Better Collective A/S,
Sankt Annæ Plads 28, 1250 Kobenhavn K,
Denmark (DK)
Phone: +45-29919965
Email: [email protected]
CVR/Org.nr: 27652913
18+ | Wagering and T&Cs apply | Play Responsibly | Commercial content | Advertising disclosure
Lovely win from Lin Zhu, who nearly blew it, but recovered the break just in time to cover both our handicaps from Monday’s preview. We start the U.S. Open off nicely!
Tuesday brings another action-packed day of action, with dozens of tennis matches on offer. For the WTA side of things, we’ll preview Peyton Stearns vs Viktoriya Tomova.
In this article:
Count me in to back the former collegiate standout in Stearns in this matchup. Tomova simply doesn’t have much-attacking tennis in her game and has struggled to really beat tour-level calibre players.
She’s coming off a win at the 125K level in Chicago last week, but I’m not sure anyone she beat there would be as strong as Stearns is at the moment on hard courts in 2023.
When she has played stronger competition on hard courts this season, we’ve seen the Bulgarian suffer some relatively lopsided defeats.
To me, that is the most likely way she loses this match should Stearns emerge victorious, so I’ll happily take the handicap here.
Read on for more expert insights.
As one may expect from a 21-year-old in her first season on tour, the 2023 campaign has been a mixed bag for the American.
She has a few titles at the ITF level, along with her maiden WTA final in Bogota earlier this year.
She’s also beaten some decent opposition, and many of her losses have come at the hands of players like Sloane Stephens, Daria Kasatkina, Jessica Pegula, Marketa Vondrousova, Bianca Andreescu and Caroline Garcia. What’s more is in many of those losses she’s been fairly competitive.
With an aggressive style and enough power to utilise the quicker conditions that hard courts provide, I think she’s been given an excellent draw, relative to some of the other opponents that she could’ve been pitted against in the opening round.
As I mentioned earlier, Tomova is coming off a 125K title on hard courts in Chicago just last week, and there’s a good possibility that’s what is keeping this from being the 4.5-to-5-game handicap that it really should be in the betting markets.
Other than that, we’ve seen her lose in routine fashion nine times already this season on hard courts and another few times on the quicker grass courts as well.
Her game is predicated on solidity from the baseline and getting a lot of balls back in play, trying to wait out errors from her competition.
That may work against Stearns, but more often than not, the stronger, more powerful game of the 21-year-old should be able to hit through her, and that’s where we find the value in this selection.
With Stearns being so new to the WTA Tour, it’s not a huge surprise that these two have yet to meet on the pro circuit.
The stat I want to feature in this section really highlights for me why Stearns should be an even larger favourite than she is.
It’s a combination of how poorly Tomova backs up her second serve, as well as how well Stearns manages to punish opponents who aren’t able to protect that second delivery.
For starters, Stearns and her aggressive game that has decent pop – especially on the forehand – has won at least 50% of opponents’ second serve points in each of her last eight matches. Toss in the fact that Tomova has won a paltry 37% of her second serve points on hard courts in the last 52 weeks at the top level of the game and you have a recipe for disaster if the Bulgarian can’t land the vast majority of her first serves.
Odds as at 3:45 am UK Time on August 29th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
At bettingexpert, we always take a responsible approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.