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american-football | Thursday, September 2, 2021 11:17 AM
NFL Betting Value Report Cards 2021: Which Teams Are The Value Bets This NFL Season?
NFL Betting Value Report Cards 2021: Which Teams Are The Value Bets This NFL Season?
Sipa US / Alamy Stock Photo

What are the best value futures bets for this NFL season? With the NFL season about to begin, today we rank each team for betting value this season with our first ever NFL Betting Value Report Cards.

How Our 2021 NFL Betting Value Report Cards Work

It’s simple. We grade each of the 32 NFL teams for betting value heading into the season. There are a number of ways to bet on NFL futures, from betting on which team will win the Super Bowl, to which team will win either the NFC or AFC, which team will win each of the eight divisions and the always popular season win totals, where you can bet either over or under a given number of wins for each NFL team.

Grades rank from A to F with the odd + and – thrown in for nuance.

Just to make it clear. We are not ranking teams from best to worst. We are ranking teams on how we believe that will perform against futures betting markets. Which teams will over perform this season compared to market expectations? Which teams will under perform?

It’s All About Value

  • A and B grades are the best of the value in outright markets. A grades are the teams we think will out perform the market the greatest, while B grades we anticipate exceeding market expectations.
  • C and D grades offer some value but we more or less consider bookmaker expectations for these teams as accurate. We see C grades marginally exceeding the market while D grades will perform just below market expectations.
  • E and F grades are the worst of the value. We see these teams significantly underachieving relative to bookmaker odds this NFL season. We recommend betting against these teams in NFL outright markets.

Based on these value grades, we have compiled our list of best bets for the upcoming NFL season at the bottom of this article.

All odds featured in this article are as listed at 3rd September 2021. Odds may now differ.

So now, we present, the NFL Betting Value Report Cards for 2021.

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The A Grades


New Orleans Saints: A+

New Orleans Saints 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds
New Orleans Saints NFL Odds 2021

Drew Brees’ retirement and a range of salary cap cuts on both sides of the ball has many doubting the Saints in 2021.

However despite Brees’ month-long absence the Saints finished the 2020 regular season as arguably a top five offence, while their defence was one of the best performed across the 16 game schedule with both sides of the ball supported by strong play on special teams. 

The Drew Brees of 2020 was a pale shadow of his former self. While the Brees of seasons long gone may be missed in New Orleans, the Brees of 2020 will not. Jameis Winston will now take the starting job. While Winston has his flaws and at times seems to relish displaying them, he has shown the potential to be at the very least an above average quarterback. Winston will also be given every opportunity to succeed with Sean Payton as the play caller. In the final two seasons of Brees’ career, Payton put together a 8-1 record when Brees was missing. If any head coach can make the most of Winston’s flawed talent, it’s Payton.

Although the Saints lost some pieces on offence and will miss Michael Thomas early in the season, they still have a fierce running game with Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray running behind a strong offensive line. The Saints of 2021 may not look much like the explosive pass heavy Saints of the Brees era, but a dependable running game supported by one of the best defences in the league will see New Orleans exceed market expectations this season. 

New Orleans Best Bet

Take your pick. There is value across the board. But the best of the bunch is for New Orleans to reach the playoffs at odds of 2.0.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 31.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 17.0
TO WIN DIVISION 4.60
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 2.0
OVER 8.5 WINS 1.64
UNDER 8.5 WINS 2.25

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Baltimore Ravens: A

Baltimore Ravens 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds
Baltimore Ravens NFL Odds 2021

Lamar Jackson has promised plenty but despite the hype, he and the Ravens have failed to deliver in January. Baltimore has gone 35-13 the last three regular seasons combined but for all that success they are 1-3 in the playoffs, including a confounding home playoff loss to a 9-7 Tennessee in 2019 after a 14-2 campaign. In 2020 they defeated the rival Titans in Tennessee before scoring just 3 points in their Divisional loss at Buffalo.

While his talent is clear, questions abound as to whether or not Jackson can make the throws he needs to make and be effective on key downs. What is often lost in such discussions is that Jackson is still only 24 years of age and was the unanimous league MVP in 2019 a season he entered at just 22 years of age. Jackson’s upside remains mammoth and with another offseason under his belt coupled with the additions of Rashod Bateman and Sammy Watkins the Ravens offence will a handful for even the stoutest NFL defences. 

Baltimore finished 2020 going 11-5 despite scheduling headaches and covid related personnel absences. The Ravens of 2021 will go as far as Jackson’s improvement will take them. In 2021 that could well be the Super Bowl.

Baltimore Ravens Best Bet

Value across the board. Slight value is available for the Ravens to win the division with decent value for a Super Bowl victory. But the best of the value is for the Ravens to win the AFC at odds of 6.50.

BALTIMORE RAVENS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 13.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 6.50
TO WIN DIVISION 2.20
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 1.29
OVER 11.5 WINS 2.30
UNDER 11.5 WINS 1.62

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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The B Grades


Dallas Cowboys: B+

Dallas Cowboys 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Dallas Cowboys NFL Odds 2021

Dallas endured an horrendous 2020 campaign struggling through key injuries on offence compounded by a defence that surrendered the most points of any Dallas defence in franchise history.

While the Cowboys struggled on both sides of the ball, the club will return in 2021 with an offence that promises to be one of the best in the league. Dak Prescott will quarterback a unit featuring a receiving trio of Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb while Ezekiel Elliot will run behind an offensive line that if healthy remains one of the best in the league. Dallas also faces one of the league’s easiest schedules for opposition defences.

While the Cowboys have plenty to like on offence, their defensive talent looks to remain an issue in 2021. However the hiring of Dan Quinn as defensive coordinator should help improve a unit that was among the worst in the league in 2020. 

Dallas Cowboys Best Bet

Dallas has their share of skeptics once again and with just cause. But their offence is easily the best in a weak division, a division they should win. Take Dallas to win the NFC East at odds 2.25.

DALLAS COWBOYS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 29.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 15.0
TO WIN DIVISION 2.25
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 1.66
OVER 9.5 WINS 2.10
UNDER 9.5 WINS 1.71

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Miami Dolphins: B+

Miami Dolphins 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Miami Dolphins NFL Odds 2021

Miami finished the 2020 season with an unexpected 10-6 record, the club’s best record since 2016, missing the playoffs by a single game. The question now is whether or not they can replicate that improvement in 2021. 

Brian Flores has done an exceptional job since taking over as head coach in 2019. The Dolphins went 5-11 in his first season before bursting to their 10 win 2020 campaign, taking a defence that was last in the league for points allowed in 2019 to sixth in 2020 thanks to one of the best defensive backfields in the league.

Whether or not Miami can replicate their performance of 2020 or go one step further and reach the playoffs will depend on the play of second year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Miami’s front office has provided Tagovailoa with an enhanced array of weapons this season and if he can perform to his level of 2020 or even marginally better, Miami will make the playoffs.

Miami Dolphins Best Bets

The Dolphins have a roster that is playoff caliber. and are greater than even money to do so Take Miami to make the playoffs at odds of 2.20.

MIAMI DOLPHINS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 31.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 17.0
TO WIN DIVISION 4.50
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 2.20
OVER 9.5 WINS 2.10
UNDER 9.5 WINS 1.71

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Green Bay Packers: B

Green Bay Packers 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Green Bay Packers NFL Odds 2021

Aaron Rodgers remains in Green Bay. The current league MVP returns despite another offseason of speculation. The Packers are once again in position to, if not win the Super Bowl, at the very least be well in contention to represent the NFC at SoFi Stadium on February 13.

The Green Bay offence was the best in the league last season. Rodgers will once again be surrounded by a talented offence and while the receiver group is not the most talented it boasts one of the best receivers in the game in Davante Adams. The front office gave running back Aaron Jones a 4-year contract but losses on the offensive line will be a concern through the season. In combination, Rodgers, Adams and Jones pose plenty of concern for any defence in the league. 

Rodgers is a Packer at heart and despite issues with the coaching staff and front office, he will want to make the most of what looks to be his final season in Green Bay. Despite their limitations on offence and a middling defence that will be improved particularly in the secondary, Rodgers will carry the Packers again and place Green Bay in contention deep into the season. 

Green Bay Packers Best Bets

The Packers are favoured to win the NFC North at a price of 1.61. The value play is to take Green Bay to win the NFC at odds of 6.50.

GREEN BAY PACKERS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 13.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 6.50
TO WIN DIVISION 1.61
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 1.45
OVER 10.5 WINS 1.76
UNDER 10.5 WINS 2.0

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Tennessee Titans: B

Tennessee Titans 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Tennessee Titans NFL Odds 2021

On the back of an efficient run-heavy offence that finished as a top five unit by season’s end, Tennessee improved on their unlikely playoff run in 2019 to post an 11-5 record in 2020 and win their first division title since 2008.  The worry for Tennessee in 2021 is simple. Can Derrick Henry continue to carry the Titans’ offence?

The good news is he may not have to. Tennessee added Falcons receiver Julio Jones in the offseason and while the veteran’s best days may be behind him, the addition of Jones makes an already formidable Titans offence featuring both Henry and A J Brown, that much more dynamic. Jones’ presence should provide Titan’s quarterback Ryan Tannehill with another genuine deep threat, leaving softer defences for Henry to run into, promising equal productivity of previous seasons while limiting wear and tear.

The Titans concern is on defence and while they made improvements in the offseason they will face one of the toughest schedules for opposing offences in 2021.  With the addition of Jones to an already potent offence, the defence may not have to do too much to keep Tennessee in games.

Tennessee Titans Best Bets

Tennessee finds themselves in one of the NFL’s weakest divisions. Take the Titans to win the AFC South at odds of 1.83.

TENNESSEE TITANS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 26.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 13.0
TO WIN DIVISION 1.83
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 1.66
OVER 9.5 WINS 1.86
UNDER 9.5 WINS 1.86

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Carolina Panthers: B

Carolina Panthers 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Carolina Panthers NFL Odds 2021

Carolina is coming off back to back 5-11 seasons. However the 5-11 achieved under first year coach Matt Ruhle was vastly different to the 5-11 earned in the final season of the Ron Rivera era. The Panthers trudged their way through the season without a genuine option at quarterback while losing one of the greatest offensive weapons in the game Christian McCaffrey to injury just three games into the season. 

Despite those handicaps, the offence improved on the season previous. It remains to be seen what impact former NY Jets quarterback Sam Darnald can make at quarterback, but with a healthy McCaffrey the Carolina offence looks set to progress again in season 2021. If the defensive unit can improve even marginally, the Panthers will see themselves in the mix for a playoff spot come late December.

 Carolina Panthers Best Bets

The Panthers are available at odds of 11.0 to win the NFC South. There is tremendous value in that price. However the more sensible option is to take Over 7.5 wins at odds of 1.86.

CAROLINA PANTHERS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 61.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 29.0
TO WIN DIVISION 11.0
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 3.50
OVER 7.5 WINS 1.86
UNDER 7.5 WINS 1.86

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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New England Patriots: B

New England Patriots 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

New England Patriots NFL Odds 2021

The Patriots loom as one of the most interesting storylines of the season. Bill Belichick is coming off a 7-9 season that saw the offence doing its best just to tread water while the defence capitulated from one of the best the league has ever seen to one of the worst in the league for 2020. Reasons abound. Quarterback Tom Brady headed south to Tampa and was replaced by Cam Newton who now finds himself without a job as Mac Jones wins the starting position in 2021. Jones will helm a tight end heavy offence that will be geared to his strengths while he develops into the position.

Meanwhile the defence was devastated by eight covid opt-outs in 2020, four of which were starters on top of key losses in free agency. New England spent large and wise in free agency and will see the return of key starters in 2021. Whether they contend for a playoff berth will depend largely on play at quarterback and just how much of a football genius Bill Belichick is. A schedule that ranks as one of the easiest in the league will help. 

 New England Patriots Best Bets

New England won 7 games last season and is much improved in terms of personnel coming into 2021. Take the Patriots to reach the playoffs at odds of 2.20.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 31.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 17.0
TO WIN DIVISION 4.40
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 2.20
OVER 9.5 WINS 1.86
UNDER 9.5 WINS 1.86

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Chicago Bears: B-

Chicago Bears 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Chicago Bears NFL Odds 2021

The Bears went 8-8 last season before losing in New Orleans in the wildcard round. While their defence was arguably a top ten unit last season, the offence was a mess ranking among the worst in the league. The front office got their quarterback of the future in Justin Fields via the draft. But as head coach Matt Nagy is well aware, that’s the future. In the meantime, Andy Dalton is set to start. Despite limitations, Dalton is a veteran upgrade at the position.

Defensively, however, the Bears have the talent and have shown themselves as one of the league’s best. The unit will be improved again this season, with a front seven that will keep the Bears offence within touch week in week out. 

Chicago Bears Best Bets

Preseason angst aside, Chicago have a roster that should see them win more games than they lose. Take the Bears to exceed 7.5 wins at odds of 1.95.

CHICAGO BEARS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 51.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 26.0
TO WIN DIVISION 6.0
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 2.70
OVER 7.5 WINS 1.95
UNDER 7.5 WINS 1.80

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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The C Grades


Minnesota Vikings: C+

Minnesota Vikings 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Minnesota Vikings NFL Odds 2021

The Vikings were a disappointment last season earning a 7-9 record having promised much following their 10-6 season in 2019. Despite their struggles on defence and particularly on special teams, the Vikings offence was still among the best in the league. While quarterback Kirk Cousins continues to receive his fair share of criticism, he is surrounded by a talented offence featuring Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and potential superstar Justin Jefferson.

Minnesota’s primary area of concern last season was on defence. However much of that concern was due to injuries especially across the defensive line. Their defence will be significantly improved with the return of players such as pro bowl defensive end Danielle Hunter who will return after missing the entirety of last season to injury, key free agent signing of a season ago Michael Pierce who will return following a season removed from football due to the covid pandemic while linebacker Anthony Barr returns after playing in the opening two games of last season before injury saw him miss the remainder of the season. 

Minnesota Vikings Best Bets

The Vikings should improve on both sides of the ball in 2021. Take Minnesota to earn a playoff spot in 2021 at odds of 2.20.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 46.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 23.0
TO WIN DIVISION 3.75
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 2.20
OVER 8.5 WINS 1.66
UNDER 8.5 WINS 2.20

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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San Francisco 49ers: C

San Francisco 49ers 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

San Francisco 49ers NFL Odds 2021

San Francisco followed up their Super Bowl loss to Kansas City in 2019 with a 6-10 season. However the 49ers were ravaged by injury in 2020, enduring one of the most injury plagued seasons in recent history.

While the 49ers have a talented if still only a roster that promises more than it delivers, the 13-3 campaign of 2019 that saw them squander a lead to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl is the outlier of recent seasons. Outside of that one season, the 49ers won a total of 16 games in 2017, 2018 and 2020 and that’s ignoring their 2-14 of 2016.

There is also the loss of Robert Saleh as defensive coordinator to consider. Saleh is now leading the Jets in New York and will be replaced by DeMeco Ryans whose only previous experience is as an assistant coach. Regardless, he 49ers will be bolstered by the return of Nick Bosa and Dee Ford with the defence set to return to something akin to its 2019 status.

The offence now appears in transition with the 49ers grabbing the third pick in the draft and selecting quarterback Trey Lance. Lance is in the perfect place under the guidance of head coach Kyle Shanahan and could make an impact in San Francisco sooner rather than later.

San Francisco 49ers Best Bets

The 49ers have a roster that if healthy will compete in the fierce NFC West. Take San Francisco to win the NFC West at odds of 2.87.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 13.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 6.50
TO WIN DIVISION 2.87
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 1.50
OVER 10.5 WINS 2.0
UNDER 10.5 WINS 1.76

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Buffalo Bills: C

Buffalo Bills 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Buffalo Bills NFL Odds 2021

Buffalo’s offence soared in 2020, finishing as a top five unit thanks mainly to the play of third year quarterback Josh Allen. Allen’s improvement ranks statistically as one of the greatest of all time for a third year quarterback, doubling his touchdown production each year of his young career, from 10 in his rookie season to 37 a season ago while keeping interceptions steady, 12 in his rookie season to 10 in 2020. Of course it helps when you bring in a receiver like Stefon Diggs. Allen and Diggs connected on 127 throws in Diggs’ first season in Buffalo, doubling his production on his final season in Minnesota.  

Buffalo has maintained their roster with the front office investing in another crack at a Super Bowl trophy. The Bills spent their first two draft picks upgrading the defensive line. If Allen can replicate his feats of 2020 and is supported by a defence who showed positive signs late last season ultimately ranking as above average by season’s end, then the Bills will feature again late in the season.

Buffalo Bills Best Bets

The Bills will be in contention again. The value is marginal but the best bet is to take Buffalo to win the Super Bowl at odds of 12.0.

BUFFALO BILLS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 12.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 6.0
TO WIN DIVISION 1.61
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 1.25
OVER 10.5 WINS 1.55
UNDER 10.5 WINS 2.60

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Pittsburgh Steelers: C

Pittsburgh Steelers 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Odds 2021

Pittsburgh stormed to an unlikely 11-0 record last season, capitulating to win just one of their final five games before losing at home to Cleveland in the first round of the playoffs. The Steelers were nothing close to what their early season win streak may have suggested and while the defence was surprisingly again one of the best in the league last season, the offence struggled.

It’s an offence that will once again be helmed by Ben Roethlisberger who has patched his 39 year old self together for one more go around. Mike Tomlin and former quarterbacks coach turned offensive coordinator Matt Canada have their work cut out for them this campaign. The front office invested in the offence spending a first round pick on running back Najee Harris but the offensive line is still a concern. 

Pittsburgh Steelers Best Bets

Despite deficiencies on offence, Pittsburgh has a defence talented enough to earn a playoff spot. At odds of 2.60 there is marginal value in backing the Steelers to feature in January.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 36.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 21.0
TO WIN DIVISION 5.0
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 2.60
OVER 8.5 WINS 2.10
UNDER 8.5 WINS 1.71

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Arizona Cardinals: C

Arizona Cardinals 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Arizona Cardinals NFL Odds 2021

It was an up and down season for Arizona in 2020. Through the opening half of the season the Cardinals offence looked as good as it has since the Warner-Fitzgerald Cardinals were a toe tapping catch away from a Super Bowl trophy. The Cardinals offence ended the season, all told, as an average unit capable of looking like much more.

The defence meanwhile was above average veering at times into one of the best in the league but struggled especially against the run. The Cardinals spent their first round pick on Zaven Collins to upgrade their stocks at linebacker, Chandler Jones will return after missing 2020 while J J Watt comes over from Houston and will make a genuine contribution to the Cards pass rush.

While the promise was clear, Arizona finished 8-8. Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury have had another offseason to iron out the wrinkles of 2020. This bodes well for a season of growth in Arizona. In any other division, that would be fine. But in the NFC West, a season of growth will for now not be enough to compete for the division title. 

Arizona Cardinals Best Bets

Arizona will battle their way through a tough NFC West schedule but have made enough improvements to see them win more than they lose. Take Arizona to reach the playoffs at odds of 2.80.

ARIZONA CARDINALS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 41.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 19.0
TO WIN DIVISION 7.0
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 2.80
OVER 8.5 WINS 1.83
UNDER 8.5 WINS 1.90

Odds at bet365 as at September 2nd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Atlanta Falcons: C-

Atlanta Falcons 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Atlanta Falcons NFL Odds 2021

Atlanta made moves firing head coach Dan Quinn after a 0-6 start and moving on from 13 year GM Thomas Dimitroff. In comes former Tennessee offensive coordinator Arthur Smith as head coach and former New Orleans executive Terry Fontenot to lead the front office. Matt Ryan remains the starting quarterback after 13 seasons while veteran Julio Jones heads to Tennessee. 

Arthur Smith will get the most out of the Falcons offence despite the loss of Jones. They drafted tight end Kyle Pitts who will give Matt Ryan another quality target while also helping to bolster a below average offensive line.

Atlanta went 4-12 last season but were never as bad as that. While they may not set the world alight this season, their improvement will be significant.

Atlanta Falcons Best Bets

Atlanta are a marginal value play. Take the Falcons to reach the playoffs at odds of 3.20.

ATLANTA FALCONS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 61.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 29.0
TO WIN DIVISION 10.0
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 3.20
OVER 7.5 WINS 1.76
UNDER 7.5 WINS 2.0

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Indianapolis Colts: C-

Indianapolis Colts 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Indianapolis Colts NFL Odds 2021

So Frank Reich fancies himself as the Carson Wentz whisperer. Wentz played the best football of his rocky career when playing under Reich as the offensive coordinator in Philadelphia. Bringing in Wentz will no doubt define Reich’s tenure as head coach in Indianapolis. If Reich can see Wentz find anything approaching the play he displayed during his injury shortened 2017 season, then given the quality of the Colts 2021 roster, a Super Bowl run is well within reason.

Given Wentz’s temperament, undisciplined play of recent seasons and an injury requiring surgery in August, the form of 2017 may be the outlier Wentz dines out on for the remainder of his career.  But the Colts roster is ready to win and with a soft second half of the season schedule coupled with playing in the weakest division in the league, Indianapolis has every reason to feel like a division contender in 2021. If not for the Wentz injury, the Colts would be graded much higher. As it stands, a C- is the best we can do.

Indianapolis Colts Best Bets

The Colts win total and playoff odds are currently off the board given the uncertain status of Wentz. Take the Colts to win the AFC South at odds of 2.45.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 31.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 17.0
TO WIN DIVISION 2.45
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS NA
OVER  WINS NA
UNDER  WINS NA

Odds at bet365 as at September 2nd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Cincinnati Bengals: C-

Cincinnati Bengals 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Cincinnati Bengals NFL Odds 2021

Bengals fans entered last season full of hope. This year they come in on edge. Joe Burrow showed great promise in his rookie season until injured. Given the issues with the Bengals offensive line, Burrow was always going to be under stress in his rookie season and up to his injury had performed admirably. The injury to Burrow should have sounded the alarm in the Bengals front office to fix the offensive line. They did not. Instead of tending to the offensive line, they drafted the albeit talented Ja’Marr Chase at wide receiver over capitalising on an already talented group of receivers. Yes, they have weapons but if the offensive line cannot hold firm, it will all be for nothing. 

While the Bengals have their issues, the offensive line is marginally improved on last season in terms of personnel. If that unit can play up to even modest expectations, the talent surrounding a second year Burrow makes the Bengals a marginal value bet.

Cincinnati Bengals Best Bets

The Bengals are odds 26.0 to win the AFC North. At that price, the Bengals are a tremendous value play. However the more sensible approach is to take Cincinnati to win over 6.5 games at odds of 2.05.

CINCINNATI BENGALS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 176.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 76.0
TO WIN DIVISION 26.0
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 5.0
OVER 6.5 WINS 2.05
UNDER 6.5 WINS 1.74

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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The D Grades


Tampa Bay Buccaneers: D

Tampa Bay Bucs 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Tampa Bay Bucs NFL Odds 2021

Tom Brady. Tom Brady. Tom Brady. Tom Brady and a team known as the (I hope I have got this right) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (?) won the Super Bowl last season. 

Brady joined a stacked Tampa Bay team that was ripe to win a Super Bowl. All they needed was the greatest quarterback in NFL history and whoop, Super Bowl champions. The question now is can they repeat? Or more precisely, do they have the motivation to repeat? At this stage only a fool would suggest Brady is more than sated with his seven Super Bowl trophies.

With the Buc’s set to return each of their 22 starters on both sides of the ball this season, it appears motivation may be the only thing between Brady’s Bucs and another championship. The deeper question is will father time (still undefeated) catch up with Brady. While Brady was effective last season, he wasn’t as he has been even in more recent years. Regardless, the Bucs remain one of the most talented squads in the league and with Brady at the helm, assume they will be booking flights in January and beyond. But in relation to the market, there’s just a little too much love for this Buc’s team with the posted 11.5 season win total suspiciously low.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Best Bets

Only a fool would bet against Tom Brady. Then a fool I shall be. Take the marginal value bet. Under 11.5 wins at 2.20.

TAMPA BAY BUCS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 7.50
TO WIN CONFERENCE 4.0
TO WIN DIVISION 1.44
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 1.12
OVER 11.5 WINS 1.66
UNDER 11.5 WINS 2.20

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Kansas City Chiefs: D

Kansas City Chiefs 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Kansas City Chiefs NFL Odds 2021

The Chiefs learned a valuable lesson during their Super Bowl loss to Brady’s Bucs. As great as Patrick Mahomes is, he is not Superman. Behind an awful offensive line, Mahomes spent much of the second half of the Super Bowl hopelessly trying to evade a rabid Bucs defensive front. One of the league’s best offences looked second rate and scored just 9 points in their defeat. The Chiefs spent on upgrading the offensive line this offseason, an investment that will ensure they will feature late in the postseason once again. Whether or not the upgrades will see the Chiefs replicate their 14 win season of a year ago is another question. The Chiefs issues on the offensive line showed opposing defensive coordinators that despite their greatest anxieties to the contrary, Mahomes can be gotten to and made less effective by a consistent pass rush. The Chiefs can expect to see a less conservative approach from opposing defences in 2021. 

Kansas City Best Bets

The Chiefs will be in the mix to win their way to a third straight Super Bowl appearance. Kansas City is coming off a 14 win season, but won just 12 in each of their previous two campaigns including their championship season of 2019. Take Under 12.5 wins at odds of 1.71.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 5.50
TO WIN CONFERENCE 3.40
TO WIN DIVISION 1.33
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 1.09
OVER 12.5 WINS 2.10
UNDER 12.5 WINS 1.71

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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New York Giants: D

New York Giants 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

NY Giants NFL Odds 2021

Like the rest of the NFC East the Giants found themselves in an unlikely late season battle for the division title in 2020. It came to nothing with the Giants finishing 6-10 after starting the season 1-7. The good news for Giants fans is that the team has the pieces. The bad news is that those pieces may just be that, pieces. 

Is Daniel Jones the answer at quarterback? With plenty of talent at wide receiver including free agent addition Kenny Golladay, this season will go a long way to deciding if Jones is indeed the answer. Can Saquon Barkley return from injury and play anywhere near lofty expectations? While the Giants defence should have another strong season, the key concern is the offensive line which is expected to one of the worst this upcoming season. 

New York Giants Best Bets

Another frustrating season looms for the Giants. The mark of 6.5 wins seems about right. Take the marginal value of under 6.5 wins at odds of 2.30.

NEW YORK GIANTS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 67.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 34.0
TO WIN DIVISION 5.50
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 3.20
OVER 6.5 WINS 1.62
UNDER 6.5 WINS 2.30

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Seattle Seahawks: D

Seattle Seahawks 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Seattle Seahawks NFL Odds 2021

Seattle’s moody 2020 season spilt over into the offseason. The Seahawks appeared genuine Super Bowl contenders in early season play, capitulated through the middle of the season, before ending the regular season a boastful 12-4. They followed that up with a home wildcard loss to the Rams which was followed by Russel Wilson demanding an exit from Seattle unless his frustrations were addressed.

Wilson remains in Seattle and the prospect of a turbulent 2021 remains with him. Despite the early playoff exit, the Seahawks offence was one of the best in the league with DK Metcalf providing Wilson with an elite deep threat, while their defence, now a pale shadow of its former self, still providing support. Seattle will once again enter a season with the potential to make a deep playoff run. Whether Wilson and Pete Carroll can remain on good terms will go a long way to determining just how far this Seattle unit goes in 2021.

Wilson is still a capable top five quarterback, but will operate behind a poor offensive line this season and will face a schedule featuring some of the best defensive front sevens in the league.

Seattle Seahawks Best Bets

This feels like a separation trending towards divorce in Seattle. It’s been a good run. It won a Super Bowl. It lost another. But this is the season it all falls apart. Take Under 9.5 wins at the rich odds of 2.20.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 26.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 11.0
TO WIN DIVISION 3.75
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 1.83
OVER 9.5 WINS 1.66
UNDER 9.5 WINS 2.20

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Las Vegas Raiders: D

Las Vegas Raiders 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Las Vegas Raiders NFL Odds 2021

Las Vegas is getting no love entering this season. The Raiders were an average team last season, an average offence doing its best to make up for a deplorable defence, among the worst in the league. Las Vegas finished 8-8 and for a franchise that prides itself on flair and excitement, the team was, well, boring.

The front office has made an effort to address issues on defence but additions that will see the defence improve to middle tier at best. Jon Gruden is entering his fourth season in his second stint as Raiders head coach. Across his first three seasons he is yet to stitch together a winning season, totaling 19 wins in all. Marginal improvements have been made season on season but it’s time to make genuine inroads. Derrick Carr is a serviceable quarterback but is not one that will make up for deficiencies surrounding him on the offensive side of the ball (particularly the offensive line) nor an at its best mediocre defence. Another mediocre season looms in Las Vegas with doubts concerning the current regime compounding into the next offseason.  

Las Vegas Raiders Best Bets

Marginal value in taking the Raiders to finish below 7.5 wins at odds of 1.62.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 61.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 29.0
TO WIN DIVISION 17.0
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 4.0
OVER 7.5 WINS 2.30
UNDER 7.5 WINS 1.62

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Detroit Lions: D

Detroit Lions 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Detroit Lions NFL Odds 2021

Matthew Stafford’s time in Detroit is over. The Lions will now, at least in the immediate future, look to former Rams signal caller Jared Goff. Which is to say, in the immediate future, little is likely to change. Detroit’s offence delivered another average performance last season while their defence was, arguably, the worst in the league. The Lions front office went to work on both, sensibly investing draft capital in both their offensive and defensive lines. While that’s a good start, the Lions have plenty of holes to fill. Too many for one offseason. But if Dan Campbell’s introductory press conference is anything to go by, Lions fans should at least be able to get behind a head coach whose energy and passion is clear. 

Detroit Lions Best Bets

The odds of 1.50 to end under 5.5 wins in 2021 are a touch short. But there’s no way this Lions team gets to 6 wins even in a 17 game schedule. Take Under 5.5 wins at odds of 1.50.

DETROIT LIONS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 176.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 81.0
TO WIN DIVISION 26.0
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 7.0
OVER 5.5 WINS 2.65
UNDER 5.5 WINS 1.50

Odds at bet365 as at September 2nd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Washington Football Team: D

Washington Football Team 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Washington Football Team NFL Odds 2021

Washington’s 7-9 record of a season ago was enough to see them enter this campaign as defending NFC East champions. For Washington the formula for 2021 is simple. Firstly, replicate the play on the defensive side of the ball that saw them conclude 2020 as one of the league’s best, and secondly, improve on an offense that finished the season as one of the league’s worst.

The defence is set to make good on their end of the bargain thanks primarily to a dominant defensive line featuring Chase Young, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat. The offence is a different story. Washington brought in Ryan Fitzpatrick to steer the offence that is more likely to provide Washington fans with a roller coaster ride rather than the inexorable morbid decline of a season ago. 

Washington Football Team Best Bets

Washington will go as far as their defence can carry them. Fitzpatrick will have his moments, but banking on him to lift a dire offence is not the shrewdest play. Best bet Under 8.5 wins at odds of 1.90.

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 46.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 23.0
TO WIN DIVISION 3.25
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 2.50
OVER 8.5 WINS 1.83
UNDER 8.5 WINS 1.90

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Los Angeles Rams: D-

Los Angeles Rams 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

LA Rams NFL Odds 2021

After a Super Bowl appearance in 2018 and failing to make the playoffs in 2019, the Rams reached the playoffs on the back of a 10-6 season, defeating the Seahawks in Seattle before losing at Green Bay in the divisional round.

While the defence was the Rams strength, finishing a top five unit led by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, patience ran out on the offence. Quarterback Jared Goff was sent to Detroit while former Lion Matthew Stafford made his way to Los Angeles. There are concerns regarding the Rams depth, whether or not they have found replacements for key losses particularly on defence. 

On top of the fact that both coordinators (a total of six coaches) departed in the offseason, the burning question is whether or not Stafford is the upgrade at quarterback the Rams are banking on. Rationalisations abound for why the former number one draft pick by the Lions back in 2009 never became the elite quarterback he was touted by so many to become. Playing behind a poor offensive line. No running game. However you want to excuse Stafford’s inability to rise much beyond a better than average quarterback, at 33 years of age, Stafford is what he is. A capable quarterback with faded promise. 

Los Angeles Rams Best Bets

The Rams will be in the mix to win the competitive NFC West. But don’t expect to see a vast improvement on their record of 2020. Take Under 10.5 wins at odds of 1.71.

LOS ANGELES RAMS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 13.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 6.50
TO WIN DIVISION 2.87
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 1.50
OVER 10.5 WINS 2.10
UNDER 10.5 WINS 1.71

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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The E Grades


Los Angeles Chargers: E

Los Angeles Chargers 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

LA Chargers NFL Odds 2021

Justin Herbert had some sort of rookie season. Now, let’s see him do it again. No doubt Herbert has talent and appears a genuine star of the future. But earning the blushes of the football world with one solid rookie season does not make a career and does not project to a linear progression in 2021. Overall, the Chargers were a middling team last season, statistically average on both sides of the ball, finishing just short of 0.500 with a  7-9 record. If not for Herbert’s promise, there would be little to encourage favour heading into the new season. The team remains questionable on defence despite bringing in former Rams defensive coordinator Brandon Staley as head coach. 

Los Angeles Chargers Best Bets

So the Chargers are overrated? Sure, but how overrated are they? Overrated enough that the Under 8.5 wins at odds of 2.45 is a decent value bet.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 31.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 17.0
TO WIN DIVISION 7.0
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 2.25
OVER 8.5 WINS 1.57
UNDER 8.5 WINS 2.45

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Houston Texans: E

Houston Texans 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Houston Texans NFL Odds 2021

Houston looked set to make a huge score trading Deshaun Watson this offseason. Well, for reasons best left aside here, that didn’t happen. Now the Houston Texans 2021 season has been declared a disaster area even before it begins. The defence was one of the worst last season and will now be missing J J Watt who left for Arizona. Incoming GM Nick Caserio has done little if anything to address the team’s defensive deficiencies despite 70% of the entire Houston roster being turned over from 2020.

The offence was average even with Watson at quarterback. Now he is gone or as good as gone. Tyrod Taylor will start under centre. We could go on. But you get the point. Houston will be bad this season. For betting purposes, it’s just a matter of how bad.   

Houston Texans Best Bets

The Texans will stink. But will the stink be worse than the market anticipates? Yes. Take Under 4.5 wins at odds of 1.66.

HOUSTON TEXANS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 176.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 101.0
TO WIN DIVISION 29.0
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 7.0
OVER 4.5 WINS 2.20
UNDER 4.5 WINS 1.66

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Philadelphia Eagles: E

Philadelphia Eagles 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Philadelphia Eagles NFL Odds 2021

Philadelphia were Super Bowl champs in 2017. After compiling a 22-25-1 record in the three seasons since, Doug Pederson was fired in 2020 and perennial headache quarterback Carson Wentz is now reunited with former Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich in Indianapolis. 

The Eagles were one of the worst offenses in the league last season and fixing it will be first on the agenda of new head coach Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen. That may take time. Do the Eagles have a replacement at quarterback already in Jalen Hurts? Hurts was one of the most inaccurate passers in limited action last season. Hurts should improve but it wont be enough to lift the Eagles much further than last season’s disaster.  

Philadelphia Eagles Best Bets

Take the Eagles to finish under 6.5 wins this season at odds of 2.30.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 67.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 34.0
TO WIN DIVISION 6.0
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 3.60
OVER 6.5 WINS 1.62
UNDER 6.5 WINS 2.30

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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New York Jets: E-

New York Jets 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

NY Jets NFL Odds 2021

The Jets have had one winning season since their 11-5 season of 2010, going 10-6 in the first year of the Todd Bowles era, 2015. In the five seasons since, the Jets have collected a total of 23 wins, going 2-14 last campaign.

So what’s different this season? Well, Adam Gase has gone with highly regarded Robert Saleh replacing him as head coach. Saleh, the former San Francisco defensive coordinator, has his work cut out for him. The Jets have had some deplorable rosters over the last decade but the 2021 edition might be the worst of them all. The offence was one of the worst in the league last season and little has been done to rectify that immediately in terms of personnel other than the drafting of quarterback Zach Wilson. Any action the rookie Wilson sees this season will be behind a woeful offensive line. Not the best recipe for success.

The Jets seem to have made the right move hiring Saleh but immediate improvements will be marginal at best.

New York Jets Best Bets

A cultural shift can only do so much in a single season. Take the Under 6.5 wins at odds of 1.62.

NEW YORK JETS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 151.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 76.0
TO WIN DIVISION 26.0
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 5.0
OVER 6.5 WINS 2.30
UNDER 6.5 WINS 1.62

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Jacksonville Jaguars: E-

Jacksonville Jaguars 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Odds 2021

The narrow AFC Championship defeat of 2017 seems a lifetime ago now. In the three seasons since, the Jags have won a total of 12 games including a losing streak last season of 15 games. The Doug Marrone era that began displaying such promise has come to a close. In comes college coaching legend Urban Meyer and number one draft pick, quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Being the number one pick guarantees nothing, but Lawrence appears as close to a genuine NFL star quarterback in the making as any previous.

While Lawrence brings optimism for the long term, Meyer inherits the task of improving a squad that was among the worst in the league on both sides of the ball last season. Meyer will do things his way. Whether that translates to success is a big question for any long term college turn NFL head coach. It should be enough for the Jags to improve on last season’s 1-15 record. But not by much. 

Jacksonville Jaguars Best Bets

The Jags will play in one of the league’s weakest divisions. But the season win total of 6.5 appears a little steep even considering the key additions of Lawrence and Meyer. Take Under 6.5 wins at odds of 1.76.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 126.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 61.0
TO WIN DIVISION 9.0
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 3.75
OVER 6.5 WINS 2.0
UNDER 6.5 WINS 1.76

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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The F Grades


Cleveland Browns: F

Cleveland Browns 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Cleveland Browns NFL Odds 2021

Cleveland were 11-5 last season, their best record since the Bill Belichick Browns went 11-5 in 1994. While achieving double digits wins for just the second time since the franchise reentered the league in 1999 is something of an encouragement, the win total of 2020 is misleading.

The Browns point differential last season was -11 points, placing them 16th in the league, behind a 8-8 Chicago and a 7-9 Washington and just north of a 6-10 San Francisco. Which is to say they were lucky to win 11 games and are strong candidates for regression this season across a number of statistical categories. 

This is not to say that Browns are not capable of a genuine improvement in 2021. The offence appears to have found itself with Baker Mayfield playing within himself supported by a dependable running game. However defence was an issue last season with the Browns ranked among the league’s worst. The front office invested heavily on that side of the ball in the offseason with the lineup set to have a very different look than 2020. Whether that will reap immediate dividends remains to be seen. 

Cleveland Browns Best Bets

For all the hype, Cleveland remains a team on their way rather than a team that has arrived. They will enjoy another positive season. But taking under 10.5 wins is the value play here. 

CLEVELAND BROWNS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 15.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 8.50
TO WIN DIVISION 2.50
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 1.41
OVER 10.5 WINS 1.86
UNDER 10.5 WINS 1.86

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Denver Broncos: F

Denver Broncos 2021 Probabilities Based on Bookmaker Odds

Denver Broncos NFL Odds 2021

Since John Elway retired in 1998, the Broncos have gone through possibly the best range of slightly below average to slightly above average quarterbacks for any franchise in a 20 year span. Names such as Brian Griese, Jake Plummer, Jay Cutler, Tim Tebow and Case Keenum with the club only nailing it, for Peyton Manning’s four year stay. Denver now once again finds itself searching for a quarterback. That search looks unlikely to conclude this season. If the Broncos can find a signal caller to provide at least modest play, there is tremendous upside with Denver. Enter Teddy Bridgewater who was acquired from Carolina prior to the draft. Bridgewater is a stop gap at best and while the Broncos have talent, especially on defence with Von Miller set to return, the win total of 8.5 games is just too steep for a 9-8 season to be taken seriously.

Denver Broncos Best Bets

Take Denver to go under 8.5 wins at odds of 2.0.

DENVER BRONCOS NFL ODDS 2021 bet365 ODDS
TO WIN SUPERBOWL 29.0
TO WIN CONFERENCE 13.0
TO WIN DIVISION 7.0
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS 2.50
OVER 8.5 WINS 1.76
UNDER 8.5 WINS 2.0

Odds at bet365 as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.

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NFL Betting Value Report Cards Best Bets

Below are the best bets for each NFL team this season based on the analysis featured in the betting value report cards.

High value bets are the best bets across the board. These come from the A and F grades. We bet on New Orleans and Baltimore to succeed as A grade value teams while we bet against Cleveland and Denver to succeed as F grade value teams.

Medium value bets offer decent value. These come from the B and E grades. We bet on Dallas, Miami, Green Bay, Tennessee, Carolina, New England and Chicago as B grade value teams while we bet against the LA Chargers, Houston, Philadelphia, NY Jets and Jacksonville as E grade value teams.

Slight value bets offer some value though limited. These come from the C and D grades. We see some value in these selections although we tend to think the bookmakers have estimated these teams chances quite accurately.

TEAM Bet Odds Best odds Value
New Orleans Make Playoffs 2.0 bet365 High
Baltimore Win AFC 7.50 High
Cleveland Under 10.5 wins 1.89 High
Denver Under 8.5 wins 2.04 High
Dallas Win NFC East 2.50 Medium
Miami Make Playoffs 2.20 bet365 Medium
Green Bay Win NFC 8.0 Skybet transfer odds Medium
Tennessee Win AFC South 1.91 Medium
Carolina Over 7.5 wins 2.0 Medium
New England Make Playoffs 2.20 bet365 Medium
Chicago Over 7.5 wins 2.03 Medium
LA Chargers Under 8.5 wins 2.45 bet365 Medium
Houston Under 4.5 wins 1.66 bet365 Medium
Philadelphia Under 6.5 wins 2.30 bet365 Medium
NY Jets Under 6.5 wins 1.62 bet365 Medium
Jacksonville Under 6.5 wins 1.76 bet365 Medium
Minnesota Make Playoffs 2.20 bet365 Slight
San Francisco Win NFC West 3.0 Slight
Buffalo Win Super Bowl 13.0 Slight
Pittsburgh Make Playoffs 2.60 bet365 Slight
Arizona Make Playoffs 2.80 bet365 Slight
Atlanta Make Playoffs 3.20 bet365 Slight
Indianapolis Win AFC South 2.50 Skybet transfer odds Slight
Cincinnati Over 6.5 wins 2.05 bet365 Slight
Tampa Bay Under 11.5 wins 2.20 bet365 Slight
Kansas City Under 12.5 wins 1.71 bet365 Slight
NY Giants Under 6.5 wins 2.45 Slight
Seattle Under 9.5 wins 2.30 Slight
Las Vegas Under 7.5 wins 1.62 bet365 Slight
Detroit Under 5.5 wins 1.50 bet365 Slight
Washington Under 8.5 wins 1.90 bet365 Slight
LA Rams Under 10.5 wins 1.75 Slight

Odds as at September 3rd 2021. Odds may now differ.



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