Wednesday's Tennis Best Bet: ATP Rome, May 11th
ATP Rome Best Bet: Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Karen Khachanov
Wednesday May 11th, 11:30am (UK Time)
Glad to be into the win column, with David Goffin coming through in two tiebreaks against Hubert Hurkacz. Made it a little tougher on himself than he needed to, but came through nonetheless, as his solidity from the baseline was the difference in the end.
Wednesday’s best bet will once again come from the men’s draw, in a match featuring a very similar type handicap. This time, however, the favourite appears to be showing some value in the betting markets on the game handicap.
Pablo Carreno Busta has made a name for himself as a rock-solid, top-25 mainstay. He’s a player that generally beats those he’s expected to, while having a tough time racking up wins against the best in the game. Those to beat him since Miami? Young gun sensations Jannik Sinner & Carlos Alcaraz, and one of the game’s best, Alexander Zverev. Botic van de Zandschulp would be the outlier loss, but his game features more consistency than Carreno Busta’s next opponent, Karen Khachanov.
Not only does the Spanish No. 3 typically beat players like Karen Khachanov, but there’s also a matchup advantage to consider here. Much like Tuesday’s selection, Khachanov has a big game, one must admit. When his serve and forehand are clicking, he’s going to find his fair share of holds on any surface. His top level, however, has been tough to sustain, and he’s shown dips in form time and time again within matches. Factor in a slower surface, that will allow Carreno Busta to prolong points, and force Khachanov to hit those extra rally shots, and the likelihood he elicits those unforced errors from the big-hitting Russian increases.
The final factor that’s encouraging when assessing this matchup, is that even in matches where Khachanov has won a set, his opponent has managed to cover a handicap of 2.5 games several times this season. Diego Schwartzman and Novak Djokovic both dropped the opening set, yet won by five or more games in the end. Lucas Pouille also covered this handicap as an underdog last week in Madrid.
- Selection: Carreno Busta -2.5 games
- Odds: 1.86 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 3/10
Odds as of 5pm UK Time, May 10th. Odds may differ now
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