football | Friday, August 19, 2022 1:26 PM (Revised at: Friday, August 19, 2022 1:28 PM)

The Line’s Off: Four Picks for The Shots Line The Bookies Have Got Wrong This Weekend

Scott Thornton

The Line’s Off: August 20th-21st

Proposition bets have become hugely popular across all sports in recent years. In this piece, I will preview some of the team prop lines across all of Saturday’s Premier League matches and give you tips on what to back, and what to avoid.

In this article:

Shot Market Preview
Tottenham vs Wolves Preview & Best Bet
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa Preview & Best Bet
Everton vs Nottingham Forest Preview & Best Bet
Bournemouth vs Arsenal Preview & Best Bet

Shots Market Preview

Shots have been a hugely popular market since UK bookmakers have offered the market, and it’s easy to see why. Lot of sites are offering teams to hit over a certain amount of shots, and willing a team on to have an attempt at goal is what football is about.

The key in a market for long-term profitability like this is predicting where the bookmaker line should be. I have developed a system of predicting the lines that factors in the team’s recent matches, overall season averages, head-to-heads, and matches where the team has been similarly priced to win outright.

There isn’t always value to be found. Looking at Leicester vs Southampton as an example, my model predicts that the Foxes will have marginally more shots than the hosts at 13.11 to 12.45. Looking at the odds, the bookies have that one pretty much spot on.

Football is ultimately unpredictable, so predicting the exact amount of shots a team will have is unrealistic, but it’s possible to assess whether the line offered by the bookmaker has any value in the long-term.

Tottenham vs Wolves Preview

England, Premier League, Saturday, August 20th, 12:30 (UK)

There are a number of interesting match-ups on Saturday, and the predicted shot lines have sprung some surprises. The early game between Spurs and Wolves jumps out immediately. Spurs are expected to do big things this season, and they should spend much of this game on the front foot.

My predicted amount of shots for the home side here was 17.67. The bookmakers have set the line at 15.5, so immediately there is some value here. Spurs had 18 shots in their opening home game, and Wolves are more than capable of remaining stern early on and forcing Conte’s men into having several attempts on goal in order to break them down.

The predicted amount of shots for Wolves is 9.65. This is extremely close to the bookmakers’ line of 9.5. I would suggest that you avoid the overall match shots line in favour of Spurs’ shots as a result.

Selection: Spurs Over 15.5 Shots (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.83 (bet365)
Stakes: 8/10

More Tottenham vs Wolves Tips

Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa Preview

England, Premier League, Saturday, August 20th, 15:00 (UK)

Crystal Palace impressed with the way they defended at Anfield on Monday night, but it’s a very different sort of challenge for them here. Aston Villa have started the season in a disappointing fashion, so they will need to respond at Selhurst Park.

Both teams are predicted to have a similar amount of shots here according to the betting model. Palace are expected to have 10.68, while Villa are expected to have 10.05. Villa also had more shots than Palace when the team’s met at Selhurst Park last season.

For this reason, I’m going to back Villa +1 on the team shots handicap with BoyleSports.

Selection: Villa Team Shots Handicap +1 (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.05 (BoyleSports)
Stakes: 7/10

More Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa Tips

Everton vs Nottingham Forest Preview

England, Premier League, Saturday, August 20th, 15:00 (UK)

Forest impressed in their last home game, and they racked up the shots in the process. They had 13 shots against West Ham, even though they led for over half of the match. They should take confidence from that win into this one, and look to take the game to Everton.

The predicted amount of shots for Everton is 11.27, while Forest are predicted to have 11.94 shots. There is a question mark about the data with one of the sides coming from the Championship, but there looks to be some value in this one.

Forest to have the most shots in the match is priced at 3.30 with BoyleSports, so I’m happy to have a smaller stake on this one.

Selection: Forest To Have The Most Shots
Best Odds: 3.30 (BoyleSports)
Stakes: 3/10

More Everton vs Nottingham Forest Tips

Bournemouth vs Arsenal Preview

England, Premier League, Saturday, August 20th, 17:30 (UK)

Finally, we have Bournemouth hosting Arsenal. The Cherries conceded 15 shots in their opening home game, and have since conceded 19 shots at the Etihad.

Bournemouth’s data from their previous stint in the Premier League has been factored in here. Although it was a few seasons ago, it seemed more relevant than their last season in the Championship, where they went into most games as favourites.

The model predicts the home side to have 7.39 shots, while the visitors are predicted to have 16.86. The Arsenal shot line is extremely close to what the bookmakers are offering, but there is some value here.

bet365 have under 8.5 Bournemouth shots priced at 2.00, and I’m happy to have a small bet on this given the predicted line. Arsenal showed they are capable of restricting their opponents against Leicester, and the Cherries will be on the back foot for most of the game.

Selection: Under 8.5 Shots For Bournemouth
Best Odds: 2.00 (bet365)
Stakes: 5/10

Best odds available as at 12:00, August 19th 2022. Odds may now differ.

More Bournemouth vs Arsenal Tips

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