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football | Friday, October 27, 2023 10:50 AM
The Cards Column Tips: MD10 Player Cards, Team Bookings and Referee Data
Matt Kirby
1
Last weekend’s Cards Column delivered two more winning bets at 2.30 & 1.80, while the player selection was void. So, with a Manchester derby amongst this week’s action, what referee appointments catch the eye for our expert, Matt Kirby?
Find out who’s in charge of your team, the referee data and three of the best card-related bets.
And if that’s not enough of your Matt Kirby fill for one week, check out his go-to selection in this week’s Expert’s Acca.
- Hull vs Preston: Over 3 Cards and Each Team Second-Half Card
- Wolves vs Newcastle: Rayan Aït-Nouri To Be Booked
- Burton vs Leyton Orient: 30+ Booking Points Each Team
Odds via bet365 & SkyBet as of 21:30, October 26th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
The Data from the Premier League and the Championship: Team Bookings and Referee Data
Leaders Spurs kick things off in the Premier League with a London derby against Crystal Palace. Andy Madley is in charge; he’s averaging 6.4 cards per game – so we could see plenty of yellows there.
While Paul Tierney has the biggest appointment – the Manchester derby. Tierney showed a red card last Saturday, while his Championship game in midweek saw him point to the spot.
In the second tier, Darren England returns from the naughty step. He oversees high-flying Cardiff’s game agaisnt Bristol City. England is averaging 8.7 cards per 90 across his three middles. Meanwhile fellow Select Group 1 ref Peter Bankes has the Midlands derby between Coventry and West Brom on Monday night.
There are two Yorkshire derbies in the Championship, with James Bell at Elland Road and Andy Davies – a low-cards issuer – at Hillsborough.
The Data from League One and League Two: Team Bookings and Referee Data
Select Group 2 pair Geoff Eltringham and Jeremy Simpson find themselves in League One on Saturday. Eltringham takes charge of Charlton v Bolton after showing seven cards last weekend. While Simpson has Exeter v Lincoln – he showed 30 booking points to each team in Preston v Southampton on Wednesday.
There are also games for Sam Purkiss (6.2 cards per game) and Ross Joyce (5.8 cards per game). Regulars will know I like cards in games involving Joyce, but these two have showed six reds this season.
While I’m going to have to mention Darren Drysdale. He’s shown at least four cards in six of his seven middles. That is a rise in the number of cards he’s dishing out after showing 4+ in just 10 of his 28 games (36%) last season.
Hull vs Preston: Back cards by the Humber
England, Championship, Saturday, October 28th, 15:00 (UK)
It’s compact in the middle of the Championship table, with just two points separating fourth-place Preston and Hull in eighth.
The Tigers continue to win on the road after Wednesday’s 2-0 win at Birmingham. But they’ve won just once in six attempts at the MKM Stadium (D4 L1). While Preston looked set for a big win over Southampton in midweek but conceded a late own goal to draw 2-2.
With these two jostling for a prime spot around the play-offs, then we could get a cagey game – especially with Hull generally struggling to break sides down on home turf.
Hull average 2.2 cards per home game, while Preston average 2 per away game. So, on the bare numbers, we should see a few cards in this one.
The Lilywhites recent numbers caught the eye, with Ryan Lowe’s side picking up 3+ cards in four of their last five matches (3, 2, 3, 4 & 3).
So, with those Preston figures in mind, the first bet is based on one of last week’s punts – over three match cards and a card to each team in the second half. That comes out at 2.20 using the Bet365 bet builder feature.
Both sides rank joint-fifth for yellows per game in the Championship (2.5), which is strong foundations to build a bet around.
When you look at the second-half card angle, both sides have picked up at least one in 11 of their 13 Championship outings. While it’s five of six for Hull at home and Preston’s away games.
The Tigers draw the most fouls per 90 in the Championship (15.7), which leads you towards Preston earning the most cards. That’s especially with the Lilywhites ranking seventh for fouls committed (12.6).
Last season, these sides played out two goalless draws. They saw four cards here, with at least one each after the break. While at Deepdale, there were five cards, again each side seeing one in the second half.
Lewis Smith is the referee for this one, and he seems likely to be promoted to Select Group 2 in the near future. He’s shown at least four cards in nine of his 13 middles (69%), while he averages 2.9 cards in the second halves of his matches.
This popular cards angle looks the way to play it, but I couldn’t put you off over 1 Preston card & a card each in the second half at 2.05 as an alternative angle.
- Selection: Over 3 Cards and Each Team Second-Half Card
- Best Odds: 2.20
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Rayan Aït-Nouri To Be Booked: The peril of the left-back
England, Premier League, Saturday, October 28th, 17:30 (UK)
The teatime game in the Premier League on Saturday sees Newcastle looking to bounce back from their Champions League defeat against Borussia Dortmund. Their injury list grew on Wednesday after Alexander Isak and Jacob Murphy were withdrawn.
The Magpies head to Molineux and come up against the side with the worst discipline in the top flight – Wolves. They’ve picked up 33 yellows and three reds so far – and are likely to add to that here.
Gary O’Neil was good value on Monday Night Football with the insight into his tactics and how he sets up. And there could be some value to be had by taking Rayan Aït-Nouri to be booked.
The Algerian defender has already seen two cautions this term. And although he started as more of a left wing-back last weekend, it’ll be interesting to see if O’Neil reverts to a back four and plays Aït-Nouri in the more traditional left-back position.
However, looking back through Newcastle’s recent games, I felt I uncovered a bit of a trend we can take advantage of here.
The last three opposition left-backs against the Magpies have all seen yellow – Burnley’s Charlie Taylor, West Ham’s Emerson and Crystal Palace’s Tyrick Mitchell – so we could see that run extended to four.
Aït-Nouri knows he’s likely to be in for a busy game with Miguel Almiron and Kieran Trippier attacking down that right flank to cause him plenty of problems.
And given that left-backs have come unstuck against Eddie Howe’s side, I’m happy to take Aït-Nouri at this 4.00 price. It’s also worth saying that forwards tend to pick up cards against Newcastle, and all three Wolves forwards were carded last weekend – that could be an angle if you want to build a multiple on this game.
One of the league’s big-hitters is in charge, with Anthony Taylor overseeing matters. He’s shown at least four cards in five of his eight league games and is averaging five cards per 90 this term. So, enough to suggest Aït-Nouri could be one of them.
I’m going for the price with Bet365 and Sky Bet, with those books being more common. But if you’ve got a Unibet account, they have the full-back at 4.5 for a card.
Burton vs Leyton Orient: Card magnets collide
England, League One, Saturday, October 28th, 15:00 (UK)
Burton vs Leyton Orient might not read as the most attractive game on paper, but it looks a perfect storm for a nicely-priced punt.
This one’s slightly bigger at 3.40, as we can take 30+ booking points each team on Sky Bet. Use the bet builder feature to get this price rather than backing the standard market at 3.00.
The Brewers slipped to their first league defeat in eight at Carlisle in midweek, having won four on the spin before that. Now they welcome an Orient side unbeaten in four to the Pirelli, where cards definitely appeal.
These two sides rank second and third for card per game in this division, with Orient at 2.93 and Burton 2.87.
Now, take that a step further with home and away averages, where Burton top the home card charts at 3.14, while Orient sit third in the away one at 3.25. It all points to cards!
Dino Maamria’s side have picked up at least 30+ booking points in nine of their league games, including four of seven at home. Recently, they’ve landed this line in five of their last six.
While the London club have seen 30+ booking points in their last seven away games, and in 10 matches overall. On the road, they tend to rack up the cards!
What makes adds to the appeal is that the sides rank in the top 10 for fouls committed, while we’ve got one of the National Lists strictest arbiters in Charles Breakspear.
The Surrey-based ref averages 22.6 fouls per game, which is plenty of opportunity to show his cards, and he’s dished out 60+ booking points in seven of his 12 outings in all comps (58%).
His last four matches have seen match totals of 80, 65, 60 & 10 booking points, with those three big numbers seen splits of 10-70, 30-35 and 30-30. Overall, he’s shown 30+ booking points to each side in five of the seven games that have produced at least 60+ bp.
It’s fair to say Breakspear can be card-happy on his day, so, hopefully, he brings his best as these two card magnets collide.
SAFER GAMBLING
At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.
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