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American football | Friday, February 10, 2023 12:53 PM (Revised at: Sunday, February 12, 2023 7:26 PM)

Super Bowl LVII Best Bet: Take Chiefs To Record Second Win Of The Mahomes Era

Super Bowl LVII Best Bet: Take Chiefs To Record Second Win Of The Mahomes Era
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Super Bowl LVII Best Bet: Sunday, February 12th

The finale of the NFL season is upon us. Phoenix hosts what is a fiercely anticipated matchup between the league’s two strongest teams. Philadelphia is favoured by just 1.5 for Sunday’s showdown, a line which has not budged since the Conference Championship games a fortnight ago.

The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes are in a third Super Bowl in four years, chasing a second ring with Mahomes at the helm. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles were a surprise package early in the season, but have proven to be a two-way force. Both finished the regular season with a 14-3 record.

Andy Reid faces a team he coached for 14 years, and scepticism about his ruthlessness in big games could reappear if the Chiefs fall on Sunday. The Kelce brothers are also making history at State Farm Stadium.

In this article:


Super Bowl LVII Preview

Sun, Feb 12. 23:30 (UK time)

Despite sharing the same record in the regular year, the Eagles are widely considered to be the better team. They were top eight in scoring and points allowed, while the Chiefs ranked middle-of-the-pack in defence with a trademark elite offence.

Not all seasons are created equal, though, and the Eagles benefited from a weaker schedule. Adjusted DVOA, for instance, paints this to be a much closer matchup, with the Chiefs just edging it. Kansas City has greater flaws than Philadelphia, but their strengths (primarily the all-time great quarterback play of Mahomes) are overwhelming.

Where Hurts has a diverse range of offensive weapons and a stellar offensive line to enable the running game, Mahomes’ receiving corps is nothing special. Travis Kelce is immense, of course, and Isiah Pacheco is versatile, but the Chiefs’ offence relies on the smart play calling of Reid and Mahomes’ brilliance. Predicting this game is, in some ways, a question of how much value you place on having the superior quarterback.

Philadelphia’s defensive line is ferocious, and will really test the Chiefs pass protection. Hurts and Miles Sanders can trouble Kansas City on the ground, which will be a huge factor if the Eagles take the lead. Philly’s biggest weakness might be their rush defence, yet this is an area the Chiefs seldom exploit. Only seven teams ran fewer rushing plays this season.


Super Bowl LVII Best Bet

Fortunately for neutrals, it appears Hurts’ shoulder and Mahomes’ ankle are not going to influence this game significantly. Perhaps Hurts is less likely to take hits, but Mahomes was not impacted a fortnight ago.

This is one of the hardest Super Bowls to call in recent memory. For all Philadelphia’s strengths, for their big-play threats on offence and turnover-causing defence, it is very difficult to bet against Mahomes. Kansas City’s offensive line is far better than it was in the Super Bowl blowout against the Buccaneers, and should at least be able to slow down the Eagles pass rush.

The Chiefs have enough around Mahomes on both sides of the ball to win this game, even if the Eagles have the superior overall roster.

  • Selection: Kansas City Chiefs moneyline
  • Best Odds: 2.05 (Boyle Sports)
  • Stakes: 5/10

Odds as of 1:00 pm February 10th, 2023. Odds may now differ.


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