Serie A Best Bets: Jan 27th-29th - Value Picks for 5 Matches
Serie A Best Bets: January 27th-28th
Serie A best bets brings you five picks from the weekend’s ten Serie A games, starting with Salernitana’s trip to Lecce on Friday evening. Let’s get started.
In this article:
- Lecce vs Salernitana Preview & Best Bet
- Atalanta vs Sampdoria Preview & Best Bet
- Napoli vs Roma Preview & Best Bet
- Lazio vs Fiorentina Preview & Best Bet
- Cremonese vs Inter Preview & Best Bet
Lecce vs Salernitana Preview
Friday, January 27th, 19:45 (UK)
At home, Lecce faces an average of 11.89 shots at their goal, a touch more than what they currently impose on opponents (11.11) at the other end. However, despite being out-shot, Lecce’s home form, in general, should provide a stable footing for the prospect of the net rustling in their favour.
The Wolves to score in front of a home crowd has materialised in eight of nine matches, with Juventus’ visit the only exception. Highlighting the last three matches at Stadio Via del mare, it’s clear that this is a side of real quality when operating in comfortable surroundings.
Each of AC Milan, Lazio, and Atalanta have ventured to lock horns with The Wolves in Lecce, and each of Italy’s best conceded two at the hands of lowly Lecce – a side fresh from Serie B promotion. Only twice have they lost at home since retaining top-tier status, something you would imagine continues against the team who have conceded the most on their travels in Serie A.
The 24 goals conceded in nine matches is a figure that was dragged up by eight in their last away game. You’d expect Atalanta’s 8-2 victory to be ringing in the minds of every individual in the Salernitana camp, a set of anxieties that may seep out when they step foot over the white lines in their next away match.
Under the gaze of Daniele Doveri in the September head-to-head, four cards found their way out of the Italian’s pocket. Given the stinginess with which Doveri (3.83 cards per90) approaches fixtures in terms of bookings, the law of averages gives us a shot at a similar card rate here. Davide Massa has been appointed to Lecce vs Salernitana, the official with the second-highest yellow card average (5+ matches) in Serie A with 6.00 per90.
Dissecting that 6.00 cards average, you’ll find Massa’s best work is done in the second half, which is no real shock. The 4.00 second-half bookings average has seen both teams carded after the break in 75% of his eight matches.
Lecce vs Salernitana Best Bet
Interestingly, Massa also boasts a 75% hit rate in the first half for both sides being cautioned, despite the drop to a 2.25 average in the initial 45 minutes. It shows that Massa likes to lay a marker down to both teams as a reminder of what’s acceptable and what’s not before the game progresses towards the business end of proceedings.
Taking all of the above into account, as Salernitana arrives intent on proving their worth after the 8-2 embarrassment on their last away day, tempers may flare if things aren’t going their way. A first-half card, one each in the second, and a goal to the hosts comes in just shy of Evens – not the worst way into the game.
- Selection: O0.5 Lecce Goals + O0.5 FH Card + Each Team SH Card
- Best Odds: 2.10 (William Hill)
- Stakes: 10/10
More Lecce vs Salernitana Tips
Atalanta vs Sampdoria Preview
Saturday, January 28th, 19:45 (UK)
The Atalanta price is one to steer away from at 1.33. That is unless you include it in a La Dea-focused bet builder.
Ademola Lookman and Rasmus Højlund, to name just two, are part of an attacking Atalanta unit making life miserable for any defensive line they meet at present. With his time in the Premier League very much in his rearview, Lookman is now enjoying the best chapter in his career to date. Eleven goals from 13 starts (18 appearances) put him just two shy of league-leading Victor Osimhen’s 13-goal haul in Naples.
That’s exceptional and only adds to the lethality of attacking talent at the hands of Gasperini in Bergamo. Just by looking at Atalanta’s recent scores, their capabilities in front of goal become glaringly obvious. Over 2.5 goals has landed in the last eight competitive fixtures, with three (3-3), five(5-2), and eight (8-2) Atalanta strikes in the previous three fixtures.
Atalanta vs Sampdoria Best Bet
With goals being Atalanta’s thing at present, cards whilst travelling away from home is more Sampdoria’s bag. Their 3.78 cards per90 away average from nine matches is the most in Serie A. Coincidentally, Atalanta (3.00) are the closest in this metric away from Bergamo.
Daniele Doveri (3.83), as already mentioned, isn’t the most frivolous with his cards, but something has to give here. If the 90 minutes take shape as one would expect – heavily in the hosts’ favour, assume cards will follow eventually. In the second half, Sampdoria’s 2.33 average figure aligns with Doveri’s 2.17 (Over 1.5 cards in 83%) in the second 45 this season.
- Selection: Atalanta Win, O1.5 Match Goals, and Sampdoria SH Card
- Best Odds: 1.95 (bet365)
- Stakes: 10/10
More Atalanta vs Sampdoria Tips
Napoli vs Roma Preview
Sunday, January 29th, 19:45 (UK)
I like Napoli to win at that price. It may be a little short for some, especially against one of the better sides in Serie A, but Luciano Spaletti’s men look almost invincible at times this campaign.
Suppose Roma are to upset the apple cart and record a win in Naples. In that case, they’ll have to do something no Serie A club has done this season – beat Napoli at the Diego Maradona Stadium in league competition. Admittedly, it’s not quite the perfect record for the hosts, drawing once to Lecce (1-1), but the eight of nine wins suggests just how difficult a proposition Napoli away has become.
Putting Liverpool (4-1), Ajax (4-2), and Rangers (3-0) to the sword indicates it’s not just Italy’s top division that struggles to muster anything of note in Naples. The Famed European elite made hard work of it too.
Napoli vs Roma Best Bet
Jose Mourinho may have wished for nothing other than three points on his birthday on Thursday. Yet, the football gods are rarely so kind.
Although the likes of Tammy Abraham and Paulo Dybala are finding form for the I Giallorossi, who are undefeated themselves since the return of post-World Cup football, it may not be enough.
- Selection: Napoli Win (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.75 (bet365)
- Stakes: 10/10
Lazio vs Fiorentina Preview
Sunday, January 29th, 17:00 (UK)
The last meeting between these sides was a strange one. The 0-4 scoreline certainly flattered Lazio during their trip to Florence. The underlying metrics? They told a different tale. One where the hosts came out on top (2.26xG) vs the Romans (1.58xG) as they piled on the pressure once going behind in the 11th minute.
Lazio proved too clinical for Fiorentina to keep pace. Two goals at either end of the game did the job, as 25 Fiorentina shots rained down on the visitors’ goal. Now, I’m not expecting something similar here, where one side reaches the match shot line alone. However, either side has a tendency to enter into a basketball-type match-up in terms of shots, especially if they find themselves chasing a deficit.
Both components to Sunday’s fixture average double-figured shot averages for both attempted and conceded when playing home/away in 2022/23, which is an appealing trait for this market. However, Lazio’s match shots average of 23.50 falls just shy of the mark we’re hoping for, as does I Viola’s 23.67.
Lazio vs Fiorentina Best Bet
Nevertheless, they’re not too far off. If there’s an early goal in the game and the 90 minutes is allowed to become more open as soon as possible, the season’s shot averages will likely ease and become content with going above and beyond.
After two losses on the bounce to Torino and Roma, I’m hopeful Fiorentina heads to the capital with all guns blazing.
- Selection: Over 23.5 Match Shots
- Best Odds: 1.83 (Boylesports)
- Stakes: 10/10
Cremonese vs Inter Preview
Saturday, January 28th, 17:00 (UK)
Those heralding from the world’s fashion capital will be out to prove a point. Cremonese will be no pushovers, though Simone Inzaghi will demand a swift bounce back to winning ways at the first time of asking following the Empoli defeat earlier in the week.
Milan Škriniar’s 40th-minute midweek red curtailed any hope of an expected victory in blue and black. In fairness, Inter looked leggy, and Empoli impressed both in and out of possession. But, in the end, it halted a run of seven undefeated on either side of the enforced winter break, a stretch that Inzaghi will aim to reignite come Saturday’s visit to Lombardy.
If you’re of a similar stance in expecting Inter to do enough to ease Cremonese aside, you’ll presumably be put off by the 1.50 price on show. Coupling the three points with what should be a byproduct of Inter pressure may be a wise choice.
Cremonese vs Inter Best Bet
Although Cremonese haven’t registered a win this season, I’m hopeful that it will take a little while for the deadlock to be broken after a poor Inter showing midweek. If it does, the corner count should continue to rise.
Inter averages 5.00 corners per90 from their nine away outings this season, whereas their hosts concede 3.52 – the third lowest total in the division.
- Selection: Inter Win & O3.5 Inter Corners
- Best Odds: 1.83 (bet365)
- Stakes: 10/10
Odds via bet365 and Boylesports as at 07:30, January 27th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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