tennis | Monday, January 15, 2024 9:14 AM

Tennis Picks Today for January 15th: Australian Open Picks, Draper vs Giron and Auger Allaissime vs Thiem

Jon Reid

Tennis Picks Today: January 15th

Draper vs Giron: Draper -4.5 games
Auger Aliassime vs Thiem: Thiem to win

Go with our tip at bet365The Australian Open main draw is here, as the ATP and WTA schedules take a few weeks off (though the Challenger Tour continues on the ATP side – something we’ll look at next week when there is less value at a grand slam).

For our first previews of the big event, let’s break down Jack Draper vs Marcos Giron and Felix Auger Aliassime vs Dominic Thiem.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

In this article:

Jack Draper vs Marcos Giron Expert Tip
Jack Draper Recent Form
Marcos Giron Recent Form
Jack Draper vs Marcos Giron H2H Stat of the Match
Felix Auger Aliassime vs Dominic Thiem Expert Tip
Felix Auger Aliassime Recent Form
Dominic Thiem Recent Form
Felix Auger Aliassime H2H Stat of the Match
Safer Gambling

Jack Draper vs Marcos Giron (Australian Open) Free Pick: Youngster Too Strong for American Veteran

Pick: Draper -4.5 games
Best Odds: 1.83
Bookmaker: bet365
Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 12:15 am UK Time on January 15th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Go with our tip at bet365This is going to be a popular pick, but there’s a reason for that. Forget the recent form that has Draper looking really good heading into the year’s first major and Giron struggling, but the matchup itself is pretty one-sided.

Draper has the bigger serve, more power, and better net presence and he moves just as well if not better than his counterpart in this one. That also means his defending and ability to extend rallies is also pretty good for someone who also has the power he does.

I’m not sure how Giron hits through him, finds many break chances or competes for him in a best-of-five sets format that rewards the better player.

Read on for more expert insights.

Jack Draper Recent Form

This is going to be a big part of any handicap you see backing Draper. He had a great week in Adelaide and was a set from winning the title this past week.

That certainly is worth considering, but it shouldn’t be the entire reason one backs him in this spot.

There are other reasons that make him an appealing candidate to bet on. His potential has widely be seen as a top-10 or top-15 player for a few years now, as he not only has that balanced game of a powerful attack and strong movement and defending, but he also has that lefty quirkiness that confounds so many (the AD side lefty serve out wide is like a cheat code if used effectively).

Marcos Giron Recent Form

I’ve always respected the game of Giron – a player I think is generally underrated, and whose work ethic has been so important in his rise to the top-75.

That said, we saw what happens to him when he takes on a big guy who can defend and also has power of his own last week in Auckland.

After a strong start against Daniel Altmaier (a theme that will come up once more in this article), he really struggled to gain any footing in return games and was forced to overhit and aim for smaller targets, resulting in more errors behind his own serve.

That tactic is one that can be replicated with relative ease by Draper, who is a much better and more natural hard courter than the German.

With Giron being underpowered in this matchup and being in poorer form, it’s tough to see a path to victory for him that doesn’t include a physical breakdown for the Brit.

Jack Draper vs Marcos Giron H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior meetings between these two, but as I mentioned in the Giron form section, I do think we have a reasonable comparison to evaluate this matchup with from last week.

If Draper is finding cheap points on serve, one would think this will be a one-sided contest with regard to pressure being applied in the American service games.

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Dominic Thiem (Australian Open) Free Pick: Thiem to Upset Struggling Canadian

Pick: Thiem to win
Best Odds: 2.81
Bookmaker: Pinnacle
Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 12:15 am UK Time on January 15th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

This match won’t take place until Tuesday morning, but because it will kick off so early, we’re going to preview it in our Monday column.

It has been a struggle in recent times for each of these two, but I’m convinced that Thiem is on the precipice of a breakthrough.

The former U.S. Open champion’s ranking has dropped and it has led to a lot of tough draws at tournaments – much like this one – where he’s been incredibly competitive and has lost at the margins.

Even if that’s the case in this match, I am willing to take the risk at the given odds. His game is still explosive and he’s shown the ability to go five sets physically. He should also have a few matchup advantages that keep him competitive.

Read on for more expert insights.

Felix Auger Aliassime Recent Form

Outside of a much-needed title defence in Basel, Auger Aliassime has had a miserable time on tour since last March, only reaching the quarterfinals of Tokyo and the aforementioned event in Basel.

His struggles extended into the new season, with an opening match loss to Daniel Altmaier in Auckland last week. It was a match that saw him start well, play aggressively and jump out to an early lead. His lack of tactical awareness, however, cost him, as Altmaier came back to win in straight sets.

Along with really poor unforced errors from his forehand, that inability to target opposition weaknesses has cost him close sets and ultimately matches for quite some time.

Kinks within his game can be ironed out with hitting on the court, but that tennis IQ is showing no signs of improvement and that leads me to believe his struggles will continue.

Dominic Thiem Recent Form

Thiem has also had major struggles making runs at tournaments in the last few months, often coming agonisingly close to victory, before losing in heartbreaking fashion.

In fact, his losses to end 2023 came in three sets to Ugo Humbert, Holger Rune, by a one break margin to Stefanos Tsitisipas, and in three setters against the rising Yannick Hanfmann – in a match he dominated – Gabriel Diallo and Sebastian Ofner.

I would contend that the form on court has looked far better than the results would indicate and I don’t think he should be a 2.80-odds underdog against a struggling Auger Aliassime.

He’s still got a great backhand (something his opponent does not possess), explosiveness on his forehand when it’s left short in the court and his serve is more than adequate to take advantage of the quick conditions.

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Dominic Thiem H2H – Stat of the Match

The lone time these two met on the pro tour was at the U.S. Open. Thiem won that match, but it was a few years ago, and Auger Aliassime was visibly hampered physically after the first set.

Tough to read too much into that or make it a reason to bet on Thiem in this encounter.

They also played in an exhibition event late in 2022. Auger Aliassime won that, but it was a tight two-tiebreak affair.

All in all, this should be a tight matchup, and I’m happy to take the higher odds on offer.

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

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