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The 5-8 Jacksonville Jaguars host the 10-3 Dallas Cowboys on Sunday evening. Dallas is a four-point favourite on the road, despite Jacksonville winning three of its last five. The Cowboys have strung together four straight victories, and currently rank third in both points scored and points conceded.
Crucially, Dallas has got healthier. Their offence has been blowing teams away over the last six weeks or so. Jacksonville is middle of the pack on both sides of the ball, but has conceded 20 or more points in eight consecutive games.
Despite their less than impressive record, the Jaguars are just about in the hunt for an AFC Wildcard spot. Dallas’ status is more secure, even with the Philadelphia Eagles dominating the division. These Cowboys are almost certainly postseason bound, and they will be keen to maintain their current momentum into 2023.
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Sun, Dec 18. 18:00 (UK time)
Interestingly, this matchup could work in Jacksonville’s favour in some ways. They are seventh in yards allowed per rush, but well below average when the ball is in the air. Only six teams pass less frequently than the Cowboys on the season.
Dallas’ defence has been pretty dominant whatever the line of attack is. They pressure the quarterback more than any other team. The Eagles are the only team to allow fewer passing yards per contest.
The total is up at 48.5 for this game, which is understandable given the nature of the Cowboys’ recent games. Both teams have hit the over more often than not, and Jacksonville has seen north of 49 points in three straight. The way these teams matchup, however, could lead to a lot of play on the ground, which will take time off the clock.
If we nudge that line a few points higher, we can feel pretty comfortable taking the under.
With such a stifling defence, Dallas inevitably forces opponents into a lot of field goal attempts. They average 2.3 opponent field goals per game. The Jags are averaging 2.3 in their favour over the last three games. There is value on over 1.5 field goals for the hosts – Riley Patterson has made 21 of 25 field goals this season.
The Jaguars should be able to keep the Cowboys offence under better control than most teams of late. Dallas’ sheer firepower should still put enough points on the board for a win on Sunday, though.
The Cowboys simply have too many weapons for Jacksonville. If the Jags are able to disrupt their running game, it is clear they can lean more heavily on Dak Prescott, who attempted 39 passes for 284 yards just last week.
Bet Builder Odds: 4.75 (tracked)
Odds as of 2:00 pm December 16th, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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