The Cards Column Tips: Farewell Cards and Icebergs

It’s a busy Easter weekend of football across the Premier League and EFL. So, we’ve called on Matt Kirby to provide his best cards and booking tips, as well as the latest referee data from Wrexham vs Mansfield to Manchester City vs Arsenal.

• Liverpool vs Brighton: Over 4.5 Match Cards
• Chelsea vs Burnley: Sander Berge To Be Booked
• Blackburn vs Ipswich: Over 4 Match Cards & Over 1 Blackburn Card

The Data from the Premier League to League Two: Team Bookings and Referee Data

The big game at the Etihad between leaders Arsenal and Man City goes to Anthony Taylor. David Coote has their title rivals Liverpool home game with Brighton. The weekend kicks off at St James’ Park where Rob Jones oversees proceedings.

Select Group 1 ref Stuart Attwell is in the Championship as promotion-chasing Ipswich visit Blackburn. Low-card issuer Andrew Kitchen is in charge of Bristol City vs Leicester, which starts the Good Friday action.

There are games in League One for Declan Bourne and Thomas Parsons, who rank highly for showing 4+ cards per game. Ollie Yates has a clash between two teams battling relegation in Fleetwood and Cheltenham.

Cardshark Charles Breakspear finds himself in League Two, as do Lewis Smith, Oli Langford and Sunny Gill. While there’s another trial game at this level for James Durkin.

Liverpool vs Brighton: Coote to bring his cards for Klopp’s farewell tour

England, Premier League, Sunday 31st January, 14:30 (UK)

Liverpool can put themselves top of the Premier League for a few hours if they beat Brighton on Sunday. It marks the start of Super Sunday and the first of this week’s picks.

What brought this game to my attention is the appointment of referee David Coote, who is averaging 5.6 cards per game this season. From the pool of Select Group 1 referees – those who primarily officiate in the top flight – that average puts him second behind Darren England (5.9 cards per game).

Coote has shown 5+ cards in nine games, with his last five outings in league competition producing 5, 5, 5, 8 & 6. So, five tends to be his benchmark, which points to the over 4.5 cards line at 1.91 on Bet365.

When the Seagulls beat the Reds in the FA Cup last season, Coote was in charge of that and produced six yellows, which adds extra evidence.

So far this season, Roberto De Zerbi’s side average three cautions per away game. So, if they hit that it should stand us in good stead. What’s more, Liverpool have picked up 2+ cards in their last three clashes against Brighton in all comps.

Somewhat surprisingly, Liverpool rank fourth for fouls per game (12.1). That could draw Coote’s attention and force his hand into his pocket multiple times. Although this has been backed in from 2.10 into 1.91, I still think this is a solid price.

• Selection: Over 4.5 Cards (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

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Sander Berge To Be Booked: The Tip of the Ice-Berge

England, Premier League, Saturday, March 30th, 15:00 (UK)

Chelsea may top the yellow card charts in the Premier League, but I’m drawn to the price of a player in claret at Stamford Bridge.

Burnley have shown some fight in recent weeks with a 2-2 draw at West Ham followed by the 2-1 win over Brentford. It leaves Vincent Kompany’s side five points off safety, but that’s a total they seem to be chipping away at.

One thing they don’t tend to do is turn a game scrappy. Although on paper, this midfield battle could see plenty of fouls and, therefore, cards. And in Darren England, you’ve got the second-best referee in my data across the Premier League and Football League for producing cards.

England’s 5.9 cards per game is only bettered by National List official Simon Mather’s six per 90. So, with the referee’s average on top of Chelsea (3 pg at home) and Burnley (2.6 pg away), we could have something of a tempestuous affair.

Tempestuous

But the player that caught my eye was Sander Berge. He’s one I’ve had my eye on in recent weeks, and his price rarely alters. Once again, he’s 4.50 on Bet365 for a card – at the time of writing a few others had released a market, so shop around.

The Norwegian midfielder has seen cards in seven of his appearances. But five of those have been in his last 14 games compared to the two in 14 at the start of the season. So, he’s rolled his sleeves up and put his foot in, occasionally on the wrong side of the law.

He was booked against Liverpool then followed it up by getting sent off by Stuart Attwell for two yellows at Aston Villa.

Given that, two things really caught my eye here. Berge was booked at West Ham on 10th March. Nothing too obvious to note about seeing yellow against the Hammers, but the referee that night was England – the same man here. So, a little bit of recent history.

The other point of interest was that Berge made three fouls in the reverse fixture that Chelsea won 4-1 and managed to escape a card. I doubt that’ll happen here with England in charge.

And that’s not a one-off. The midfielder committed five fouls at Wolves and four more at Man City, so there is a propensity on his part to stop an opponent when necessary. And there’s a good chance he’ll add to his fouls tally in this one.

• Selection: Sander Berge to be Booked
• Best Odds: 4.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

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Blackburn vs Ipswich: Follow Attwell!

England, Championship, Friday, March 29th 17:30 (UK)

The meat in the sandwich of live Championship football on Good Friday comes from Ewood Park. Promotion-chasing Ipswich head north looking to stay in the race and put the pressure on Leeds, who play in the later slot.

While Blackburn hover ominously above the relegation zone having won just one of their last 17 in the league. John Eustace’s arrival has seen them grind out draws, but maximum points have been hard to come by in their fight to survive.

But similar to my first match pick, it was the name Stuart Attwell that made me do some digging here. He’s averaging 5.5 cards per game this season, with him typically showing five or six in his recent outings.

The whistler’s last nine league matches have seen him produce card totals of 6, 5, 6, 0, 6, 5, 8, 5, 7 & 6. So, it’s fair that the line for this one has been set at around 4.5 cards, something he more often than not goes over.

Recently Attwell has had a taste of Championship football. Those two games saw 5 & 6 yellows. He also issued 5 in an FA Cup tie between Bristol City and Nottingham Forest. His staple quite obviously seems to be five cards minimum!

Five Cards Minimum

With that in mind, the first leg to add to a Bet Builder is over 4 match cards. Attwell’s average and recent numbers point towards that being the case, plus when the sides met at Portman Road, there were seven cautions.

Now combine that with over 1 Blackburn card to get a rather juicy-looking 2.00 price – it’s the same on Sky doing 50+ booking points and 20+ Blackburn booking points.

Rovers average 2.1 cards per game across the season, which narrowed down to home games jumps ever so slightly to 2.2. And they’ve hit the 2+ cards in 13 of 19 league games here at Ewood Park. Plus, they picked up four of the seven in the reverse fixture.

And I’ve got to point out Attwell’s record. He tends to give 2+ cards to the hosts more often than he does to the away side, so he’s not afraid of upsetting the home faithful. In 79% of his games, he’s given two or more cards to the home side, including in eight of those nine matches with his card counts listed above.

Ipswich rank fifth for fouls committed in away games, which could help Attwell give that match card count a boost. While the hosts rank highly for tackles, so hopefully a couple of those can be mis-timed challenges to produce cards.

With the Tractor Boys in the automatic promotion race and Rovers fighting to stave off relegation, we could get a humdinger. And in Attwell, we’ve got an official who never really has a grip on a game, so things could boil over into scenes we love to see.

• Selection: Over 4 Match Cards & Over 1 Blackburn Card (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

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