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Thursday Night Football brings us a pivotal game in Week 5. Denver has been one of the early disappointments, going just 2-2 with a tough schedule to come. Indianapolis has fallen far short of expectations too, starting the year 1-2-1 with the lowest points scored tally in the NFL. Both teams are woefully short on confidence, and defeat for either would be another major setback.
Despite Russell Wilson’s struggles with his new team, the Broncos are three-point favourites for this game, indicating the bookies deem these teams pretty much even.
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Fri, Oct 7. 01:15 (UK time)
These are two of the three least productive offences in the league. Wilson has been a far cry from the MVP candidate we saw in Seattle. Matt Ryan has five touchdown passes and five interceptions, plus there is no Jonathan Taylor to help out the veteran quarterback. It has been a low-scoring start to the NFL season, and the under has generally been the way to go. The total is set at a paltry 41.5 here, which is pretty much as low as books will go.
To give a bit of wiggle room, we are going to take an alternate line of 45.5 and still go with the under. Indy has gone under this number in all four of its games. Denver has gone under this figure in three of four.
Protecting Ryan has been a major part of the Colts’ offensive woes. Only four quarterbacks have been sacked more times. Hardly the most mobile in the pocket, Ryan is a target for a Broncos defence which ranks top 10 in total sacks and top five in blitz rate. Bradley Chubb might only have one sack in his last three games, but he will be licking his lips at the prospect of going after this Colts offensive line. We like the odds on Chubb to record a sack.
Finding it challenging to move up the field, the Broncos have been forced into 2.5 field goal attempts per game. Only five teams average more. This Colts defence hasn’t exactly been perfect, but they will be able to get a few stops. As such, the field goal unit should make a few appearances for the Broncos. There’s value backing the hosts to make over 1.5 field goals.
Denver will give Melvin Gordon opportunity to assert himself here, aiming to ease the pressure on Wilson. That ploy is unlikely to work – Indy is allowing the second-fewest yards per rush, and Gordon has notched just 34 yards on the ground over his last two games. Gordon’s rushing yards line of 56.5 seems incredibly generous. Chuck the under into this bet builder to get to 10.00.
Bet Builder Odds: 10.00
Odds as at 12:45 am on October 6th, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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