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The 2022 NFL season gets underway at SoFi Stadium on Thursday night with the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams hosting the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo, owners of the highest preseason win total, are slight favourites. Matthew Stafford is an injury concern for the Rams with a lingering elbow issue.
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Fri, Sep 9. 01:20 (UK time)
This is the first meeting between these teams since 2020, when Buffalo won a 35-32 thriller. The Bills have ascended to serious Super Bowl contenders since then, while the Rams are a very different team with Stafford under centre.
Buffalo owned the league’s best defence in 2021, conceding just 4.6 yards per play. Of course, much of the Rams’ success is built on their own fearsome defence. Despite losing Von Miller this offseason, they haven’t taken a step back in that department, even adding Bobby Wagner.
For all the talent on these defences, though, great offence beats great defence in the NFL, and both offensive groups are elite, ranking third (Bills) and seventh (Rams) in points per game last season.
Backing over 50.5 total points feels a safe bet – Buffalo saw well north of that number in both of their playoff games, and their regular season contests against other playoff teams were high-scoring.
With a lot of offence expected, the anytime touchdown scorer market is the next place to look. Regular season MVP favourite Josh Allen stands out here. Allen was third in rushing touchdowns among all quarterbacks last season, and Buffalo will inevitably look to him in the red zone against this Rams defence.
On the other side of this quarterback matchup, Stafford to throw an interception represents good value. The Bills clocked the third-most interceptions in the 2021 regular season, and no quarterback was picked off more than Stafford (17). Potentially impacted by his elbow issue, we’re expecting at least one turnover from the former Lion.
The Rams are expected to reach double-figure wins again this season and have a reasonable shot at defending their title. One area of weakness, though, is the receiving department, where they are relying on Cooper Kupp maintaining something close to his 2021 standard.
Kupp averaged over 114 receiving yards per game last season, almost double his previous season high. Los Angeles funneled their offence to him in the postseason and could be forced to do something similar here.
While predictability is a weakness, Kupp’s ability to generate separation was special in 2021. Even if he’s more of a short-yardage option in difficult situations, Kupp is going to be targeted frequently. His 7.5 line for receptions seems low as a result. He passed this in the last three playoff rounds – we like the over.
Bet Builder Odds: 11.00
Odds as of 9:00 am September 8, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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