american-football | Friday, December 23, 2022 1:50 PM

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers Bet Builder Tips: Christmas Day Wager at 3.50

Sam Cox

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers Bet Builder: Sunday, December 25th

The 8-6 Miami Dolphins are four-point favourites over the 6-8 Green Bay Packers on Christmas Day. Green Bay played on Christmas Day last year, beating the Cleveland Browns by a couple of points, while Miami has not played on December 25th since a 13-10 loss to the New York Jets in 2006.

The season-long records only tell part of the story. Miami was 8-3. Green Bay was 4-8. Projections for these franchises have changed drastically over the last couple of weeks, and while the Packers are still an outsider for the postseason, there is still something to play for. Miami is now looking over its shoulder.

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Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers Preview
Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers Bet Builder

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers Preview

Sun, Dec 25. 18:00 (UK time)

Green Bay’s defence has returned to form in the last couple of weeks, conceding 31 points over the last eight quarters. After setting a record-breaking pace early in the campaign, Miami has come back to earth with 63 points scored over its three-game losing streak.

Homefield is often considered to be worth about three points, so the bookies seem to have the Dolphins as the marginally better team here. It is worth noting, too, that they have covered the spread in four of their six games at home. Green Bay is just 3-4 ATS on the road, but 3-2 as an underdog.

The uptick in the Packers’ offence of late and Miami’s subpar defence (26th in points conceded) makes over 19.5 Green Bay points look a good bet. They have passed this number in four of five, including road games in Philadelphia and Chicago.

The ground attack has been a major part of the Packers’ improvement. They rank above league average in rushing play frequency over the last three, and this Dolphins defence has had some ugly games defending the run. Aaron Jones’ workload can vary, though, so let’s play it safe with 25+ rushing yards.

For Miami, it’s all about the passing game. Only three teams pass more frequently. Green Bay, however, has conceded the second-fewest passing yards this season. Tyreek Hill’s production has faded of late, yet his receiving yards line remains up at 87.5. He has gone under this number in four of five.

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers Bet Builder

For all their struggles this season, the Packers have generally kept close to their opponents due to their defence. They have lost by more than 10 points just once since Week 1. Miami has blown teams away at times, but they are not playing at that level right now.

If the road team are to score 20 or more points, they should be able to cover +10.5.