football | Thursday, July 27, 2023 8:37 AM (Revised at: Thursday, July 27, 2023 12:00 PM)

Scott Thornton’s Top Five Outright Best Bets 2023-24: Ferguson to shine amongst the rest

Scott Thornton

The return of Europe’s major leagues is drawing ever closer, and we have five bets for you before the action gets underway.
The bets cover a range of markets and prices. We’ve delved a little deeper to provide you with all the statistics and information you need before the big kick-off in a few weeks. The transfer window is in full swing, and it’ll be interesting to see how players on the move settle in at their new clubs.

In this article:

Onana To Win The Golden Glove
Napoli To Win Serie A
Evan Ferguson To Score 15 Or More Goals
Jude Bellingham To Score Over 5.5 League Goals
Bruno Fernandes To Have The Most Premier League Assists

Premier League Golden Glove Outright: Onana to Fill De Gea’s Boots

England, Premier League, Golden Glove

For our first outright bet, we are looking at this season’s potential candidates for the Golden Glove award in the Premier League. There is no doubting City’s superiority in England, but Ederson is priced a little short at 1.80.

David De Gea made several high-profile errors at the back end of last season that cost him his role as Manchester United’s number one if reports are to be believed. The Spaniard has since left the club and has been replaced by Andre Onana. De Gea won the Golden Glove in the Premier League last season and was the only goalkeeper with more than 15 clean sheets.

Manchester United’s defence was lacklustre at times last season, particularly away from home. They conceded seven at Anfield, six at the Etihad and four at The Brentford Community Stadium, so it was slightly surprising that De Gea won the Golden Glove by three clean sheets.

Onana is set to slot right in as the number-one goalkeeper. He enjoyed a stellar season for Inter, and his display in the Champions League final against Manchester City grabbed a lot of people’s attention. His ability with the ball at his feet has been cited as a key reason he was brought in, but he is no slouch in the saving department.

I would be surprised if Manchester United competed for the title this season, but 6.00 for a goalkeeper to win the Golden Glove when his predecessor accomplished that feat last season looks a good bet.

Selection: Andre Onana To Win The Golden Glove
Odds: 6.00
Bookmaker: bet365
Stakes: 4/10

Serie A Winner Outright: Napoli to Reign Supreme Once Again

Italy, Serie A, To Win Outright

Napoli were one of the best teams in Europe last season. They won Serie A for the first time since Diego Maradona donned their famous blue shirt as they brushed aside the competition. They eventually won the league by a whopping 26 points, and many of their star players look set to stay put this season.

There have been departures at the club. Luciano Spalletti has opted to take a break from management, claiming he “no longer has the energy to be up top the standard of what people love so much.” He has been replaced by Rudi Garcia, who has a lot to prove, having returned to Europe from Saudi Arabia. Garcia has previously won the French league with Lille, and this is a fantastic opportunity to charge of a squad brimming with talent.

Kim-Min Jae has also left the club after a lucrative offer from Bayern Munich was accepted. However, crucially, Victor Osimhen and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia look set to remain at the club with eye-watering valuations placed on both players.

The 4.00 seems a little big for a side that was a runaway success last season. Osimhen top scored Serie A with 26 goals, and Kvaratskhelia’s dribbling ability had opposing defenders on strings for a period of last season.

It remains to be seen what impact Rudi Garcia will have on this squad and what players the club will bring in during the rest of the transfer window, but Napoli have sufficient quality in their ranks to repeat the success of last season.

Selection: Napoli To Win Serie A
Odds: 4.00
Bookmaker: bet365
Stakes: 6/10

Premier League Player Total Goals: Evan Ferguson to Build on his Breakthrough Season

England, Premier League, Player Total Goals

Brighton earned many plaudits on their way to finishing 6th in the Premier League. They dealt with the loss of Graham Potter exceptionally well and went from strength to strength under Roberto De Zerbi. The Seagulls now have European football to look forward to, and they will no doubt be well-equipped to deal with the rigours of another busy campaign.

Evan Ferguson was one of the big success stories at Brighton last year as he enjoyed a breakout season at the club. The striker made 10 Premier League starts and nine appearances off the bench. There was talk of a big-money move away from the club this summer, but that talk has been confined to the extensive rumour columns that accompany each transfer window.

Ferguson scored six Premier League goals last season, but he did not enter the fray until the 19th of February when he was brought on in a defeat against West Ham. Since then, he has established himself as an integral part of Brighton’s attack.

The Irishman scored in his first senior start for the national team. Ferguson is physically imposing and has the necessary pace to escape his marker. He is also an instinctive finisher. These qualities will serve him well in his first full season at senior level for Brighton.

Ferguson ranked in the 88th percentile for non-penalty xG across Europe’s top five leagues, averaging 0.5 per 90 minutes played. He also ranked in the 88th percentile for total shots per 90 minutes, averaging 3.41. Those numbers should mean he reaches that 15 goals mark should he play the full season.

Selection: Evan Ferguson 15 Goals Or More
Odds: 2.00
Bookmaker: bet365
Stakes: 7/10

Jude Bellingham to Live Up to his Galactico Billing

Spain, La Liga, Jude Bellingham Specials

Jude Bellingham made the switch to Real Madrid from Borussia Dortmund in the summer, and a lot is expected of the midfielder as he joins the behemoth of European football. Ancelotti has a wealth of talent at his disposal, but Jude should star in a team full of world-class talent.

Madrid have several options in midfield and could resort to many tactical shapes over the course of the season. Bellingham is a versatile player and would be an asset to his team wherever they play him. However, he is viewed predominantly as a number 10 by his new club. He featured there in his pre-season debut for Madrid and was singled out by Ancelotti for his ‘unbelievable’ quality.

Bellingham will find himself in advanced areas of the pitch as a number, so chances should fall his way. Jude ranked in the 97th percentile for non-penalty xG across Europe’s top five leagues last season. He ranked in the 99th percentile for non-penalty goals, and one would presume he will have his fair share of chances this season.

Jude scored eight goals for Borussia Dortmund last season, but he was used in a deeper area of midfield. The like of Kroos, Modric, Camavinga, and Valverde will be operating behind him this season, so there is no shortage of quality to pick the Englishman out with a killer pass.

His goal line is much higher with other bookmakers, suggesting this pick on Unibet looks like great value.

Selection: Over 5.5 League Goals For Jude Bellingham
Odds: 1.85
Bookmaker: Unibet
Stakes: 9/10

Premier League Assists Outright: Fernandes’ Creativity to Pay Dividends

England, Premier League, Top Assists

Kevin De Bruyne is a strong favourite in this market, and it’s easy to see why after the campaign that Manchester City have just had. However, we are looking slightly further down in the betting to find some value.

Bruno Fernandes finished last season with eight assists in the Premier League. Manchester United improved in several areas last season, but they were unable to reach the required standard in terms of chance conversion. Erik Ten Hag is in the market for a striker this summer to ensure his side has a focal point in attack next season. Bruno Fernandes is a player who could benefit hugely from a quality acquisition in that area.

Bruno Fernandes is a creative hub in Manchester United’s midfield, and he is an integral part of their attack. Bruno created 119 chances in the Premier League last season, more than any other player. He laid on nine more chances than Martin Odegaard in 2nd place. Bruno also created 21 more chances than De Bruyne, who topped the assists chart. Fernandes also led the chances created statistic in the 2021/22 Premier League season.

The Portuguese midfielder ranked in the 95th percentile for progressive passes amongst the top five leagues and the 97th percentile amongst attacking midfielders or wingers in the Premier League last season. He also ranked in the 98th percentile for shot-creating actions and the 97th percentile for xAssists. With numbers like that, he could easily top the assist chart in the league this season if Manchester United become more clinical in front of goal.

Selection: Bruno Fernandes To Have the Most Assists
Odds: 11.00
Bookmaker: bet365
Stakes: 4/10

Odds via various bookmakers as at 13:00 July 25th 2023. Odds may now differ.

What is a Bet Builder?

A bet builder is a type of accumulator bet focused on a single match. A traditional acca features multiple selections across different matches. These selections are combined to create one bet. If one selection loses, the whole bet loses. A bet builder is similar but each selection is placed on the same match. Similar to American prop bets, bet builders give you the chance to bet on a combination of events in a single match. Common selections include match outcome, total goals, cards, corners, and players to score.