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Despite a season which leaves them 4-12 heading into Week 18, the Denver Broncos are 2.5-point favourites over the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday night. A win over the Rams last week put the Chargers in control of their own destiny. They enter the final round of regular season games knowing a win will cement the fifth seed and a favourable Wild Card round matchup.
A loss here could see the Chargers slip to the sixth seed, which would mean a clash with the Bills, Chiefs, Bengals or Ravens on the road. Los Angeles, then, is fiercely motivated heading into this game, and had positive news on the injury front on Wednesday, with Trey Pipkins and Zander Horvath the only players limited.
In this article:
Sun, Jan 08. 21:25 (UK time)
On the season, Los Angeles is a middling team in both offence and defence. Denver has the least productive offence in the league and a top-10 defence. Of late, the Chargers offence has continued to put up good numbers, and the defence has held four consecutive opponents to 17 or fewer points.
After looking so resolute through the first half of the campaign, the Broncos’ defence has leaked points over the last few weeks, and there is little suggestion their offence can do enough to keep pace with the Chargers here.
Los Angeles needed overtime to see off the Broncos when the teams met earlier in the campaign, but the Chargers have been the superior of the two since then.
Sure, Denver have scored 20 or more in three of their last four. Los Angeles’ defence has been very solid of late, however, and bettors have no reason to have faith in this Broncos offence. Denver has put some good numbers on the ground, and the Chargers’ rush defence is poor, but is that enough for the hosts to get into the mid-twenties in scoring? Probably not.
Much of the Chargers’ late-season surge has involved Austin Ekeler. Scorer of 18 overall touchdowns this season, Ekeler has got into the endzone eight times in the last seven games. He has scored at least once in six of those seven. The Broncos have conceded 13 touchdowns over their last four games.
Aside from injury concerns, which appear to be relatively minor, it doesn’t make much sense for the Chargers to be underdogs here. Homefield advantage has to be taken into account, but that isn’t enough to make Los Angeles 2.5-point underdogs for this game.
Bet Builder Odds: 4.50 (tracked)
Odds as of 1:00 pm January 6th, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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