Top Four Betting Tips: Why Chelsea and Man City Odds Lack Value

Our in-house projection model suggests both Chelsea and Manchester City are likely to secure top-four finishes this season. Chelsea are projected to accumulate 67.7 points with a 65.1% likelihood of finishing in a Champions League spot, while Manchester City are tipped for 66.1 points with a 51.9% chance.

However, current betting odds heavily favor these clubs. Bookmakers offer average odds of 1.36 (73.5% implied probability) for Chelsea and 1.44 (70% implied probability) for City. Despite these projections, their inconsistent form raises doubts about the value in these bets.

City have struggled recently, winning just one of 13 games between late October and December. Chelsea, although performing better than last season at this stage, face questions over game management and consistency.

Chelsea’s Festive Struggles

Chelsea have historically thrived in December, amassing the third-highest points total in Premier League history during this month. However, this season’s 2-1 loss to Fulham on Boxing Day has dented their momentum.

In Mauricio Pochettino’s final 20 league matches last season, Chelsea picked up 41 points—five more than their current tally after 20 games. If their performance levels revert to averages, Chelsea could finish with just 64 points, which might fall short of a top-four berth.

At odds of 3.4 (29.4% implied probability), betting on Chelsea to miss the top four could provide better value.

Manchester City’s Winter Revival

Manchester City, currently sixth, have shown vulnerabilities, particularly defensively. Yet, signs of improvement are emerging. In their 4-1 victory over West Ham, Pep Guardiola fielded the same starting XI for consecutive matches—a rarity in recent years. Erling Haaland rediscovered form with a brace, while Savinho has impressed with back-to-back goal contributions.

Historically, City have dominated the winter period, often going unbeaten. Last season, they dropped just eight points from December onwards. Our projection model gives them a slim 7.4% chance of finishing in the top two, but their upward trajectory and winter form make a second-place finish an enticing prospect at favorable odds.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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