Southampton vs West Brom Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

After a bore draw in the Championship semi-final first leg, Matthew O’Regan has his Southampton vs West Brom prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview. The sides finished one place but 12 points apart, but were an even match last Sunday. Southampton will be looking to capitalise on their home advantage as they chase an instant return to the Premier League, while West Brom will aim to frustrate the Saints. 

• Southampton vs West Brom Tip 1: Alex Mowatt Over 0.5 shots
• Southampton vs West Brom Tip 2: West Brom Over 9.5 shots
• Southampton vs West Brom Tip 3: Southampton Over 5.5 Goal Kicks

Southampton vs West Brom Prediction 1: Shot-Happy Mowatt

England, Championship, Friday, May 17th, 20:00 (UK)

The first leg was a bore draw with nothing splitting the sides. The Baggies accumulated 0.99 xG from 14 shots, compared to Southampton’s 1.00 from 12 shots. It also marked the fourth time in five games that West Brom have failed to win, with Carlos Coberan’s side only beating Rotherham and Preston at home in their last nine games. 

The Spanish manager is left with a dilemma over how he approaches this game. Southampton will dominate the ball as ever, so West Brom will either need to be patient and look to sting the Saints in transition, or be patient and play for penalties. 

With Southampton looking vulnerable at the back – conceding 63 goals in the league, West Brom may feel the best plan of action is to be aggressive and look to force mistakes. 

If that is the case, there looks to be real value in the shots market for the away side. 

Alex Mowatt has had 2,3,3 shots in his last three, having a shot in six of his last eight. The holding midfielder isn’t shy of a long shot and may be afforded the chance to do this late on if Southampton take the lead and are clinging on for victory. An added caveat to this bet is that the 29-year-old is on free kicks. 

• Southampton vs West Brom Prediction 1: Alex Mowatt Over 0.5 Shots
• Best Odds: 2.37
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 6/10

Southampton vs West Brom Prediction 2: Bounce-Back Baggies

Again, if West Brom takes an early lead, this bet looks an uphill task. However, for as long as the Baggies are losing or drawing this bet has legs. 

West Brom have had 14, 16, 23, 18 shots in their last four games and are averaging 11.25 shots per90 this season. 

With the magnitude of the game, both sides are bound to feel pressure, a scenario which ideally suits the visitors. Southampton’s patient possession football can often see the home crowd grow frustrated so West Brom will look to force mistakes and get plenty of shots off. 

Southampton have shown serious defensive fragility this season. Russell Martin’s side have conceded over 11 shots per game this season, conceding 14,11,15,17,12,1,12, 9,11, and 13 over their last ten games. In the first leg, West Brom hit 14 shots with seven coming in the first half. 

Alex McCarthy has only started six games this season, so don’t be surprised to see West Brom pepper him with shots to test him.

• Southampton vs West Brom Prediction 2: West Brom Over 9.5 Shots
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 6/10

Southampton vs West Brom Prediction 3: Busy Southampton Rearguard

With Southampton priced as the odds-on favourites, there appears to be plenty of value backing against them. 

West Brom opponents are averaging 6.75 goal kicks per game, with the Baggies forcing 10,11, 8, 8, 7, and 9 goal kicks in their last six games. While they average 52% of possession, West Brom will have to settle for less possession again against a Southampton side who average the highest possession total in the league. 

Southampton’s opponents also average the lowest passes per defensive action (PPDA) which indicates the Saints deploy a high press, looking to win the ball back aggressively. This means that West Brom may be forced to go long more often than not, which in turn should lead to more wasteful forward balls out for goal kicks. 

The Saints average 6.95 goal kicks per game, having 10, 7, 10, and 7 in their last four games.

• Southampton vs West Brom Prediction 3: Southampton Over 5.5 Goal Kicks (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Southampton vs West Brom Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:00, May 14th, 2024 Odds may now differ.

Southampton vs West Brom Team News and Possible Lineups

Southampton are without number 1 goalkeeper Gavin Bazanu who was injured in early April with an achilles tendon injury. Alex McCarthy will keep his place over Joe Lumley. Young right back Juan Larios is injured with a hamstring injury, although the Spaniard has yet to make an appearance thus far this season. Versatile Scottish forward Stuart Armstrong is still out with a hamstring injury. The 32-year-old played 42 times this season. He should be back provided The Saints reach the final 

West Brom are still without long-term injury absentees Daryl Dike and Jayson Molumby. 

Southampton possible starting lineup:
McCarthy; Stephens, Bednarek, Harwood-Bellis; Walker Peters, Smallbone, Downes, Aribo, Manning; Armstrong, Mara

West Brom possible starting lineup:
Palmer; Furlong, Bartley, Kipre, Townsend; Yokuslu, Mowatt; Fellows, Diangana, Johnston; Thomas-Asante

Match Stats: Possession Hungry Saints

• Southampton average the highest possession in the league (65%)
• Southampton scored the third most goals in the league (87)
• Only Leicester and Leeds have conceded fewer than West Brom’s 47 goals
• West Brom have only won one of the last nine meetings

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.