american-football | Thursday, December 1, 2022 10:15 AM

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Bet Builder Tips: Low-Scoring Game in 5.00 Bet Builder

Sam Cox

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Bet Builder Tips: Thursday, December 1st

The 6-5 New England Patriots are 3.5-point underdogs at home to the 8-3 Buffalo Bills. Records alone only tell a small part of the story for these teams, however, with Buffalo placing in the top five in offence and defence, while the Patriots languish at 18th in points per game. The Bills have the top scoring differential in the NFL at +10, and while the Patriots are bottom of the AFC East, they are eighth by the same metric with +3.4.

After a sluggish start to the year, New England has gone 5-2 over its last seven. Buffalo, long-time Super Bowl favourites, only narrowly beat the Detroit Lions last time out and have lost two of their last four games.

In this article:

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Preview
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Bet Builder

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Preview

Fri, Dec 2. 01:15 (UK time)

Josh Allen has been playing through an elbow injury, which seems to have hampered his effectiveness over the last few weeks. His production has dipped, and the Pats will fancy their chances of slowing down Allen. New England is sixth in net pass yards allowed per attempt, and ninth in passing yards allowed per game.

Allen’s passing yards line is set at 268.5 for Thursday’s divisional showdown. He has gone under this number in four of his last five. The Patriots have conceded under this number in nine of their 11 games thus far.

In general, this looks like a game for defence to trump offence. Buffalo has hit the under in 72.7% of their matches, and the Patriots have only cashed the over in five of their 11 games. New England is averaging just 14.9 points against over the last seven, while the Bills’ defence has been more generous to opponents of late, they should be able to keep this Pats offence under control.

The total is set at 43.5, a number Buffalo have gone over in their last three. Let’s nudge that up into the mid forties to give us a buffer.

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Bet Builder

With defence likely to be on top, it makes sense to expect a few field goals. Over the last three games, the Bills average 3.7 field goals per game (most in the league), and the Patriots average three (joint-second). For the season, New England is tied with Baltimore for top spot and Buffalo is joint-second with Las Vegas and Tampa Bay. Bettors can feel confident with over 2.5 field goals.

Allen isn’t at his best, and the Bills defence has conceded more points than they would have liked of late. Still, Buffalo deserves to be favourites in this matchup and should be able to win here. A lot of bettors will be lured in by the Bills moneyline, but we are taking the Patriots’ improved performances into account and giving Buffalo a few points.