Scott Thornton’s Premier League Props: Newcastle to End Their Long Wait?

Scott Thornton brings you five bets from the Premier League and one for the EFL Cup Final ahead of a busy weekend in English football. 

On Saturday, we look ahead to Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest and Manchester City vs Brighton before Bournemouth host Brentford. Sunday’s league games see Chelsea head to the Emirates to take on Arsenal and Leicester take on Manchester United. Inbetween those matches, Newcastle aim to win their first trophy since 1955 when they face Liverpool at Wembley.

• Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest: Over 10.5 Shots For Ipswich
• Manchester City vs Brighton: Under 24.5 Shots In The Match
• Bournemouth vs Brentford: Over 36.5 Throws In The Match
• Arsenal vs Chelsea: Over 32.5 Tackles In The Match
• Leicester vs Manchester United: Over 33.5 Throws In The Match
• Newcastle vs Liverpool: Over 5.5 Second Half Shots For Newcastle

Acca odds: 43.29

Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest: The Tractor Boys on the Front Foot

England, Premier League, Saturday, 15th March, 15:00 (UK)

Ipswich are six points from safety with 10 games remaining of the Premier League season so it really is no or never for Kieran McKenna’s side. The Tractor Boys haven’t won a league game since the end of December, when they earned a 3-0 victory over Chelsea. Since then, they have lost seven of their nine league outings.

Nottingham Forest are on cloud nine after beating Manchester City. The impressive win over the reigning champions has left them in a good position to make it into the top four. The team have thrived on the counter this season. 

With it being do-or-die for the home side, we are backing them to have shots here. Ipswich had 15 shots in their last game at Selhurst Park. They have also reached the 15 shot mark in their last two home matches, so over 10.5 looks good here. 

Nuno’s side average the least possession in the league with 39%. This has afforded their opponents to get plenty of shots away in recent away games. In Forest’s last five league games on the road, they have conceded 13 or more with an average of 15.8.

• Selection: Over 10.5 Shots For Ipswich (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Manchester City vs Brighton: Tactical Battle at the Etihad

England, Premier League, Saturday, 15th March, 15:00 (UK)

Amazingly, Manchester City face a fight to make it into the top four. Pep Guardiola’s side were the odds on favourites to win the title at the start of the campaign but things haven’t gone according to plan. They were beaten 1-0 by Nottingham Forest last weekend, leaving them 5th in the table.

Brighton have won their four league games since losing 7-0 against Forest at the City Ground on February 1st. They are up to 7th in the table and could move above Pep’s team with a win here. They beat City in the reverse fixture but have lost their last eight at the Etihad. 

There have been 24 shots or less in Manchester City’s alst five Premier League matches. They have faced four sides who are currently in the top six over that period and Tottenham. Those games saw just 20.6 attempts on average so the bookmaker’s line looks a little high here.

Our bet has also won in five of Brighton’s last six league matches on the road. Their recent trips to this ground have also seen very few attempts. The Seagulls last five games at the Etihad have seen an average of 18.8 shots with this bet winning in all of five. 

• Selection: Under 24.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Bournemouth vs Brentford: The Cherries Sweeten the Throw Count

England, Premier League, Saturday, 15th March, 17:30 (UK)

Bournemouth are 9th in the Premier League but the underlying data suggests they should be much higher. Only Liverpool and Arsenal have a better xPTS (expected points) total that the Cherries. They have failed to win any of their last three league games and need to get back to winning ways here as they challenge for a place in Europe.

Brentford have won their last four league matches away from the GTech Community Stadium. However, their away form has been poor during that period so they have slipped to 12th in the table. The Bees haven’t lost any of their five Premier League games against Bournemouth. 

Adoni Iraola likes his team to be aggressive without the ball and be ambitious when they have it. This high-risk, high-reward approach has meant that Bournemouth matches have seen an average of 39.64 throws, the most in the Premier League. Over 36.5 throws has landed in their last four league games. 

Brentford matches see far fewer throws with an average of 31.18 but this bet landed with ease when the teams met earlier in the season with 40 throws. There were 39 throws the last time the teams squared off at this ground. 

• Selection: Over 36.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Arsenal vs Chelsea: Tackles Galore as Rivals Clash

England, Premier League, Sunday, 15th March, 13:30 (UK)

Arsenal’s title challenge is all but over. They have failed to keep pace with Arne Slot’s Liverpool. Their cause hasn’t been helped by the plethora of injuries to their forward line but Arteta will want to build momentum with the team competing to win the Champions League.

Chelsea were in the title race at one stage but a rotten festive period has proved costly. Finishing in the top four is now the challenge for Enzo Maresca’s side. They go into the weekend two points clear of Manchester City.

Tackles were scarce when these sides met at Stamford Bridge but we usually see plenty when they lock horns. The last five head-to-heads between the sides have seen an average of 33.8, 1.3 more than the bookmaker’s line here. Arsenal’s Premier League matches have seen an average of 35.23 tackles.

The Blues’ away matches have seen an average of 34.93 tackles. Chelsea lost 5-0 in this fixture last season and will be keen to show more fight, which should result in tackles. 

• Selection: Over 32.5 Tackles In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Leicester vs Manchester United: Ruud’s Chance at Redemption

England, Premier League, Sunday, 15th March, 19:00 (UK)

Ruud van Nistelrooy has been unable to steer Leicester away from the relegation zone. He earned the job at the King Power Stadium thanks to an impressive spell as interim boss at Manchester United but he has been unable to translate that success to the Foxes. They have now lost their last six competitive matches.

Manchester United are playing for pride in the Premier League. European qualification is now beyond their reach so this season is all about Ruben Amorim developing his style of play. The Red Devils have ambitious plans for the future, unveiling a new stadium design earlier in the week, but those plans will have to wait. 

Leicester’s Premier League matches have seen an average of 36 throws. Their home matches under Ruud have seen 34.88 throws on average so we are backing over 33.5 here. 

The Red Devils’ away matches in the league have seen an average of 32.69 throws per game. However, there were 43 throws when these teams met in the FA Cup in February. 

• Selection: Over 33.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Liverpool vs Newcastle: Monumental Occasion for the Magpies

England, EFL Cup Final, Sunday, 15th March, 16:30 (UK)

Liverpool were knocked out of the Champions League by PSG on Tuesday night. Arne Slot’s side played their part in a gruelling tie that went all the way to penalties. The Dutchman will be hoping his team still have enough in the tank to pick up the first piece of silverware of his reign here.

This is a monumental game for Newcastle. They made it to the final of the EFL Cup a couple of seasons ago when they were beaten by Manchester United. Their last cup triumph came in 1955 but they have the chance to end that wait on Sunday. 

Liverpool have conceded an average of 5.6 shots in the second half in their last 10 matches in all competitions. Fatigue will likely set in for Slot’s men as the game reaches its climax so the Reds could concede a fair few shots, particularly if they already have a lead.

Eddie Howe’s team looked toothless when they played Liverpool at Anfield last month but they were without Alexander Isak. Newcastle are average 4.5 shots in the second half in their last 10 but the occasion should inflate that number. 

• Selection: Over 5.5 Second Half Shots For Newcastle (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Premier League Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 09:04, March 13th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

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