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The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals meet on Sunday in the Divisional Round of the 2023 NFL Playoffs in what is bound to be an emotional few hours. The teams faced off in an initially pivotal regular season game a few weeks ago, which was abandoned in terrifying circumstances after the injury to Bills safety Damar Hamlin.
Since then, there has been widespread debate about how to address playoff seeding, and the outcome is the Bills and Bengals playing at Highmark Stadium on Sunday. Buffalo is favoured by 5.5 points.
Cincinnati overcame the Baltimore Ravens by a score of 24-17 to set up this clash. That made it three straight games with the Bengals conceding 18 or fewer points, while the Bills pulled off a three-point win over the Miami Dolphins.
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Sun, Jan 22. 20:00 (UK time)
Preseason Super Bowl favourites, Buffalo was second in both scoring and defence. The Bengals were top seven in points allowed and conceded. This is a meeting of two juggernauts, two teams with very realistic hopes of lifting the Vince Lombardi Trophy next month.
Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are dynamic quarterbacks capable of navigating even elite defences like they will each face on Sunday night. Allen bounced back from a late-season blip with 352 yards last week. Burrow has had 200 or more passing yards in every game this season – take the passing yards milestone for the former first overall pick.
The Bengals are only middle of the pack in net yards per pass attempt allowed, and they are below average when it comes to hurrying the quarterback. One area of strength for Cincy is forcing turnovers (ninth in turnover rate on defence), and Allen has been intercepted five times in his last three games.
While there are playmakers on both defences, it is a huge ask to expect either to shut down the opposing offence. These teams have too much firepower and too many ways to beat you. Despite their strong defensive showings, both teams have scored 15+ points in all but one of the Bengals’ games since Week 3.
In the Bills’ 11 games against teams with eight or more wins, both teams have scored 15 on nine occasions. We can feel very confident in both teams reaching that mark here.
This should be a cracker of a game between two extremely talented teams led by box-office young quarterbacks. There will be a few stops along the way, but these teams each average over three touchdowns per game this season, and combined for six trips to the endzone last week.
Over 4.5 touchdowns seems very reasonable to take this to 2.40. Home advantage makes a meaningful difference for Buffalo, and this bet builder can leap to 3.40 if you back the Bills moneyline, but this is a game which could really go either way.
Bet Builder Odds: 2.40 (tracked)
Odds as of 12:00 pm January 20th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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