american-football | Friday, January 20, 2023 3:04 PM

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Bet Builder Tips: 4.75 Wager For Entertaining Saturday Night At Arrowhead

Sam Cox

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Bet Builder: Saturday, January 21st

The Kansas City Chiefs are favoured by over a touchdown for their Divisional Round game against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Saturday evening. This is the second meeting between the teams this season after the Chiefs were 10-point victors back in Week 10. Since then, the Jaguars have lost just once, and pulled off an historic comeback to see off the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Round last weekend.

The Jags covered in just three of eight games as a road underdog, but once again, bookies overcompensated with the Chiefs. Kansas City went just 2-4-1 against the spread as a home favourite, and only won by nine or more points on two occasions in their final six regular season games. The line here is 8.5.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Bet Builder

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Preview

Sat, Jan 21. 21:30 (UK time)

Since scoring only 17 against the Chiefs in Week 10, Jacksonville’s offence has gone from strength to strength. It’s no secret Kansas City is an inconsistent team on the defensive side of the ball, though they kept opponents to 13 or fewer points in two of their final three regular season outings.

Jacksonville has scored over 19.5 points in five of their last six and each of their previous three. The Chiefs are almost exactly league average in points allowed per game. Bettors can feel pretty comfortable backing Jacksonville to reach the twenties in scoring.

Against the high-octane offence of Patrick Mahomes, opposing teams are forced to go toe-to-toe, favouring the pass. Trevor Lawrence had 288 passing yards on 47 attempts last week as well as four passing touchdowns. Look for the Jaguars to put the ball in his hands frequently on Saturday – take the pass attempts over.

The first half against the Chargers was a reminder of how leaky this Jaguars defence can be. They are bottom 10 in yards per play against the pass, which seems suboptimal against Mahomes. Inevitably, all of the lines for Mahomes’ props are sky-high, so it is best to look elsewhere for value.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Bet Builder

Travis Kelce, of course, is Mahomes’ main man. Kelce had a quiet conclusion to the regular year by his standards, but he was a force throughout the 2022 postseason and will be a key release valve for Mahomes with the Jaguars ranking in the top five in QB pressure rate. Kelce had over five receptions in his last four games, and has had five or more in his last seven playoff games.

We can’t feel comfortable with the 8.5-point spread in either direction. The Chiefs could easily win this in a blowout, but the Jags have shown they can put up a fight. At a raucous Arrowhead, though, it is impossible to see past Kansas City making their fifth consecutive AFC Championship game.