West Ham vs Burnley Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

After a full house last week, bettingexpert Football Editor, Sam Ingram, joins host Daniel Jenkins for another couple of tips for this weekend’s action. The boys pick apart the Manchester Derby and discuss the gloom amongst the doom at Torquay United.

The tips look at all three Premier League title contender’s chances on the weekend either side of a surprise quiz that may cost Sam his reputation as a tipster…

• You can watch the video of this podcast on our YouTube channel
• The bettingexpert Football Podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts.

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West Ham vs Burnley Tip 1: Hammering into the Hammers

England, Premier League, Sunday, March 10th, 14:00 (UK)

David Moyes has West Ham in seventh place in the Premier League and in the last-16 of the Europa League.

This clash with Burnley comes sandwiched in between the continental clash with Freiburg. The first leg of which is yet to be played as I write on Wednesday morning.

I can only assume the UEL game has skewed the odds of this Premier League meeting with the Clarets because the 1.60 about the hosts in the 1×2 certainly appeals.

The Hammers made a terrible start to 2024 with a winless run stretching across eight games, during which they were knocked out of the FA Cup by Championship side Bristol City and only took three points from the 18 on offer in the Premier League.

It should come as little surprise to see this blip coincided with the absence of several key players.

David Moyes was without Mohammed Kudus (AFCON) and Lucas Paqueta (injury) leaving them without any creativity, evident as they only scored three goals in six league games.

The duo have since returned to start West Ham’s last two games, and they have won both and scored seven goals in the process.

Taking the hosts with a -1 Asian handicap is the bet here.

• West Ham vs Burnley Tip 1: West Ham Asian Handicap (-1) (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: bet365
• Bookmaker: 2.08
• Stake: 10/10

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West Ham vs Burnley Tip 2: Kudos to Kudus

Only Sheffield United (72) have conceded more goals than Burnley (60) this term. The Clarets are conceding an average of 15.2 shots a game which rises to 17.8 away from home and in 14 games against top half sides, the opposition have had 235 shots.

In the reverse, West Ham only had 11 shots, one of which came from Mohammed Kudus, but I think the Ghanaian winger will have more this time around.

Since he returned from AFCON, Kudus appears to have opted for a shoot-on-site approach.

In five games, the winger has notched up 18 attempts, only failing to have at least three against Arsenal and at the City Ground.

Kudus hit four at Old Trafford and Goodison and six against Brentford. At a shade of odds on backing him to have at least three shots appeals against Burnley.

• West Ham vs BurnleyTip 2: Mohammed Kudus Over 2.5 Shots (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: bet365
• Bookmaker: 1.90
• Stake: 10/10

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West Ham vs Burnley Tip 3: Don’t Paq in the assists Lucas

In his two league starts since the turn of the year, Lucas Paqueta has not had a goal involvement but has threatened to do so with four shots and three key passes.

Across the campaign he has averaged more key passes (1.5) then he has shots (1.3) and with only two goals but five assists, it is his price for the latter that interests me on Sunday.

The Brazilian has only failed to complete at least one pass that leads to a shot in four of his 20 appearances this campaign, and two of those came against title contenders Manchester City and Arsenal.

In three appearances against the current bottom three, Paqueta has notched up four key passes and set up one goal.

It is also worth noting Burnley have only kept one clean sheet on the road, shipping 26 goals in the process. Against the top eight, they have conceded 14 in five on their travels.

• West Ham vs Burnley Tip 3: Lucas Paqueta Assist (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 4.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 1/10

West Ham vs Burnley Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:30, March 6th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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West Ham vs Burnley Team News and Possible Lineups: Paq is back

Hammers fans will be delighted to have Paqueta and Kudus back and available, and both should start here, even though the former has not completed any of the last two games he has started.

Having looked like they came through the clash with Everton unscathed, Moyes could name the same XI on Sunday. Obviously, this could all change, though, with them still to play Freiburg on Thursday as I write. 

As for the visitors, Josh Brownhill is serving the second game of his three match suspension so Josh Cullen should continue in the middle of the park alongside Sander Berge.

Burnley’s joint top goalscorer Zeki Amdouni was dropped last weekend but could return up front in London on Sunday.

West Ham possible starting lineup: Areola; Coufal, Mavropanos, Zouma, Emerson; Soucek, Alvarez; Kudus, Ward-Prowse, Paqueta; Bowen

Burnley possible starting lineup: Trafford; Assignon, O’Shea, Esteve, Taylor; Larsen, Berge, Cullen, Odobert; Fofana, Amdouni

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The Predicted West Ham vs Burnley League Standings by BETSiE

Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the League standings ahead of the West Ham vs Burnley, currently 7th vs 19th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.

For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.

West Ham vs Burnley Standings Prediction

Position	Club	Games	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Points
1	Liverpool	38	25.9	8.0	4.1	89.3	37.4	51.9	85.8
2	Arsenal	38	26.5	6.1	5.4	91.4	30.9	60.5	85.7
3	Manchester City	38	25.7	7.2	5.1	84.9	37.8	47.2	84.4
4	Aston Villa	38	21.4	6.3	10.3	77.5	55.4	22.0	70.4
5	Tottenham	38	19.6	7.4	11.0	76.5	61.4	15.0	66.3
6	Manchester Utd	38	17.5	4.4	16.1	52.6	58.7	-6.1	56.9
7	Newcastle	38	16.7	6.2	15.0	79.3	65.5	13.8	56.5
8	Chelsea	38	15.6	8.4	14.0	68.4	63.1	5.3	55.3
9	West Ham	38	15.2	8.3	14.5	58.3	68.4	-10.1	54.0
10	Brighton	38	14.0	11.5	12.5	65.0	61.3	3.7	53.4
11	Wolverhampton	38	14.6	7.4	15.9	54.7	61.3	-6.5	51.3
12	Bournemouth	38	13.3	9.7	15.0	54.8	63.9	-9.1	49.5
13	Fulham	38	13.8	7.6	16.6	54.9	59.7	-4.8	49.1
14	Brentford	38	11.6	7.4	19.0	57.3	67.0	-9.7	42.2
15	Everton	38	12.7	9.5	15.8	46.4	52.4	-5.9	41.6
16	Crystal Palace	38	10.2	9.6	18.2	44.8	64.6	-19.8	40.1
17	Nottingham Forest	38	10.1	8.8	19.1	48.9	64.0	-15.0	39.2
18	Luton	38	7.6	7.3	23.1	51.5	80.9	-29.4	30.1
19	Burnley	38	5.6	6.6	25.8	36.7	79.1	-42.4	23.5
20	Sheffield Utd	38	5.2	6.4	26.4	32.9	93.4	-60.5	22.0

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Match OPTA Stats: No stopping at Kompany’s Twenty

• Burnley have lost each of their last four away league games, conceding exactly three goals in each. The  Clarets last lost more successive Premier League away matches from November 2016 to February 2017  (7), while this is their longest run of conceding 3+ goals away from home in the competition since  November 2009 (6 in a row).
• James Ward-Prowse has seven Premier League assists this season, the most of any West Ham player.  Since his debut season in the competition in 2012-13, he has more assists from set plays than any other  player (30), although Burnley are the only side he’s faced more than three times in the Premier League  without scoring or assisting against them (12 games, 849 minutes).
• Against Bournemouth, Burnley manager Vincent Kompany suffered his 20th Premier League defeat as boss in his 27th game, with only Mick McCarthy losing 20 games in fewer matches as a manager in the  competition (23). Kompany’s final 20 defeats as a Premier League player came over a period of 155  appearances.
• West Ham have won both of their last two Premier League games, scoring seven goals in the process, as  many as they had netted in their previous eight league fixtures beforehand. The Hammers could score 3+  goals in three consecutive Premier League matches within a single season for the first time since April  2021.

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West Ham Fixtures: Fighting on two fronts

• Vs Freiburg (H)
• Vs Aston Villa (H)
• Vs Newcastle (A)
• Vs Tottenham (H)
• Vs Wolves (A)

Burnley Fixtures: Too late

• Vs Brentford (H)
• Vs Chelsea (A)
• Vs Wolves (H)
• Vs Everton (A)
• Vs Brighton (H)

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