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It’s 2024 and the bettingexpert team is back with another Expert’s acca tips and predictions preview ahead of the weekend.
This week, the six punts combine for 35.73, as Jack Wright heads to Scotland, Tom Winch fancies the warmer weather in La Liga, whilst our Asian Cup man, Nathan Joyes, stays on trend following his coverage of the competition for bettingexpert.
Expert Tips Acca Odds: 35.73
Expert Tips and Predictions Acca Odds via bet365 as at Wednesday 10th January 07:30. Odds may now differ.
Scotland, Championship, January 13th, 15:00 (UK)
The 2023/24 season has seen goals galore across much of Europe, with prices on over 2.5 goals or both teams to score crashing as a result. However, I had to double-check the odds we were getting here for three or more goals at Cappielow Park.
The Scottish Championship has seen 281 goals from its 97 fixtures this term at an average of 2.90 goals per match, with a hefty 63% of matches cashing for Over 2.5 goals backers. An identical percentage to that of League One north of the border and the English Premier League.
Partick Thistle are doing a lot of the heavy lifting in those stats with their fixtures this season, seeing a league-high 73 goals at 3.65 per game. Eighteen of those 20 matches have cashed for over 2.5 goals-backers, an incredible 90%, including eight of their nine road trips.
Morton have seen three or more goals in seven of their nine league outings on home soil this season. Four of their last five clicked for over 2.5 goals backers.
These two sides have already played each other home and away this campaign, and it should be no surprise to learn both games saw over 2.5 goals land. The fixture here in Greenock ended in a 4-1 win for the visitors.
Qatar, Asian Cup, January 14th, 14:30 (UK)
It looks to be a straight battle for top spot in Group C between UAE and Iran – and so neither can afford slipping up against Hong Kong and Palestine, respectively.
Iran and UAE don’t meet until round three, which gives both teams an opportunity to ramp up their goal tally against two sides destined to bow out in the group stage.
Hong Kong recently faced Iran in the Asia World Cup qualifiers, falling to a 4-0 defeat without having a single shot on target. Although UAE aren’t as strong as Iran, they should more than hold their own in familiar surroundings with Qatar only next door.
Veteran striker and captain Ali Mabkhout has scored 85 goals for his country, and he’ll be chasing down the big 100 against whoever he can. A weak-looking Hong Kong defence should offer him multiple opportunities.
UAE have only ever played Hong Kong twice, and they were both 4-0 victories back in 2013. A repeat scoreline isn’t out of the equation, but a clean sheet and three points from fans will be a minimum.
Germany, Bundesliga, January 14th, 14:30 (UK)
The Bundesliga is back after its winter break, and there are several intriguing fixtures to look forward to. Bochum and Bremen are locked on 16 points as they prepare to square off this weekend, and all signs point to goals.
These sides have a six-point cushion from the relegation playoff spot, but they will quickly be dragged down if results don’t improve. Werder Bremen have just one win in their last seven league matches. Elsewhere, Bochum have improved after a winless start to the season.
Bochum have kept just one clean sheet across their seven home matches in the Bundesliga this season, and both teams have scored in those six. That was in their last fixture before the break against Union Berlin. Their matches at the Ruhrstadion have seen an average of exactly three goals per game.
They take on a Bremen side that have struggled to defend. They are still awaiting their first win on the road this season and are yet to keep a clean sheet in those matches. Their away games are averaging 3.43 goals per game. Bremen won both matches against Bochum last season, and I expect them to chip in with a goal here despite their woes this season.
Spain, La Liga, January 14th, 13:00 (UK)
What a season Girona is having. I don’t think there’s anyone who could’ve predicted what Michel and his side are doing, and they’re showing no signs of slowing down. After 19 La Liga matches, they’re level at the top of the table with Real Madrid, seven points ahead of Barcelona and ten in front of Atletico Madrid.
Girona have yet to taste defeat on the road this season. They’ve won seven of nine and have scored an impressive 21 times. Almeria still hasn’t won a league game in 2023/24, losing five of nine and conceding 18 times at Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
It’s difficult to back against this Girona team. They’ve proved that what they’re doing isn’t just a fluke. They’re second favourites to win the title now as they sit in 2nd spot in the league, only behind an impressive Real Madrid side.
The hosts have managed just two clean sheets all season. They’ve conceded multiple times in 14 of their 19 league games. Girona won the reverse fixture 5-2, and that was after trailing by two goals very early on.
The proposed selection has returned profits in 15 matches from 19 this campaign. Only Real Madrid, Real Betis, Athletic Club and Real Sociedad have taken points from the title challengers. Almeria are rock bottom with just five points to their name. This should be a mismatch, with only one side coming out on top.
Italy, Serie A, January 13th, 19:45 (UK)
Inter were crowned ‘Campione d’Inverno’ (winter champions) following a weekend of furious debates and VAR controversies. Their dramatic stoppage-time win against Verona (with the Scaligeri missing a penalty in the 100th minute), and the polemics that followed Frattesi’s goal overshadowed a lacklustre performance by the Neroazzurri.
After taking the lead thanks to the returning Lautaro Martinez (16 goals so far), Simone Inzaghi’s men lacked the energy and the focus to put the game to bed.
Forty-eight points is an extraordinary tally, but Inter’s hopes to win the Scudetto will also rest on their ability to administer games after they’ve taken the lead. They’ve scored first in 18 out of 19 games but lost points against Sassuolo, Bologna and Genoa.
Inter have collected three wins in the last six games but only a clean sheet (at home vs Lecce) in the last four matches. With Juventus breathing down their neck, the Neroazzurri can’t rest on their laurels, as this short trip to Monza has all the connotations of a trap.
The hosts often go toe-to-toe with big teams, and last year, they took some important scalps at the Brianteo (beating Juventus and Napoli and drawing 2-2 in January with Inter).
Monza will be without their best player so far, goalkeeper Michele Di Gregorio (top for saves in Serie A and voted best goalkeeper by Opta), who’s injured; a big test for 21-years-old Alessandro Sorrentino, who has only played two top-flight games.
Germany, Bundesliga, January 13th, 17:30 (UK)
Darmstadt ended 2023 at the bottom of the Bundesliga table, and the newly promoted outfit is the bookmaker’s favourite to go down. They always knew it was going to be a struggle, but just two wins in 16 league games has been a considerable concern.
Darmstadt are winless in nine Bundesliga games, with six of those fixtures ending in defeats. They have never really been the same since getting obliterated 8-0 by Bayern Munich, but perhaps their biggest issue is at the other end of the field. They have the lowest xG of any team in the Bundesliga ( 17.78) and, especially here at home, have appeared toothless, scoring just two goals in front of their own fans in the last five fixtures here.
Borussia Dortmund have been a tricky side to bet on this season, regularly letting punters down in some favourable situations. It feels like the winter break came at a good time for them as they struggled to juggle between domestic and European action. They are fifth in the table and won just 1 of their last 8 Bundesliga games.
I expect a few weeks off has allowed the management and squad to refocus, and realistically, they should be eating teams like Darmstadt for breakfast. Dortmund have only lost one road game all season, although they have drawn too many for their liking. Despite an under-par season so far, Edin Terzic’s men still possess decent attacking metrics.
Taking the visitors on a -1 Asian Handicap looks like a pretty safe play. Darmstadt have failed to net in any of their last three home games, so there’s a good chance of an away win to nil. It might only take one goal to prevail, but we know that Dortmund should impose their extra class and quality on proceedings. Ramy Bensebaini is on African Nations Cup duty, but they are not affected much by this international window. It looks like a good time to get back on the Dortmund horse because the gulf in quality between these two teams is too much.
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