The Cards Column Tips: MD6 Player Cards, Team Bookings and Referee Data

After a dramatic week of comebacks in the Premier League and Football League, The Cards Column and Matt Kirby return to bring you the latest referee appointments and data.

It’s a big weekend with the north London derby and plenty of intriguing matches, including Aston Villa’s trip to Chelsea and Europa League sides Liverpool and West Ham face off at Anfield.

The tables are below with the data for this weekend’s match officials, as well as three of my favourite bets from within the card-related markets.

• Man City vs Nottingham Forest: Over 1 Man City card
• Stoke vs Hull: Ben Wilmot To Be Booked
• Sheffield United vs Newcastle: Over 50+ match booking points & 20+ booking points each

Odds via bet365 and Sky Bet as of 21:30, September 21st, 2023. Odds may now differ.

The Data from the Premier League and the Championship: Team Bookings and Referee Data

The key appointment in the Premier League this weekend is Rob Jones to the north London derby as Arsenal and Spurs look to protect their unbeaten records. He took charge of Spurs’ opening game, giving them four of the five yellows he dished out.

Josh Smith takes charge of a ‘trial game’ – his second in the top flight when he’s on duty at Kenilworth Road. His Premier League outing last season came in Fulham vs Crystal Palace, where he showed three cards.

In the Championship, card-happy trio Keith Stroud, Tim Robinson and Ollie Langford have games.

The Data from League One and League Two: Team Bookings and Referee Data

Select Group 2 official Andy Davies returned to action last weekend, showing seven second-half cards. He’s in charge of Bradford’s trip to Newport.

Lewis Smith kept his powder fairly dry in midweek, showing just one card in Portsmouth’s 3-2 win at Barnsley – Smith will be whistling the game between Leyton Orient and Shrewsbury.

Man City vs Nottingham Forest: Citizens to clip Tricky Trees

England, Premier League, Saturday, September 23rd, 15:00 (UK)

This is unlikely to be a route many visit for what looks like a one-sided contest on paper, but I’ve been drawn to it based on the stats and the tactical set-up from these two sides.

Man City have only picked up five cards in the league so far, but they’ve recorded two cards in their last couple of Premier League outings against Fulham and West Ham. Plus, they even saw Rodri and Ruben Dias booked despite having 76% of possession against Red Star on Tuesday.

And you can expect Pep Guardiola’s side to have the lion’s share of possession again – that’s part of Forest’s MO to set up on the counter with pace.

In all five of Forest’s league games, their opponents have received at least two cards – including their visits to Arsenal, Man Utd and Chelsea. So, we know that Steve Cooper’s side can draw the fouls and cards from their opponents.

When you look at those three away games against the traditional big clubs:

• Arsenal picked up two cards despite Forest’s 22% possession
• United got four yellows in a game where Forest had 34% of the ball
• The Tricky Trees only saw 25% of it at Chelsea but still drew three cards from the Blues.

That’s what to expect from the visitors: sit deep, soak up pressure and when they get the ball, spring forward quickly to try to take advantage of any City players out of position. If that’s the case, the Forest attackers could find themselves goal-side when drawing the fouls, earning cautions for those retreating City defenders.

Anthony Taylor is the referee for this one and he’s averaging 5.5 cards per Premier League game. In his four middles, he’s hit 40+ booking points in each one with a 75% strike rate for showing the home side at least two cards. It’s nine cards shown to the hosts, an average of 2.25 per 90.

So, with Taylor happy to show the cards when required, this could be set up quite nicely from a tactical viewpoint to see Forest counter and draw some Man City cards.

• Selection: Over 1 Man City Card
• Best Odds: 2.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Ben Wilmot To Be Booked: Tigers to trouble Potters’ defence

England, Championship, Sunday, September 24th, 12:00 (UK)

Sunday’s TV offering from the Championship sees Liam Rosenior take his high-flying Hull side to Stoke in an important game for Alex Neil.

The Potters languish in 19th place after their 2-2 draw against Huddersfield on Wednesday, where two defensive lapses proved costly. Yet their patterns of play were fairly encouraging.

One of the goalscorers in Yorkshire was Ben Wilmot, and he’s the man in the spotlight for my player card pick this weekend.

The centre-half has started in each of the Potters’ seven league games, and given Neil has chopped and changed formation, it’s Wilmot who’s been the constant as Michael Rose and Luke McNally vie for a place in a two, or they both place alongside him in a three.

Wilmot ranks joint-second within the Stoke ranks for fouls (9) and was cautioned in their away defeat at Millwall. He was also booked in the League Cup win over Rotherham.

He might not be the most obvious candidate, but looking through all the data points in his direction. Here’s why:

Hull are the most-fouled team in the Championship (111), while Stoke commits the joint-third most fouls (92), so that’s why it’s worth leaning toward a player in the famous red & white for a card.

The Tigers’ league games have seen plenty of opposition players receive cards – a total of 17 entered the referee’s notebook, with two more dismissed. So, there could be plenty of free-kicks going the way of the visitors.

Looking at players carded against Hull sees quite a few centre-backs end up in trouble. Norwich pair Ben Gibson and Shane Duffy saw yellow, as did Leicester’s Jannik Vestergaard.

More recently, Hull’s last two games saw Coventry start with a back three as Luis Binks and Joel Latibeaudere saw yellow. Then, on Wednesday, Leeds’ Joe Rodon was dismissed for two yellows. All that highlights why it might be worth taking a Stoke CB for a card – and with Wilmot the most likely starter, he’s the one to take.

At the time of writing, only Bet365 of the mainstream bookies had a market formed for this bet, so it might be worth looking to see what else is released closer to the game.

• Selection: Ben Wilmot To Be Booked
• Best Odds: 3.25
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Sheffield United vs Newcastle: Attwell to bring the cards

England, Premier League, Sunday, September 24th, 16:30 (UK)

It would be very remiss of me to ignore the late game on Sunday between struggling Sheffield Utd and Newcastle, who are fresh from their point against AC Milan on Tuesday.

This clash had to be mentioned, with these two sides topping the card charts in the Premier League with Newcastle (17 yellows) and Sheff Utd (16 yellows, 1 red). Meanwhile, no side has drawn more cards from their opponents than Newcastle (16 yellows, 1 red).

On that basis alone, we can expect Stuart Attwell to have his work cut out in keeping a lid on proceedings.

But will he referee with any empathy or feel for the game? The answer is probably not (sorry, Paul). The Warwickshire whistler has issued 18 yellows and one red across his three league games, averaging 6.5 cards per 90.

Trying to put together a bet for this game sees me head to Sky to utilise their Bet Builder feature. Combine 50+ match booking points with 20+ for each team.
The Blades have seen 20+ in four of their five and are fresh from picking up 60 booking points, which led to Paul Heckingbottom’s post-match rant against Spurs. And it is the same 80% strike rate for Newcastle, whose two away games have seen them land 50 and 40 booking points as a team.

Both Magpies’ last two games have seen 80 booking points with splits of 40-40 and 30-50, showing how card-heavy their games have been of late.

Going back to Attwell, his top-flight booking points breakdowns have been 20 bp, 105 bp (40-65 split) and 80 bp (40-40) split, proving he’s fond of that yellow card.

These two sides rank second and third for fouls, so in all, this could be a tempestuous affair where Attwell has to rule with his cards to stay on top of things.

• Selection: 50+ Match Booking Points & 20+ Booking Points Each Team
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: SkyBet
• Stake: 7/10

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