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tennis | Tuesday, May 10, 2022 7:27 AM (Revised at: Tuesday, May 10, 2022 10:59 AM)

Tuesday's Tennis Best Bet: ATP Rome, May 10th

Tuesday's Tennis Best Bet: ATP Rome, May 10th
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ATP Rome Best Bet: David Goffin vs Hubert Hurkacz

Tuesday May 10th, approximately 13:00 (UK Time)

Tough go for Albert Ramos Vinolas, who looked poised to send his match the distance with a break lead in the second set, before losing five of the final six games to sink Monday’s selection.

Onto Tuesday, where the veteran David Goffin’s price is very tempting. Prior to the clay season, when Goffin was struggling mightily, this price may have been more understandable. Given his resurgent form, however, and the slower conditions in Rome, this is a nice spot to back the underdog to win outright.

The Belgian has already claimed a title on the red dirt this season in Marrakech, beating a number of tough, defensively-minded players along the way, made the third round in Monte Carlo – only losing to the eventual finalist in Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – and nearly toppled the King of Clay himself, Rafael Nadal last week in Madrid after having won four matches between qualifying and the main draw. The 31-year-old has clearly recaptured that form that had him a mainstay in the top-25 for years.

Another reason to like Goffin in this one, would be the slower conditions in Rome. Played at sea level, unlike Madrid, Hurkacz won’t find nearly as many free points on serve as he does on hard courts or even in the altitude of the Spanish capital. That could prove to be key, considering Hurkacz’s game is predicated on his service abilities. He’s posted career high hold and ace rates this season (89.9% and 16.0% respectively). He’s also winning more service points behind his first and second serves than he ever has before. While those are all impressive numbers, it’s important to remember that in places like Rome – and then Paris for the French Open – the pace behind those serves won’t be as impactful. Someone as solid from the baseline as Goffin should find the task of breaking Hurkacz a tad easier than those who played him earlier on in the year.

Hurkacz’s 6-2 record on the clay this season hasn’t really featured many dominant wins, either. He’s picked up two wins against a Challenger Tour level player in Hugo Dellien, narrowly beat Davidovich Fokina and also needed three sets as a decently-sized favourite against Pedro Martinez. The Polish number one is a bit more vulnerable than his 2022 clay record would suggest.

  • Selection: Goffin to win
  • Best Odds: 2.28 (Unibet)
  • Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 20:30 UK Time, May 9th. Odds may differ now

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