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Mixed martial arts BETSiE Predicts La Liga: Updated February 11th 2025
Barcelona remain firmly in the La Liga title race with a 38.8% chance of overtaking Real Madrid (46.6%), while Atletico Madrid trail at 14.0%. The Catalans are heavy favourites (81.3%) to defeat Rayo Vallecano on Wednesday, February 14th, with a projected goal total of 4.03. Barcelona have netted 102.7 goals this season, averaging 3.14 per game at home. Although Alaves (3.1% to finish top half) have struggled, their relegation probability stands at 30.0%. Expect another high-scoring affair as Hansi Flick’s side looks to close the gap to Real Madrid, who visit Osasuna in a crucial clash.
La Liga Projections: February 14th – February 17th
| HOME | AWAY | Home Win | Draw | Away Win |
| Atl. Madrid | Celta | 62.10% | 22.90% | 15.00% |
| Barcelona | Vallecano | 81.30% | 11.50% | 7.20% |
| Betis | Sociedad | 35.00% | 27.90% | 37.10% |
| Espanyol | Ath Bilbao | 17.60% | 25.30% | 57.10% |
| Girona | Getafe | 48.80% | 28.00% | 23.20% |
| Leganes | Alaves | 30.70% | 30.40% | 39.00% |
| Mallorca | Las Palmas | 48.30% | 26.30% | 25.40% |
| Osasuna | Real Madrid | 16.70% | 21.80% | 61.50% |
| Valladolid | Sevilla | 26.80% | 27.40% | 45.80% |
| Villarreal | Valencia | 58.50% | 21.90% | 19.60% |
La Liga Projected goal totals: February 14th – February 17th
| HOME | AWAY | HGF | AGF | GD | GT |
| Atl. Madrid | Celta | 1.76 | 0.72 | 1.03 | 2.48 |
| Barcelona | Vallecano | 3.14 | 0.89 | 2.25 | 4.03 |
| Betis | Sociedad | 1.16 | 1.21 | -0.04 | 2.37 |
| Espanyol | Ath Bilbao | 0.74 | 1.57 | -0.83 | 2.31 |
| Girona | Getafe | 1.35 | 0.83 | 0.51 | 2.18 |
| Leganes | Alaves | 0.94 | 1.1 | -0.16 | 2.04 |
| Mallorca | Las Palmas | 1.47 | 0.99 | 0.48 | 2.45 |
| Osasuna | Real Madrid | 0.87 | 1.9 | -1.03 | 2.77 |
| Valladolid | Sevilla | 0.97 | 1.37 | -0.39 | 2.34 |
| Villarreal | Valencia | 1.93 | 1.03 | 0.91 | 2.96 |
Projected league table
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Points |
| 1 | Real Madrid | 38 | 24.7 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 82.3 | 35.2 | 47.0 | 81.9 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 38 | 25.1 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 102.7 | 42.2 | 60.5 | 80.6 |
| 3 | Atl. Madrid | 38 | 22.5 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 63.7 | 28.3 | 35.5 | 77.9 |
| 4 | Ath Bilbao | 38 | 19.4 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 58.6 | 34.9 | 23.7 | 69.7 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 18.1 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 70.5 | 52.5 | 17.9 | 64.7 |
| 6 | Sociedad | 38 | 15.5 | 7.9 | 14.6 | 39.4 | 35.6 | 3.8 | 54.4 |
| 7 | Vallecano | 38 | 13.3 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 42.8 | 47.0 | -4.1 | 51.6 |
| 8 | Girona | 38 | 14.4 | 7.8 | 15.9 | 49.3 | 53.3 | -4.0 | 50.8 |
| 9 | Betis | 38 | 12.9 | 11.5 | 13.6 | 48.3 | 52.2 | -3.8 | 50.2 |
| 10 | Mallorca | 38 | 13.8 | 7.9 | 16.3 | 35.4 | 48.4 | -13.0 | 49.3 |
| 11 | Celta | 38 | 13.6 | 7.8 | 16.5 | 51.8 | 55.3 | -3.4 | 48.7 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 38 | 11.6 | 13.8 | 12.6 | 44.3 | 53.4 | -9.1 | 48.6 |
| 13 | Sevilla | 38 | 12.2 | 11.0 | 14.8 | 41.8 | 52.2 | -10.4 | 47.5 |
| 14 | Getafe | 38 | 10.4 | 13.3 | 14.3 | 32.1 | 35.1 | -2.9 | 44.4 |
| 15 | Valencia | 38 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 16.8 | 42.6 | 56.7 | -14.1 | 42.1 |
| 16 | Las Palmas | 38 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 19.0 | 45.2 | 61.7 | -16.5 | 39.6 |
| 17 | Alaves | 38 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 18.1 | 40.2 | 53.0 | -12.9 | 39.4 |
| 18 | Espanyol | 38 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 20.0 | 35.0 | 58.5 | -23.5 | 36.6 |
| 19 | Leganes | 38 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 18.1 | 32.0 | 56.8 | -24.7 | 36.5 |
| 20 | Valladolid | 38 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 24.4 | 28.5 | 74.3 | -45.9 | 27.9 |
League finish probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 2 | Top 4 | Top 6 | Top Half | Bottom Half | Relegation |
| Real Madrid | 46.6% | 81.0% | 99.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Barcelona | 38.8% | 74.0% | 99.7% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Atl. Madrid | 14.0% | 41.4% | 99.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ath Bilbao | 0.5% | 3.3% | 76.3% | 99.8% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Villarreal | 0.0% | 0.3% | 24.3% | 96.5% | 99.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sociedad | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 39.2% | 88.1% | 11.9% | 0.0% |
| Vallecano | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 15.7% | 71.1% | 28.9% | 0.1% |
| Girona | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.8% | 65.4% | 34.6% | 0.3% |
| Betis | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 11.5% | 60.6% | 39.4% | 0.4% |
| Mallorca | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0% | 48.8% | 51.2% | 0.6% |
| Celta | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 49.0% | 51.0% | 0.7% |
| Osasuna | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.4% | 45.3% | 54.7% | 0.8% |
| Sevilla | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 37.0% | 63.0% | 1.5% |
| Getafe | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 19.5% | 80.5% | 4.8% |
| Valencia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 8.2% | 91.8% | 14.3% |
| Las Palmas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 97.0% | 29.2% |
| Alaves | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.1% | 96.9% | 30.0% |
| Espanyol | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 99.3% | 59.1% |
| Leganes | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 99.5% | 60.0% |
| Valladolid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 98.1% |
What is BETSiE?
BETSiE projects the entire La Liga season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the La Liga fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the La Liga season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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