football | Monday, October 10, 2022 10:15 AM (Revised at: Monday, October 10, 2022 2:42 PM)

Sam Ingram’s Early Bird Best Bets: 3 Early Picks for This Week

Sam Ingram

Early Bird Best Bets: October 13th-15th

A dive into Europa League action on Thursday before readying ourselves for Championship and Ligue 1 delights on Saturday afternoon? Perfect. Three picks below that stand out amongst the rest this week.

In this article:

PSV vs FC Zürich Preview & Best Bet
Burnley vs Swansea Preview & Best Bet
Lorient vs Reims Preview & Best Bet

PSV vs FC Zürich Preview

UEFA Europa League, Thursday, October 13th, 20:00 (UK)

Put simply; it was men against boys last Thursday. PSV travelled to Switzerland to face a side residing at the bottom of their domestic league and were greeted with exactly that. A below-par, drab performance not befitting the standard of European competition – especially not the Europa League. After the 1-5 Dutch hammering, Zürich had a crunch six-pointer pencilled in with Winterthur on the weekend.

An FC Zürich under new management pitted their wits against the side second from bottom, six points away from the rest and two ahead of a lowly outfit knocked for five during the week. Genesio Colatrella, from the dugout, saw his FC Zürich eleven dominate play with 73% possession but ultimately prove unable to break down a side at home who have conceded 24 goals in nine matches. That’s the most in Switzerland’s top tier. FC Zürich managed just two shots on target.

That’s far from the response the 2021/22 Swiss Champions will have yearned for. In comparison, PSV went away to SC Heerenveen and registered a 0-1 victory. It could have been more, with seven attempts working the keeper. And there lies the difference between the sides. One is effective at working high-quality goalscoring opportunities, and one is severely lacking at present.

In all honesty, it could’ve been more during PSV’s visit to Zurich. The four first-half goals with no reply set the tone in Switzerland, and I expect the same when an FC Zürich lacking much confidence heads to Eindhoven.

PSV vs FC Zürich Best Bet

PSV can be backed to find the net in both halves at around 1.70, as they did with ease on match day three. Furthermore, with William Hill, the addition of PSV scoring first drags the price up to 1.95. After the four first-half goals last week, this feels like a relatively safe inclusion and one that compliments the need for PSV to score in the initial 45 minutes.

Ruud van Nistelrooy’s PSV have found the net first in 3/4 home matches in the Eredivisie this term. Last season, Rood-Witten oversaw the feat in 12/17 home fixtures in 2021/22 – a league-high for the Dutch top-flight, matching the 71% of games where Ajax also scored first.

Selection: PSV Score Both Halves & Score First Goal (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.95 (William Hill)
Stakes: 10/10

More PSV vs FC Zürich Tips

Burnley vs Swansea Preview

Championship, Saturday, October 15th, 15:00 (UK)

It’s another BTTS pick, so we’ll be looking at the underlying metrics that prop up Swansea’s jaunt up North. In the home dressing room, Burnley’s 18.3xG is bettered by three Championship sides this season. Swansea City aren’t one of them, but the 17.5xG in South Wales isn’t far off. From 13 matches, both sides are averaging well over 1.0xG per90.

At Turf Moor this season, Burnley have ended 90 minutes having mustered less than 1.0xG on just one occasion. That was against Luton Town on match day two. Interestingly, just as The Hatters did, Burnley’s expected goals total has been pipped in 5/13 Championship matches under Vincent Kompany.

The Clarets make their way into the weekend on an eleven-game unbeaten run. We’ll need to see the best version of Russel Martin’s Swans if they’re to muster a points return, though registering on the scoresheet isn’t exactly unheard of against Burnley. In fact, the 5/6 home matches that have banked BTTS is the highest in the division. The 83% of outings at Turf Moor with both teams scoring is also matched at The Hawthorns. Only Bristol City have recorded more BTTS match-ups whilst playing home and away this season. Burnley’s unwanted statistic of 9/12 league fixtures seeing either side score is something Kompany will be actively addressing on the training pitch.

Burnley vs Swansea Best Bet

So, despite the wealth of talent in Burnley, Swansea’s forward line should be rubbing their hands together. Only three of the Welsh side’s 13 Championship matches have ended without a Swans strike. Away from home, the 83% BTTS rate (5/6) is solely pipped by a goal-fuelled Bristol City on the road.

That should provide punters with a bit of reassurance. Considering the above, it also raises doubts over the 1.91 price. Another successful BTTS pick on Saturday will make it four on the bounce away from home for Swansea whilst suggesting the odds at Skybet were somewhat of a smash-and-grab.

Selection: Yes on BTTS
Best Odds: 1.91 (Skybet)
Stakes: 10/10

More Burnley vs Swansea Tips

Lorient vs Reims Preview

France, Ligue 1, Saturday, October 15th, 16:00 (UK)

Lorient are still being overlooked in the market. Despite the eight wins and one draw from ten in Ligue 1, Saturday’s hosts, who brag just one fewer point than PSG, can be picked up at a best-priced 2.30 for the win. Reims coped excellently with the aforementioned Parisians at the weekend, though a 41st-minute Sergio Ramos red card certainly aided efforts. That’s the Spaniard’s 28th career red card.

It’s now seven consecutive matches where a red card has been shown in a Reims Ligue 1 fixture, and the eighth in total for the season. Nevertheless, Reims will undoubtedly need eleven on the pitch when making the trip to Lorient. A Terem Moffi brace overturned a 1-0 deficit on the road to Brest in Les Merlus’ last fixture, showing the grit and desire to claw their way back into the game in unfamiliar surroundings.

At home? Well, Lorient have won all four matches this season. Three of the teams they beat should be fighting it out for European football this term, showcasing precisely how impressive Lorient have handled themselves to date. All of Lille, Nantes, Lyon, and Clermont Foot were put to the sword at the Stade du Moustoir.

Lorient vs Reims Best Bet

With half of the stake returned in the event of a draw, Lorient’s -0.25 Asian Handicap is one to consider. Reims have won just once in 2022/23 against Angers, conceding 19 goals in ten matches. The 21 scored in as many fixtures for a Lorient squad riding a wave of optimism suggests they may stumble upon some joy next weekend.

Selection: Lorient -0.25 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.97 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

Odds via bet365 and William Hill as at 10:00, October 10th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

More Lorient vs Reims Tips

What are Football Best Bets?

Our best bets are posted by some of the best tipsters around. These are our tipsters best value bets. A best bet can be placed on any number of different markets. The most common of which are 1X2, the Asian handicap, BTTS, and the goals markets. Value can be found in matches from leagues across the world. Be sure to follow bettingexpert for the latest best bets.