The Cards Column Tips: MD8 Player Cards, Team Bookings and Referee Data

While England and Scotland were busy qualifying for Euro 2024, The Cards Column had 1.80 and 1.91 winners in the Football League.

Our expert, Matt Kirby, is on hand once again as he is every week to welcome the return of the Premier League and the Championship, whilst providing the latest referee data and card-related bets.

• Middlesbrough vs Birmingham: Over 3 Cards & Each Team 1+ Second-Half Card
• Stoke vs Sunderland: Junior Tchamadeu To Be Booked
• Fleetwood vs Lincoln: 40+ Booking Points

Odds via bet365 & Skybet as of 21:00, October 19th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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The Data from the Premier League and the Championship: Team Bookings and Referee Data

There are plenty of big games in the Premier League this weekend, and it all starts with a Merseyside derby that sees Craig Pawson in charge. Then, Chris Kavanagh will be in the middle as Arsenal put their unbeaten record on the line at Chelsea. Meanwhile, there’s a second top-flight game for Sam Barrott, who has Nottingham Forest v Luton.

In the Championship, Rebecca Welch has her first Championship outing of the season after a couple of games further down the leagues after returning from the Women’s World Cup. And Select Group 1 officials Jarred Gillett and Graham Scott both have middles, with the latter in charge of ‘The Alex Neil derby’.

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The Data from League One and League Two: Team Bookings and Referee Data

In League One, Thomas Kirk is tasked with keeping control of the top-seven clash between Oxford and Blackpool. One of the games that looks quite spicy on paper is Shrewsbury v Derby, but enthusiasm for cards has dimmed slightly with Martin Woods appointed to the fixture.

Ross Joyce did this column a great turn last week, sending off two Tranmere players, and he’s taking charge of Bradford’s home game against Wrexham in League Two. Two more referees who rank highly for cards – Simon Mather and Alan Young – are in action as you’ll see in the above chart.

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Middlesbrough vs Birmingham: Side with cards by the River

England, Championship, Saturday, October 21st, 15:00 (UK)

Former Man Utd team-mates Michael Carrick and Wayne Rooney will be on the touchline at the Riverside, as their respective sides face off in the Championship.

Boro are on the charge after a slow start. They’re unbeaten in five (W4 D1) after their 4-0 win at Sunderland before the international break. While the Blues have won their last two, but now start life under Rooney after the departure of John Eustace.

Now, this game looks like an ideal candidate for an angle that’s been fairly popular in the last few years: Over three match cards & a card for each team in the second half.

Birmingham averages three cards per away game, which is the ideal starting point for this bet, with their last four on the road seeing both sides pick up a second-half card.

The Blues can be tempestuous on their travels, picking up eight cards at Watford, four at Swansea and one in each half at Bristol City.

What helps our bet is that they are an industrious side as well. They rank fifth for tackles per 90 in the Championship (17.1) and fourth for fouls per game (13.1).

Boro may have only picked up six cards in their home league games, but they’ve all come in the second 45, strengthening the credentials for this bet.

As does Rebecca Welch’s appointment, after her opening three games have seen card tallies of six, four and seven. That’s an average of 5.6 cards per 90, with 4.3 coming in the second half.

With two sides in decent shape, this could be a tight tussle that could see plenty of cards drawn for the infringements committed. So, all the data points to this popular angle at 2.3 using the Bet365 Bet Builder.

• Selection: Over 3 Cards & Each Team 1+ Second-Half Card
• Best Odds: 2.3
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stake: 7/10

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Junior Tchamadeu To Be Booked: Junior to get mad

England, Championship, Saturday, October 21st, 15:00 (UK)

This isn’t a match I wanted to write about. From a personal level, it fills me with dread. And if you’ve read Sam Ingram’s Early Bird article, you’ll know why. As a Stoke fan, I know we’re ravaged by injuries and struggle at home, so any pro-Sunderland bet is the way to play the Alex Neil derby.

Sunderland won this fixture 1-0 last season, which saw the Potters dismiss Michael O’Neill and poach the manager in the opposite dugout – Alex Neil. That’ll do for the background on the game!
When researching for my player picks, I look at match-ups and how the game could pan out tactically. We know that Jack Clarke is one of Sunderland’s key players – he’s getting fouled 2.5 times per game so far this season.

So for a direct match-up, take his opponent Junior Tchamadeu to see a card at 3.75. Stoke’s summer signing is a strapping and athletic individual but is going to be tested up against Clarke.

With Ki-Jana Hoever a doubt, it should see Tchamadeu start in his preferred right-back position. This season, he’s been booked three times (for Colchester and Stoke) in eight appearances, including in the Potters’ 3-2 win at Bristol City.

Recently, Watford’s right-back Jeremy Ngakia was booked in the 27th minute at the Stadium of Light, Cardiff’s Perry Ng committed a couple of fouls but escaped sanction, while Blackburn pair Lewis Travis and Joe Rankin-Costello were cautioned for upending Clarke.

And no side commits more fouls in home games in the second tier than Stoke (16.6), while the Black Cats draw the third-most free-kicks (12.9), which points towards home player cards.

Select Group 1 official Graham Scott is trusted with this one. He’s a veteran within those ranks and has taken charge of two Championship games this term – they’ve seen 14 yellows and one red.

With Scott happy to show cards in his second-tier games, he could well be taking the name of Tchamadeu following a foul on Clarke.

• Selection: Junior Tchamadeu to be Booked
• Best Odds: 3.75
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stake: 7/10

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Fleetwood vs Lincoln: Imps to make Cod Army mischievous

England, League One, Saturday, October 21st, 15:00 (UK)

Sky Bet have kindly opened some card markets in League One, and when looking through, most games seemed to have lines set at 50+ booking points. However, Fleetwood’s game against Lincoln seemed reasonably priced at the 40+ line.

Nine of Fleetwood’s 11 League One games have seen this land, including four of five here at Highbury. Those four matches have seen totals of 60, 90, 90 & 65 – way over the line we’re taking.
Lincoln’s game did us a good turn last week – a match against Burton that saw 75 booking points – taking them to eight games (of 11) that have seen at least 40 bp this season.

Four of their six away games have seen this bet land, with a couple seeing 50 bp and the other two seeing 60 bp – again, more evidence of plenty of cards.

When you look at the sides in other metrics, they both rank in the top five for tackles, whilst Fleetwood commits the joint-most fouls per 90 (13) along with Bolton.

The teams look solid enough for cards, with referee Tom Reeves showing at least four yellows in five of his 8.75 games this season. The .75 of a game comes after he replaced a stricken Darren Bond after about 22 minutes during Huddersfield v Stoke – Reeves ended up cautioning four players for 40 booking points in that one.

Reeves made a strong start to the campaign with booking points totals of 50, 60 & 50 in his first three league games, but he has admittedly slowed down lately – although he did dish out 50 bp in Shrewsbury v Bristol Rovers last month.

We’ve got two industrious sides, with Fleetwood giving away plenty of fouls, but both seem to pick up enough cards to lead me to this angle. All-in-all, it makes this 40+ booking points line look on the low side.

• Selection: 40+ Match Booking Points
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: SkyBet
• Stake: 10/10

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