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The 4-0 Philadelphia Eagles are the NFL’s only unbeaten team heading into Week 5. They are favoured by 5.5 against the 2-2 Arizona Cardinals, who have conceded the fifth-most points in the league through the first four weeks. The Cardinals are dealing with considerable injury issues, with A.J. Green, Rashard Lawrence and Zeke Turner all out, while J.J. Watt, Marquise Brown and several others are questionable for this game.
Jalen Hurts has forced his way into the MVP conversation in the early weeks of the season, and Philadelphia looks set to run away with the NFC East.
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Sun, Oct 9. 21:25 (UK time)
Philadelphia is fourth in points scored and ninth by points conceded. They are also 3-1 against the spread in 2022. Arizona is 2-2, but it’s hard to have any faith in their defence against this Eagles offence. The Cards held the Panthers to 16 points last time out, though that isn’t exactly a projection of how it will play out against Philly. Arizona was torched for 44 points by Kansas City and allowed 23 to the Raiders.
For this bet builder, it makes most sense to stay away from the spread. It is tempting to go Eagles -2.5, but it provides more value to just go with the moneyline, even at 1.43.
The total is set at 49.5, a tricky halfway house number for these two offences. Arizona has cashed the over just once in four games, yet this could descend into something of a shootout like the Eagles had with the Jaguars. Arizona’s last two games have been low-scoring, though, so pushing the total up and going for an under seems like a decent option here. Both teams have gone under 54.5 total points in each of their last three games.
While it might seem contradictory to taking an under, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop really leaps off the page. Brown is averaging north of 100 receiving yards per game this season. Only three teams allow more yards per pass attempt than Arizona. The Cardinals also have the lowest sack rate in the NFL, giving Hurts time to pick out his number one receiver.
As such, Brown’s line of 74.5 seems on the low side. He has gone over this in three of four games.
To wrap up this one, let’s go into a slightly different market with the race to 10 points. Philadelphia has got off to hot starts this season, often having the game all but wrapped up by the half. They average 23 points per first half, most in the NFL.
Arizona has the worst first half offence at four points on average over the first two periods. With the Cardinals slow out the blocks in every game, there’s great value on the Eagles to reach 10 points first.
Bet Builder Odds: 5.25
Odds as at 12:45 pm on October 6th, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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