiming for the loftier heights of League One in 2022/23. And Liam Rosenior isn’t done yet. As the transfer market often encourages, there are rumours aplenty about who’s next in the door. Kemar Roofe is one that will get tongues wagging near Pride Park, as well as another likely foray into the loan market to accompany Brighton loanee Haydon Roberts.

Although there’s value in that 1.72 price as a single, I’ll be doubling it up with another selection at the same odds in what will be my main outright Championship double for 2022/23.

Selection: Derby County Top Midlands Club (vs Shrewsbury, Lincoln, Burton, Port Vale)
Odds: 1.72
Bookmaker: bet365

Bristol City will top M4 clash

Nigel Pearson and his backroom staff will be quietly confident his Robins side has the ammunition to sneak a top-half finish this term. All of QPR, Hull City, Blackburn and Bristol City will be aiming for the top 12. These are alll sides judged by the bookmakers to flirt with mid-table and below at the end of the Championship season.

The level of competition throws the top-half finish into dispute, but for me, the Bristolians can kick on and coast away from the relegation places. Reading FC, on the other hand, may not be so lucky. Paul Ince’s Royals are undoubtedly one of the weakest in the division and should ready themselves for another relegation scrap alongside the likes of newly-promoted Rotherham.

In 2021/22, Bristol City only finished four points ahead of Reading. Nevertheless, those four places amassed a 14-point gulf between the pair. John Swift’s departure from the Madejski Stadium was always on the cards this summer. Twenty-four goal contributions is what the 27-year-old West Brom-bound man mustered for a stuttering Reading last term, a void that will not be easily filled. Josh Laurent, who featured in 41 Championship matches last season, also vacates to Stoke City.

Paul Ince got in his son’s ear and gained a recruit for the season ahead after a January loan audition at the back end of last campaign. Premier League experience follows Ince-number-two through the door in Shane Long and Jeff Hendrick. At 35 years old, Long isn’t the player he was, but he still may well have it in his locker to trouble Championship defences.

All in all, Bristol City appear to have the stronger squad. The Robins come into the campaign in better shape than they did in 2021/22 when reaching 55-points, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that total hit with a month or so to go.

In 2022/23, Reading failed to keep a clean sheet in 41/46 matches – the most in the division. Bristol City were not far behind, shipping goals at the wrong end in 40/46 Championship fixtures. Paul Ince is yet to sign a defender during the off-season, perhaps confident he has what it takes to mould them into a tight-knit defensive unit.

Nigel Pearson, comparatively, has roped in one of the Championship’s best defenders in Luton’s Kal Naismith. The former Hatters centre-back oversaw 16 clean sheets in a commanding season at Kenilworth Road. Kane Wilson also joins from a promotion-winning Forest Green outfit, having notched three goals and 13 assists as a marauding right-back.

Selection: Bristol City vs Reading FC Season Match Bet – Bristol
Odds: 1.72
Bookmaker: bet365