The Editor’s Championship NAP, Value Bets and Longshot: Taking flight, recent wounds, and Monstrosities

It’s a jaunt to the second tier for the ‘Editors Championship NAP, Value Bets, and Longshot’ ahead of a bustling weekend in the EFL and further afield on the continent.

Our expert, Sam Ingram, is on hand to run the rule over three choice prices which stand out from the crowd, accompanied by ramblings to back up each selection.

If that’s not enough for you, Sam’s Premier League pick in the Expert’s Acca this week may take your fancy.

The Championship NAP, Value Bet and Longshot Expert Football Betting Tips

• The Championship NAP Bet Tip: Sunderland
• The Championship Value Bet Tip: Leicester City
• The Championship Longshot Bet Tip: Swansea City

Treble Odds: 21.47

Odds via bet365 as at 11:20, October 27th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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The Championship NAP Bet Tip in Sunderland vs Norwich: Nursing recent wounds

England, Championship, October 28th, 15:00 (UK)

I’ve backed Sunderland more than any other team this season, and to be honest, it hasn’t been overly fruitful. They’ve lost games they should’ve won. Stoke away from home, for example, at a large price, was unlucky to fall short. They could’ve won that on another day.

Mowbray’s men well against Leicester in midweek, but it’s Leicester, so there’s an asterisk there. They were arguably the better team against Middlesbrough but received a red card just before the break and went on to get beaten.

Sunderland have lost three in a row, which is why you can back them at odds-against this week against Norwich, who have lost three games in four themselves.

On the face of it, they’re both in poor form if you’re looking at just results. But that’s not entirely true. Sunderland are playing well, and Norwich are lacking. They’re missing Josh Seargent and Ashley Barnes up top, which has fed into their drop in form.

Norwich have only won 2/9 games since the start of September, losing 6/9 of those outings. The Canaries have been outmuscled in terms of expected goals in 6/9, highlighting that below-par underlying numbers back up these results.

They aren’t performing great; it’s a long journey up north, and this current squad will be nursing recent wounds as they set up to try and contain Sunderland on home soil. Half stakes back if it’s a draw – I like that.

• The Championship NAP Bet Tip: Sunderland -0.25 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: William Hill
• Stake: 10/10

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The Championship Value Bet Tip in QPR vs Leicester: Oppose QPR

England, Championship, October 28th, 15:00 (UK)

Where do I even start with QPR? It’s evident that what is there at the club right now isn’t working. I’m hesitant to lay blame at a manager’s door, to be honest. It’s the go-to knee-jerk reaction for the modern football fan, isn’t it?

Something’s not working? Sack the manager. Players out of form and underperforming? Sack the manager. Recruitment is a mess even though the manager has no say? Sack the manager.

That’s how it feels for most clubs. Yet, here, at QPR, it’s difficult not to lay the blame at Gareth Ainsworth’s door to some degree. This is a good squad. They have players in this team – Ilias Chair, Chris Willock, Lyndon Dykes etc – good players – maybe they won’t win you a league title or get you promoted, but they’re not relegation fodder.

It’s wincing to see where QPR were under Mick Beale and where they are now. During the week, QPR went to West Brom and mustered one shot at 0.14xG. Now, I don’t care who you are or what team you’re playing against. Unless it’s Real Madrid vs a team of Ex-Pats in Benidorm, you can’t be having one shot at goal.

It’s West Brom, for goodness sake. Argyle went to the Hawthorns on the weekend – five shots – not exceptional, but they tried to play. It was nearing 50/50 in terms of possession. Look, these stats aren’t the barometers for success in the Championship. I’m not saying that, but you can’t get away with offering up one shot against West Brom. It’s not on.

I’ve never been one to think clubs should pander to the fans and offer reimbursement for tickets, but that is as close as it gets on a cold evening in October. It should be pointed out that Jimmy Dunne got a second yellow card around the hour mark, but still, in the first half, 11 vs 11, there were no shots from QPR and 71-29% possession. I get that Ainsworth wants to go away from home, be hard to beat and pick and choose when to get at their opponents, but this wasn’t it.

That’s no wins in eight – five losses on the bounce – they’ve got 7.78 non-penalty xG from open play after 13 games. It’s poor.

Compare that to Leicester, who have 19.67xG from open play, nearly triple QPR’s sum – plus 12 wins from 13, winning eight on the bounce – it’s chalk and cheese. Knowing the Championship, it means this will be 1-0 to QPR, no doubt in my mind.

I won’t go into Leicester too much. I think I said this last year at some point regarding Burnley, but they may well prove to be the best side this level has ever seen in terms of points hauls and an apparent gulf in quality to the rest.

Bet365 have priced Leicester at 3.00 to go on and break the 106-point Reading Championship record. If you win all 46 games in a Championship season, you end with 138 points. They’ve dropped three points in 13 matches in just over a quarter of the season.

So, they can afford to drop another 28 points with under three-quarters of the season remaining. If they carry on like this, then they’ll break it with no problems asked. However, we’ve had some outstanding teams in this league who haven’t managed to do it – Nuno’s Wolves, Bielsa’s Leeds, and Kompany’s Burnley, to name just three.

• The Championship Value Bet Tip: Leicester Win to Nil
• Best Odds: 2.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

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The Championship Longshot Bet Tip in Blackburn vs Swansea: Visitors able to take flight

England, Championship, October 28th, 15:00 (UK)

It’s a risky bet. What has caught my eye here is the price.

Blackburn Rovers are presenting as Evens favourites on Saturday, whilst the Swans are outsiders at 3.50 – I’m not sure about that in the slightest. In my mind, I’ve priced this as a pick-um with Rovers’ recent uplift and home advantage, perhaps making them slight favourites.

You can get Swansea on a +0.5 Asian Handicap at around Evens, which I think is a great price. I view this line at either +0.25 or edging towards 0.0 as the Evens line.

Blackburn have won three on the bounce but said three started off with two wins against QPR, which, as already mentioned, isn’t the most impressive three points one can get at present, and also Cardiff at home. That was followed by a decent win over Millwall in midweek after going a goal down.

It should be said, in fairness, that their poor run before the last fortnight came in matches against Coventry, Leicester, Ipswich and Sunderland, where they lost four on the bounce.

For me, it’s just a price play. I think this could go either way, and I’m expecting goals, so at 5.50, it feels like a juicy enough longshot that could rear its head if we get an off day from the hosts.

Before Swansea’s recent two losses, they had won four on the bounce. Leicester stopped that winning run – fair enough – plus a Watford defeat on Tuesday. Michael Duff and the Swans supporters will be annoyed by the result in midweek. They’d have probably thought it was a game they could win against a Watford team who aren’t quite at it at present.

Suppose they perform as they did against Plymouth Argyle on the road a few weeks back, especially in the second half at Home Park. In that case, they’ll prove tricky opposition for anyone in this league, bar maybe that monstrosity coming out of Leicester.

Remember, structure this pick in a bet builder format, picking both Swansea Win and BTTS separately. That way, you’ll receive Early Payout if Swansea are to go two goals up.

• The Championship Longshot Bet Tip: Swansea to Win and BTTS
• Best Odds: 6.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 2/10

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