tennis | Tuesday, May 31, 2022 2:35 PM (Revised at: Thursday, June 2, 2022 11:26 AM)

Thursday's Tennis Best Bet: French Open June 2nd

Jon Reid

WTA French Open Best Bet: Swiatek vs Kasatkina

Thursday, June 2nd, 14:00 UK Time

Iga Swiatek comes through at the last moment to secure the -6 game handicap in the quarterfinal round against Jessica Pegula, and it’ll be a quick turnaround for the world No. 1 as she is right back at it on Thursday against Daria Kasatkina.

It wasn’t the most convincing 6-3, 6-2 victory for Swiatek, who started out really slowly, hitting far too many unforced errors. Pegula was also able to take advantage of many balls she hit too passively and left centrally in the court.

Luckily for the Polish star, the next matchup favours her even more than the last.

Kasatkina looked even more shaky in her matchup with Veronika Kudermetova. Despite a strong first set and a half, Kasatkina’s level dipped and her ability to move the ball around the court and hit with big spin through the clay petered off at the end. The worry of fatigue in that spot – without a day of rest before the semifinal against the world’s most dominant player – is certainly there.

In addition to that potential fatigue, a lot works for Swiatek in this matchup. While she’s now used to being the aggressor in her matches, even if she occasionally gets passive as she did in the quarterfinal, Kasatkina is far less capable of generating pace and punishing that passive play than Pegula was.

Furthermore, the Russian’s added topspin this season on the dirt isn’t something that will bother Swiatek. If anything, that ball will sit up and allow Swiatek to punish it and put Kasatkina in an even more defensive position.

Then there’s the service issue. Kasatkina has improved her game a lot this year, but her serve is still one of the more vulnerable among the top-20 players. Factor in the Pole being the best returner in women’s tennis by a country mile at the moment and you’ve got a recipe for disaster. Especially considering she was hitting her second serve late in the match with Kudermetova at just 56 km/h on average.

Finally, as much as Swiatek left a few too many balls too centrally in the court against Pegula (keep in mind, despite the critique, she still won by a seven-game margin), Kasatkina did the same in her match. Many were punished, and if that’s done against Swiatek, many more will be punished by one of the best clay-court forehands in the world on Thursday afternoon.

There just isn’t a whole lot that Kasatkina can do to really push Swiatek out of her comfort zone in this matchup to begin with. Factor in the potential fatigue from her quarterfinal match and the way Swiatek moves players around the court and saps their energy with the heavy topspin groundstrokes, and this one has the makings of a drubbing.