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Sam Ingram’s early bird best bets this week are populated by fixtures falling on Saturday and Sunday. We’ll then conclude with what will hopefully be a goals galore meeting on Monday populate. Three odds-against prices that should be much shorter leading up to their respective slots in this weekend’s football schedule.
In this article:
England, Championship, Saturday, October 1st, 15:00 (UK)
Norwich are the Championship’s form team, winning six of seven. A 1-1 draw to West Brom before the international break presented as the only blip in their unbeaten stretch. Five of the last seven matches have seen Norwich hit two or more goals.
Delving a little deeper, five of the seven outings have mustered at least a 2.0xG total by the Canaries. Only against West Brom (1.30xG) and Millwall (1.83xG) at home have they produced less. As a result, Norwich now finds themselves leading the division in expected goals, registering 16.8xG in ten fixtures.
Regardless of Saturday’s opposition, Dean Smith’s men and their recent purple patch provide a good starting point for the proposed selection. Their opponents for this one are Blackpool, a team that doesn’t offer the most robust of defences. In fact, The Seasiders rank third-worst for expected goals against. Hull City and Birmingham City are the two sides who unwantedly trump Blackpool’s 15.8xGA after ten matches.
Considering the above and with Teemu Pukki and Josh Sargent primed to cause trouble to most Championship defences, with Marcelino Núñez never too far away from the action, Paddy Power’s 2.20 is inviting.
Of course, this league has its pitfalls, and locking in a winner is never straightforward, but backing Norwich right now feels much safer than markets elsewhere in the division.
France, Ligue 1, Sunday, October 2nd, 12:00 (UK)
Both Lorient and Lille head back into work after the international break as the two top teams for BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals punters in Ligue 1. Lille matches this season have paid out the selection in 7/8, whilst Lorient has banked for punters in 6/8. In short, there have been goals wherever these two have roamed in the opening stages in France’s top flight.
The pick has served up a green tick in all three of Lorient’s home fixtures at the Stade du Monsoir, with bums off seats with some regularity in Lorient this term. On the other hand, when Sunday’s visitors have travelled away from home this season, 75% of matches have made the selection pay.
Not only do both sides do well in the proposed market, but as you may expect, BTTS has also been a go-to for those following the pair in 2022/23. Lille have overseen BTTS-Yes in 8/8 matches in Ligue 1, showing a penchant for goals coming at either end. Lorient’s 6/8 has them neck and neck with a host of teams in second, close to Lille’s 100% tally.
After narrowly avoiding relegation last season, Lorient are on the march in Ligue 1. Currently in third place and now steered by new manager Régis Le Bris at the helm, expect this Lorient side to continue to upset the applecart.
With the form of Enzo Le Fee orchestrating play amongst a side keen to pounce on loose balls and progress upfield quickly, Lorient could well build on their four successive wins and trouble Lille here.
England, Premier League, Monday, October 3rd, 20:00 (UK)
A limp Leicester City in turmoil at the foot of the Premier League welcomes a Nottingham Forest side who have lost four consecutive matches. It’s a bit of a wake-up call for Steve Cooper, currently enduring his longest losing streak as Forest boss. However, it could be worse. Brendan Rodgers can attest to that.
The Foxes have lost six matches on the bounce from a winless seven league outings without a clean sheet this season. The suspect Wesley Fofana-less defence doesn’t suggest the ability to shut out another Premier League side is present, with any Leicester win likely needing to be born from outscoring opposition instead of grinding out results.
On the back of two 2-3 losses against fellow newly promoted clubs, Forest certainly have enough firepower to make Leicester’s situation even more uncomfortable. However, the more pressing questions for Forest’s squad, like Leicester, lies in the defensive third – specifically in central defence. It’s an area where you’d expect James Maddison and company to find joy against Steve Cook and Joe Worrall, to name just two of a back five that could have a new look to it after the international break.
Steve Cooper will have had the chance to bed in new signings on the training pitch in search of a more cohesive and sturdy back line – something that’s not easy at this level. Although losing 6-2 after a 5-2 scoreline the previous week, Leicester’s performance in the first half in London was much-improved. If we get the same Leicester City we saw in spells against Tottenham, they’ll find the back of the net during Monday night football.
Best odds as at 09:00 September 27th, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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