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Football | Thursday, April 18, 2024 1:04 PM

AC Milan vs Inter Milan Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

AC Milan vs Inter Milan Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
Marco Canoniero / Alamy Stock Photo: Nicolo Barella of Fc Internazionale in action during the Serie A match

The game that can give the Nerazzurri their 20th Italian title is almost upon us, and with that, we’ve prepared an AC Milan vs Inter Milan prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures Serie A preview.

Prediction: AC Milan 1-1 Inter Milan

The Rossoneri have lost the last five derbies and will square up to their city rivals in the middle of an extremely tough run of fixtures. 

The runners-up spot is not in danger for Pioli’s men, but can they stop Inter Milan from celebrating on Monday night? Our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has the answer.

AC Milan vs Inter Milan Prediction 1: Rossoneri’s pride is at stake

Italy, Serie A, Monday, April 22nd, 19:45 (UK)

Three points on Monday night and Inter will clinch the Scudetto. 

The Nerazzurri have dominated the league and winning the title in the ‘Derby della Madonnina’ would be unforgettable. Perhaps even a greater pleasure for their fans than knocking AC Milan out of last year’s Champions League.

Lately Simone Inzaghi’s men have dominated this fixture and, after the disappointing elimination from the Champions League, want to end the season in style. 

Last Sunday’s 2-2 draw against Cagliari means Inter can no longer achieve the record of points in Serie A (102, which belonged to Antonio Conte’s Juventus in 2013/2014), but a win in the derby would represent the successful completion of an amazing domestic season. 

In fact, Inter have scored in every single league game so far (a record that stretches to last season, for a total of 40 consecutive matches) and have only trailed for about 30 minutes, losing just one game (2-1 to Sassuolo). 

AC Milan simply can’t afford to get beaten again. 

For too long the Rossoneri have been below Inter and, despite their positive season (they’ve got one more point at this stage than when they won the Scudetto in 2021/2022), a defeat would probably mean the end of Stefano Pioli’s tenure as manager. 

  • AC Milan vs Inter Milan Prediction 1: Under 2.75 Goals Asian Line (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 1.95
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 8/10

AC Milan vs Inter Milan Prediction 2: everything is set for the Scudetto party

Of course, a lot will depend on the result of the Europa League tie against Roma (not known at the time of publication), but whereas Inter have already planned the title celebrations, it’s the Rossoneri’s pride that is more at stake in this match.

In 2024 the hosts kept almost the same rhythm as Inter, scoring 31 goals against the Nerazzurri 35. 

Undoubtedly AC Milan’s strength lies in the forward line, in fact they’ve got seven players with five goals or more in Serie A compared to Inter’s three (Lautaro, Calhanoglu and Thuram), but they’ve struggled to control games at a slow pace. 

The high number of injuries, especially in defence, hasn’t helped Stefano Pioli but AC Milan also lacked focus on many occasions, and the difference in the number of clean sheets (12 for the Rossoneri, 19 for Inter; the record in Serie A is Juve’s 22) testifies to that. 

In the reverse fixture, which Inter won 5-1, the Rossoneri pressed high and gaps in their midfield line were easily exploited by Inter’s runs from deep and in the wide areas. 

It’s unlikely AC Milan will control the ball and will probably play more on the counter attack, especially initially. 

  • AC Milan vs Inter Milan Prediction 2: Total Corners: 9-11 (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 2.62
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 5/10

AC Milan vs Inter Milan Prediction 3: partners in crime looking to strike again

Inter will feel the urge to press forward and score early (as they normally do: the average time of their first goal is 32 minutes, the quickest in Serie A), but they know a draw would only postpone the party of six days, until their next home game against Torino.

Lately, the league leaders have slightly taken their foot of the gas, conceding in four of their last six league games as they gave away cheap goals at San Siro against both Napoli and Cagliari in the last quarter of an hour. 

One aspect Inter should improve for next season is how to manage leads, especially in front of their crowd, as often during the current campaign they dominated but missed important scoring chances (like against Atletico) and gave opponents (for example Bologna, Sassuolo or Verona) a lifeline.

Nicolò Barella’s numbers (two goals and six assists) are slightly down compared to last season (six goals, six assists), as the Sardinian midfielder hasn’t been involved in a goal since 23 December 2023 when he scored against Lecce.

However, lately, Barella has been one of the most lively players for Inter and has attempted 11 shots (two on target) in the last six games. 

With the return of Lautaro Martinez from suspension, Inter’s number 23 will have his preferred partner for creating scoring opportunities. 

In fact, the combination between the Argentinian striker and the Italian international striker has produced seven goals since last season. 

  • AC Milan vs Inter Milan Prediction 3: Nicolò Barella To Score Or Assist  (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 4.00
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 2/10

AC Milan vs Inter Milan Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:20, April 17th, 2024. Odds may now differ.


AC Milan vs Inter Milan Team News and Possible Lineups: important returns for the leaders

Simone Inzaghi will get back both of Benjamin Pavard and Lautaro Martinez (Serie A’s top goalscorer with 23 goals) from suspension.

The only doubt is in defence, with one between Francesco Acerbi and Stefan De Vrij, who will have the task of containing Olivier Giroud. 

Dimarco and Darmian will play on the flanks. Alexis Sanchez, who opened the scoring against Cagliari, will start on the bench. 

In AC Milan’s camp, Stefano Pioli has to deal with the absence of Malick Thiaw (suspended), who will be replaced by Matteo Gabbia. 

Reijnders and Bennacer will be confirmed in midfield, although Adli might start instead of the Algerian international. Leao, Loftus Cheek and Pulisic will support Giroud. 

Kalulu, Pobega and Cuadrado are the only injured players. 

AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Calabria, Gabbia, Tomori, Theo Hernandez,  Bennacer, Reijnders; Pulisic, Loftus Cheek, Giroud, Leao.

Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni; Darmian, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Thuram, Lautaro.


The Predicted AC Milan vs Inter Milan Serie A Standings by BETSiE

Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Serie A standings ahead of the AC Milan vs Inter Milan, currently 2nd vs 1st, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.

For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.

AC Milan vs Inter Milan Standings Prediction

Position Club Games W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 38 29.1 5.8 3.1 88.1 23.9 64.2 93.2
2 Juventus 38 23.4 9.2 5.3 58.6 26.2 32.4 79.6
3 AC Milan 38 21.8 7.0 9.2 70.0 47.8 22.2 72.5
4 Atalanta 38 21.0 6.1 10.8 71.7 39.9 31.8 69.2
5 Bologna 38 17.2 12.5 8.4 53.1 37.3 15.8 63.9
6 AS Roma 38 17.6 8.5 11.9 62.0 43.6 18.5 61.2
7 Lazio 38 17.7 7.5 12.8 47.7 38.8 8.9 60.5
8 Napoli 38 16.7 9.4 11.9 55.6 44.0 11.6 59.6
9 Fiorentina 38 15.9 8.3 13.8 54.3 46.1 8.2 56.0
10 Torino 38 13.6 12.8 11.6 36.4 35.3 1.1 53.7
11 Monza 38 11.2 12.2 14.5 37.7 50.0 -12.3 45.9
12 Genoa 38 10.7 12.6 14.6 38.2 47.2 -9.0 44.9
13 Udinese 38 7.3 17.5 13.2 39.7 54.6 -14.8 39.4
14 Lecce 38 9.1 12.0 16.9 41.0 60.6 -19.6 39.3
15 Sassuolo 38 9.9 8.4 19.7 47.9 65.8 -17.9 38.1
16 Frosinone 38 9.6 8.0 20.4 47.0 73.6 -26.6 36.8
17 Empoli 38 8.6 10.4 19.0 32.4 56.8 -24.4 36.2
18 Verona 38 7.8 11.4 18.8 36.8 52.2 -15.4 34.8
19 Cagliari 38 7.7 9.9 20.4 39.0 68.6 -29.6 33.1
20 Salernitana 38 4.2 9.7 24.0 31.3 76.3 -44.9 22.4

Match Stats: Inter have dominated in the last two years

  • The Nerazzurri have won the last five Milan derbies with an aggregate score of 12-1.
  • AC Milan have won only three of the last 18 matches against their city rivals.
  • Inter have only dropped four points away from home this season, but AC Milan are alongside Bologna and Torino Serie A’s best defense with only 8 goals conceded.
  • Lautaro Martinez has scored eight goals and provided three assists in 15 games against AC Milan. 

AC Milan Fixtures: three more home fixtures to end the season

  • Vs Juventus (A)
  • Vs Genoa (H)
  • Vs Cagliari (H)
  • Vs Torino (A)
  • Vs Salernitana (H)

Inter Milan Fixtures: could decide the relegation battle

  • Vs Torino (H)
  • Vs Sassuolo (A)
  • Vs Frosinone  (A)
  • vs Lazio (H)
  • vs Verona (A)

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