Serie A Acca Tips: Goals galore and potential upsets

All three games I’ve analysed this week involve teams that will represent Italy in UEFA competitions this year, but the full-time results might not be as straightforward as some odds suggest.

In particular, I believe AC Milan and Fiorentina might struggle away from home. In contrast, Lazio, who have an easier task, should maintain the form that earned them second place in the table last season.

• Genoa vs Fiorentina: Both teams to score YES
• Lecce vs Lazio: Lazio -0.25 Asian Handicap
• Bologna v AC Milan: Over 2.5 goals

Acca odds: 7.03

Odds via bet365 as at 4.40pm, Sunday, August 13th. Odds may now differ.

---

Genoa vs Fiorentina: Expect goals at Luigi Ferraris

Italy, Serie A, Saturday, August, 19th, 7.45pm (UK)

Genoa’s American owners kept their promises: Italy’s oldest football club bounced back to Serie A straight away after being relegated in 2021/2022. Managed by 2006 World Cup winner Alberto Gilardino, Genoa like to play on the front foot.

They were Serie B third best attack last season, scoring 53 goals, and deployed an attacking 3-5-2 formation with new signing Mateo Retegui (a brace last weekend against Modena, in Coppa Italia) and Iceland international Albert Gudmundsson (also in goal at the weekend, and who scored 14 goals last season) supported by the skilful Mattia Aramu (7 goals with Venezia in his last season played in Serie A). Il Grifone has also added Junior Messias, from AC Milan, to their squad and should have plenty of goals to stay up.

The visitors have also been renowned for their attacking prowess, averaging 1.63 goals per game last season in all competitions: they were the third team for shots taken in Serie A (603) and first for corners (237).

What Fiorentina lacked since the departure of Dušan Vlahović in January 2021 was a cool, clinical finisher who could put away all the chances they created. Manager Vincenzo Italiano, who took the club to two cup finals (both lost) last year, hopes the new man Lucas Betran (16 goals in 35 games this season with River Plate) will hit the ground running.

Seven of the last Fiorentina games last season have seen both teams scoring, and I think this might be the case also for their debut in Genova.

• Selection: Both teams to score YES
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365

More Genoa vs Fiorentina Tips

---

Lecce vs Lazio: Sarri’s men to get revenge

Italy, Serie A, Sunday, August, 20th, 7.45pm (UK)

Lecce took four out of six points from Lazio last season, which provided decisive for the Salentini to avoid relegation. The hosts stayed up by setting up deep and playing on the counter: they were second from bottom for average ball possession (41.3%) and bottom for shots on target (averaging 2.79 x game).

Having won only two games since February, Lecce, in the end, rode their luck. In the summer, they decided to change manager, hiring Roberto D’Aversa, whose teams have always tried to play offensive football, but so far, they haven’t strengthened a squad that would desperately need a prolific number 9, especially as Assan Ceesay (six goals last season) has moved to Saudi Arabia and 20-years-old Lorenzo Colombo (five goals in the previous campaign) has returned to AC Milan after his loan spell.

Selling Morten Hjulmand, one of Serie A’s best defensive midfielders, will also be a blow, and that’s why I considered them a serious candidate to get relegated in my Serie A ante-post betting preview.

Last year Lazio showed extremely good organisation, keeping 21 clean sheets as they finished the campaign with the second-best defence (only 30 goals conceded).

Despite scoring 17 goals less compared to Maurizio Sarri’s first season in charge, at times, they looked more in control of games and were able to compete well with all the top teams. In fact, they beat, at least once, all the teams who finished in the top eight.

This summer, they’ve lost their main man, Sergej Milinković-Savić (nine goals and eight assists in Serie A last year), but have brought in quality replacements such as Europa League winner Daichi Kamada and Nicolò Rovella. If Valentín Castellanos and Gustav Isaksen can provide the goals too, Lazio are in with a good chance to finish in the top four again, although playing Champions League football will inevitably affect their fitness.

I can’t see Lazio dropping points on their debut, but you might want to take a cautious approach and back them with a -0.25 Asian Handicap: if they draw, you’d only lose half your stake.

• Selection: Lazio -0.25 Asian Handicap
• Best Odds: 1.86
• Bookmaker: bet365

More Lecce vs Lazio Tips

---

Bologna vs AC Milan: A potential banana skin for the visitors

Italy, Serie A, Monday, August, 21th, 7.45pm (UK)

Sell one, buy six. The Rossoneri have rebuilt their squad after cashing on Sandro Tonali, sold for £55 to Newcastle United, and it looks like they have more attacking options.

AC Milan have gone for experienced players (Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Christian Pulisic) and for youngsters (such as Tijjani Reijnders, Samuel Chukwueze, Noah Okafor and Yunus Musah) eager to take their chances in a top team. With such an array of attacking options and players who can be deployed in more than one position, manager Stefano Pioli will look to move away from the sometimes rigid and predictable 4-3-3 system.

Whether AC Milan will play with Pulisic behind a front two or with three attackers, Rafael Leao remains the man who can turn the team’s fortunes.

AC Milan knew they had to add depth to their squad if they wanted to challenge for the Scudetto: last year, they finished fifth (if we don’t take into account Juventus points deductions) and often struggled when they had to rotate many players.

Their away form was particularly concerning as they only won seven games and scored 23 goals (same as Monza and less than Torino, to put numbers into context).

Bologna, on the other hand, hasn’t changed much over the summer despite boss Thiago Motta asking for reinforcements as he’d like to push for a European spot.

The Portuguese manager did brilliantly as he took charge of the Felsinei after six matches. He quickly instilled his side with confidence and played entertaining and attacking football.
Credit to Motta, who had to play most of the season without striker Marko Arnautović because of injury, but found in Riccardo Orsolini (11 goals), Lewis Ferguson (7 goals) and Argentinian midfielder Nicolás Dominguez, the men that helped him to take points from all Serie A’s top teams.

Bologna finished the season strongly, going five games unbeaten, and were solid at home, where they lost only three games. If AC Milan were to come out with three points from Emilia Romagna, I feel they’d have to score more than one goal.

• Selection: Over 2.50 Goals
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: bet365

More Bologna vs AC Milan Tips

---

RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a responsible approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.