The Cards Column Tips: Low Lines And Games With Meaning

The Premier League title race looks like a two-horse race, and the leaders feature in this week’s picks from Matt Kirby. He’s also cast his eye over the final round of fixtures in the Championship to find his player pick.

• Arsenal vs Bournemouth: Over 3.5 Cards
• Plymouth vs Hull: Julio Pleguezuelo To Be Booked 
• Liverpool vs Spurs: Alexis Mac Allister To Be Booked

Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: Big games for Hooper, Donohue & Langford

Tim Robinson blows the first whistle on the Premier League weekend when in-form Everton visit Luton. Cards Column favourite David Coote has Arsenal’s lunchtime game with Bournemouth. There’s a potential final top-flight fixture for Graham Scott, while Paul Tierney has Sunday’s big game between Liverpool and Spurs.

In the Championship, the games with meaning see Select Group 1 ref Simon Hooper keep an eye on matters when Ipswich – chasing back-to-back promotions – welcome Huddersfield, who look destined for League One. Matt Donohue has Leeds’ clash with Southampton. It’s Oli Langford at St Andrew’s for Birmingham v Norwich.

Here are the League One play-off referees:

• Barnsley v Bolton: Will Finnie – 31 matches, 12 times he’s shown 4+ cards, and 7 occasions he’s shown 2+ cards to each team.
• Oxford v Peterborough: Lewis Smith – 34 matches, 21 times he’s shown 4+ cards, and 15 occasions he’s shown 2+ cards to each team.

Here are the League Two play-off referees:

• Crawley v MK Dons: Ross Joyce – 34 matches, 22 times he’s shown 4+ cards, and 17 occasions he’s shown 2+ cards to each team.
• Crewe v Doncaster: Sunny Gill – 38 matches, 19 times he’s shown 4+ cards, and 11 occasions he’s shown 2+ cards to each team.

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Arsenal vs Bournemouth: A low-looking line to exploit

England, Premier League, Saturday, May 4th, 12:30 (UK)

Arsenal have a one-point advantage heading into this weekend’s Premier League games. And it’s the Gunners who can strike first in the title race when they welcome Bournemouth to the Emirates.

Mikel Arteta’s side didn’t buckle under some late pressure in last Sunday’s north London derby. He saw his team hold on to win 3-2.

Despite just the three yellows, things did get a little niggly and tense towards the end, so on another day with some firmer refereeing, there could easily have been more.

The thing ahead of this game is that the odds compilers seem to expect one-way traffic. I suppose the Gunners did blow the Cherries away earlier in the season, and the markets seem to be expecting more of the same.

However, that seems to have led the bookies to reduce their lines in the card markets. Most matches this season have seen lines of 4.5, so I’m more than willing to have a nibble at this line of 3.5.

It looks like a low line – and apologises to regular readers – because of the referee. That man is the one and only David Coote. He’s a part of the furniture in this season’s Cards Column, and for good reason.

I’ll start by saying, look at the line the bookies have set – 3.5. Compare that to Coote’s average across the leagues this season – 5.6. That’s one of the highest figures across the English professional pyramid!

Straight away, it leaped out as a backable price solely based on Coote’s numbers and how low a threshold he sets before issuing a caution.

Four cards are all we need to register a winner. That’s happened in 15 of Coote’s 18 league middles this season – an 83% strike rate. I’m hoping that makes it clear why this line looks so backable.

In 2024 alone, the referee has taken charge of eight league games showing 5, 5, 5, 8, 6, 8, 4 & 4.

In that run, the six-card game involved Bournemouth, where he booked four Cherries’ players. And one of the fours was Arsenal’s defeat to Aston Villa, where three in Gunners’ red entered his notebook.

So far this term, 10 of Arsenal’s home games have produced at least four cards. It’s landed in 12 of Bournemouth’s away outings, including in 10 of the last 12.

The Cherries’ last five road trips have seen them collect team totals of 3, 4, 0, 3 & 3. So, on that evidence, Andoni Iroala’s side is still fighting to finish the season on a high. The last of those matches also saw Milos Kerkez dismissed at Wolves.

Irola’s men don’t mind getting stuck in either. They average the most fouls per 90 in the top flight at 13.4. While both sides are mid-table for fouls drawn – Arsenal 10.5 and Bournemouth 9.8.

Coote gives an average of 24.5 free kicks per game, the second-highest amount from the pool of referees who have had 10+ matches. Another reason to follow him around is that fouls = cards!

What also helps is that both sides draw an average of two cards from their opponents per game. So, with a twitchy Coote itching to hit his quota, we should be on the right side of this line.

• Selection: Over 3.5 Cards (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

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Julian Pleguezelo To Be Booked: Pilgrims pair to walk the plank

England, Championship, Saturday, May 4th, 12:30 (UK)

The Plymouth celebrations after beating Leicester a few weeks ago are looking a bit silly and premature. The Pilgrims sit just a point above the drop zone heading into their final game.

Hull are the visitors to Home Park, and the Tigers aren’t going to put their feet up while they’re in Devon. Liam Rosenior’s side are out for three points in an attempt to pip West Brom to a play-off place.

I’ve noted at times through the season that defenders seem to pick up plenty of cards against Hull. So, going back to Good Friday, let’s look at some of the culprits:

• Three of Stoke’s back four were booked, including left-back Enda Stevens
• Leeds left-back Junior Firpo
• QPR’s converted right-back Jimmy Dunne
• Watford had four cards – the whole of the back three and right wing-back Ryan Andrews
• Last Saturday, Axel Tuanzebe playing at right-back for Ipswich was the latest addition.

I hadn’t spotted Tuanzebe, so I posted that on Twitter when the team news came out. His first-half yellow saw that land at 6.00.

We know that Hull’s attacking options are quite frightening. Fabio Carvalho and Jayden Philogene can take some stopping when in full flow, and a lot of Championship defenders have been reduced to any means necessary to halt their progress.

So, where does that lead me? My first pick is Julio Pleguezuelo, who if starting, could find himself in trouble against Philogene. I saw him against Stoke a couple of weeks ago, where he committed a no-nonsense challenge on Bae Junho in the first half and was lucky not to see yellow.

The Spaniard does only have three cautions to his name, but the threat of the Hull attack proved to trouble him in the reverse fixture. He committed three fouls that day and saw yellow in the 77th minute.

His fouls per 90 average is just shy of 1. But I’m playing this mostly down to the opposition and what he’ll have to deal with throughout.

If he doesn’t start, look towards Adam Randell in the middle of the park. He’s seen 10 yellows for the Pilgrims in the league – only the injured Mikel Miller (12) and Bali Mumba (11) have more.

The quotes of 4.00 look plenty good enough. Despite sitting as a screen in front of the centre-halves, he’s only committed a foul in seven of his last 11. But he does get stuck in, making 5, 1, 2, 2 & 3 tackles in his last five starts. All it takes is one of them to be mistimed to result in a card.

There’s a good chance Randell is getting pulled here, there and everywhere to help cover for his team-mates, or even double-up to stop the Hull threat.

Darren Bond is in charge of this one. I’m going to have to describe him as a bag of Revels – remember those? You don’t know what you’re going to get!

There are some big numbers during the season. But in five of his last six league games, Bond has shown three cards or less.

His only involvement with one of these sides will make Hull fans anxious. He showed seven yellows and a red in their defeat at Sheffield Wednesday. The red went to Tyler Morton in the first half, but that was rescinded on appeal.

Both need something from this one, but Hull have plenty of attacking quality to threaten the Pilgrims. So, here are two options for players to see yellow. I’ve split a unit evenly across the Plymouth pair.

• Selection 1: Julio Pleguezuelo To Be Booked (TRACKED BET)
• Selection 2: Adam Randell To Be Booked (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 3.60 & 4.00
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stake: 5/10 & 5/10

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Alexis Mac Allister To Be Booked: All-action midfield in hot water

England, Premier League, Sunday, May 5th, 16:30 (UK)

I usually wrap up with a second match pick, however, there’s nothing that stood out. Crystal Palace are 1.80 to get a card in the first half on Monday. Man Utd’s opponents have done that in 17 of their last 19, so that has legs.

While I was also hoping for a full list of markets – at the time of writing – in the Championship, so I could attack a game to have no cards in a meaningless contest. Not to be, but Stoke v Bristol City fits that bill with Sam Barrott one of the lower card issuers.

So, I’ll roll the dice on another player angle. This one takes me to Anfield on Sunday when Liverpool host Spurs. It’s been a forgettable week for the Lilywhites after London derby defeats to Arsenal and Chelsea.

I’ve tipped Alexis Mac Allister on the Propcast – listen on Spotify (shameless plug) to have 2+ tackles and 2+ fouls at 2.15 on Bet365. He’s sixth for tackles (90) and fourth for fouls (50) across the Premier League, averaging 3 tackles and 1.7 fouls per 90.

He’s been something of Mr Consistent for Liverpool in recent weeks, especially with the Reds’ title hopes faltering. And he’s generally in the thick of the action.

At West Ham last Saturday, he picked up his seventh yellow of the season to go with the red collected back in August. One of those cautions came in the controversial reverse fixture, where he made four tackles and was penalised three times to add further credence.

Paul Tierney has got the nod for this. It might be spicy for what happened when they met at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, which might give it an edge.

The whistler took charge of this exact fixture last April and showed five cards. During this season, his four Liverpool games have averaged 4.3 cards per 90. This will be his first Spurs league game of the 2023/24 season, but he did show seven yellows in their FA Cup defeat to Man City. Mateo Kovacic was one of the City players who entered his notebook.

I’ll take the World Cup winner Mac Allister, as my gut feeling is that 4.50 for a player who has committed the fourth-most tackles is a little generous.

• Selection: Alexis Mac Allister to be booked 
• Best Odds: 4.50
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stake: 5/10

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