football | Friday, August 26, 2022 11:08 AM

The Line’s Off Aug 27th-28th: 4 Goal Kicks Lines the Bookies have Got Wrong This Weekend

Scott Thornton

The Line’s Off: 4 Goal Kicks Lines the Bookies have Got Wrong This Weekend

This week, I’ll be focusing on the goal kicks market offered by bet365. I will assess where the value is and predict the number of goal kicks each team should take. This market is available on all matches selected for TV in the UK, so let’s get stuck in.

In this article:

Goal Kick Market
Southampton vs Man Utd Preview & Best Bet
Arsenal vs Fulham Preview & Best Bet
Wolves vs Newcastle Preview & Best Bet
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Preview & Best Bet

Goal Kicks Market Preview

bet365 are the main bookmaker that offers this market. Their Bet Builder allows us to take advantage of both under and over the lines. Early goals can play a big part in how many goal kicks a team ends up with, so the quality of the opponent and their record is key.

The key in a market for long-term profitability like this is predicting where the bookmaker line should be. I have developed a system of predicting the lines that factors in the team’s recent matches, overall season averages, head-to-heads, and matches where the team has been similarly priced to win outright. Goal kicks are closely linked to shots. If one team racks up a high amount of shots, their opponents should take a good number of goal kicks as some efforts inevitably miss the target.

This weekend is particularly interesting for this market, as the two dominant teams in recent years (Man City and Liverpool) are not selected for TV, so there are some tricky lines to predict. Let’s take a look at some of the goal kick lines

Southampton vs Manchester Utd Preview

England, Premier League, Saturday, August 27th, 12:30 (UK)

Manchester United beat their great rivals, Liverpool in their last match, and they scored early on in the game. This meant that it was no surprise that Ten Hag’s men racked up 16 goal kicks in that game, but I don’t expect their number to be as high here.

The model predicts that United will have around 5.4 goal kicks in this match. An early goal for the visitors would be detrimental to any unders goal kicks bet for them, but they should be able to exercise a greater deal of control in this one. United had just five goal kicks in this fixture last season, and a key factor in the predicted figure is how the Saints have faired in similar matches. Their opponents are averaging under four goal kicks per game in matches where they have been similarly priced to win.

Southampton vs Man Utd Goal Kicks Best Bet

The predicted number of goal kicks for Southampton is 8.59. They had 11 in this fixture last season, and Erik Ten Hag’s side should display a great deal of attacking intent as they look to build momentum.

Selection: Southampton Over 6.5 Goal Kicks & Man Utd Under 7.5 Goal Kicks (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.90 (bet365)
Stakes: 8/10

More Southampton vs Manchester United Tips

Arsenal vs Fulham Preview

England, Premier League, Saturday, August 27th, 17:30 (UK)

Arsenal are the only team in the league with a perfect record. They host a Fulham side who have shown they are more than capable of slugging it with the big boys this season. Arsenal have had four goal kicks or fewer in all of their games so far this season, while Fulham have had at least seven in all of theirs.

The model predicts that Arsenal will have 4.97 goal kicks in the match, which makes the line set by 365 fair. This means that there is no expected value on backing Arsenal goal kicks, whether that be under or over.

Arsenal vs Fulham Goal Kicks Best Bet

Fulham are predicted to have 7.95 goal kicks in this one. Marco Silva’s men have pressed their opponents high in early games, and they only had eight goal kicks when they played Liverpool, despite leading for large periods in the match.

Selection: Fulham Under 8.5 Goal Kicks (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.20 (Bet365)
Stakes: 6/10

More Arsenal vs Fulham Tips

Wolves vs Newcastle Preview

England, Premier League, Sunday, August 28th, 14:00 (UK)

Newcastle earned a point against the champions last weekend, and they face a winless Wolves this week. This match is intriguing in terms of goal kicks, but there is definitely some angles to go at.

The model predicts that the home side will have 6.03 goal kicks in this one. They had six in their last home match against Fulham, and they showed against Tottenham that they are capable of playing well and preventing any opponent from laying siege to their goal.

Wolves vs Newcastle Goal Kicks Best Bet

The visitors are predicted to have 8.57 goal kicks in this one. Newcastle had nine goal kicks in their first away game against Brighton, and they were only able to force goal kicks in that one. The Magpies are averaging 8.9 goal kicks per game in their last 10 away matches.

Wolves will be chasing their first win, and I expect them to attack from the off. I will back goal kicks for the visitors in this one, and the line set by bet365 is very appealing.

Selection: Over 7.5 Goal Kicks For Newcastle (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.10 (Bet365)
Stakes: 7/10

More Wolves vs Newcastle Tips

Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Preview

England, Premier League, Sunday, August 28th, 16:30 (UK)

Nottingham Forest spent last season in the Championship and have not been in the Premier League for a number of years, so the data when predicting this goal kick line is less pertinent than others. However, we are still able to anticipate how the game will go by factoring team strength and how it may impact Forest’s numbers.

The home side are predicted to have 7.33 goal kicks in this one, but there is every chance they exceed this number against a side that possess the attacking quality of Spurs. Many of the similar priced matches for Spurs were played in European competition, and the data for those games could be considered skewed as motivation level dwindled.

Forest had 10 goal kicks versus West Ham, but that could have been very different if West Ham’s disallowed goal had stood. Many of those goal kicks came near the end with West Ham desperately chasing the game

Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Goal Kicks Best Bet

The model predicts that Spurs will have 6.28 goal kicks in this one. Conte’s side really struggled against Wolves in the first half last week, and they had eight goal kicks as a result.

It’s a difficult one to find an angle for. The predicted match line is lower than expected, and there is a great deal of uncertainty with how both teams will perform. Spurs are capable of blowing them away here, but they haven’t looked at their best in recent weeks. That’s why I’m going under on goal kicks here with small stakes.

Selection: Under 14.5 Goal Kicks in Match
Odds: 2.00 (bet365)
Stakes: 4/10

More Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Tips

Odds via bet365 as at 12:00, August 26th 2022. Odds may now differ.

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