Better Collective A/S,
Sankt Annæ Plads 28, 1250 Kobenhavn K,
Denmark (DK)
Phone: +45-29919965
Email: [email protected]
CVR/Org.nr: 27652913
18+ | Wagering and T&Cs apply | Play Responsibly | Commercial content | Advertising disclosure
The financial constraints of the Premier League—akin to gold-plated prison bars or the purpose-built La Catedral overlooking the luscious mountainside of Medellin, Colombia—have once again made headlines.
Amidst the 115 sprawling charges at the door of Manchester City, the Premier League has taken aim at Nottingham Forest not long after snatching back six points from Everton in mirroring circumstances.
Whether you’ve got one foot in the “how on earth can teams compete with the big boys, then?” camp, or your inner Human Resources-led “rules and regulations are there to be adhered to” camp, we’re here to cut through the noise.
We’re not overly interested in the semantics or to feel sorry for any one of the top-flight clubs whilst the likes of Reading, Torquay, and similar struggle to scrape two pennies together – that’s for another time. Here, BETSiE, our in-house predictive model, or Super Computer as she has occasionally been coined, delves into the nitty gritty of whether or not Nottingham Forest will avoid relegation to the Championship. Let’s get to it.
Bettingexpert Football Editor, Sam Ingram, joins host Daniel Jenkins to reacts to the Champions League draw for the quarter finals, before turning attentions to the England Euros ‘To Make the Squad’ betting market.
The pair also analyses a tightly bunched Championship table ahead of Sam bringing shame to his hometown club with a relegation outright betting opportunity.
It’s BETSiE’s time to shine. She has attempted to predict the Premier League standings following Nottingham Forest’s four-point deduction, guided by season trends, fixture difficulty, and underlying data.
Alongside Nottingham Forest’s 100% probability of finishing in the bottom half of the table, BETSiE now projects a 22.7% likelihood of relegation. Luton Town (79%), Burnley (93.6%), and Sheffield United (98.8%) will all, eventually, pay the ultimate price according to BETSiE.
Visit her Premier League page here for more league-specific BETSiE content, including standings, probabilities, and predictions —it’s worth it.
Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Points |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26.8 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 91.2 | 31.5 | 59.7 | 86.2 |
2 | Liverpool | 38 | 25.7 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 89.3 | 36.6 | 52.7 | 85.8 |
3 | Manchester City | 38 | 25.2 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 84.7 | 38.1 | 46.6 | 83.6 |
4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 20.6 | 6.2 | 11.2 | 73.7 | 57.4 | 16.3 | 67.9 |
5 | Tottenham | 38 | 19.8 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 76.8 | 61.2 | 15.6 | 66.4 |
6 | Manchester Utd | 38 | 18.2 | 4.1 | 15.7 | 53.7 | 57.7 | -4.0 | 58.6 |
7 | Chelsea | 38 | 16.1 | 8.2 | 13.7 | 68.3 | 62.6 | 5.7 | 56.5 |
8 | Newcastle | 38 | 16.3 | 6.1 | 15.6 | 78.7 | 65.9 | 12.8 | 55.0 |
9 | Brighton | 38 | 14.3 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 63.5 | 59.7 | 3.7 | 54.4 |
10 | West Ham | 38 | 14.9 | 9.2 | 13.9 | 58.8 | 67.9 | -9.1 | 54.0 |
11 | Wolverhampton | 38 | 14.9 | 7.1 | 16.0 | 54.6 | 62.0 | -7.4 | 51.8 |
12 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13.5 | 10.2 | 14.3 | 58.2 | 66.3 | -8.1 | 50.7 |
13 | Fulham | 38 | 14.2 | 7.1 | 16.7 | 56.8 | 58.7 | -1.9 | 49.8 |
14 | Brentford | 38 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 19.9 | 56.5 | 68.3 | -11.8 | 40.0 |
15 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 17.8 | 44.9 | 64.4 | -19.5 | 40.0 |
16 | Everton | 38 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 16.8 | 44.2 | 54.0 | -9.8 | 39.1 |
17 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 19.6 | 46.5 | 62.5 | -16.0 | 33.8 |
18 | Luton | 38 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 22.8 | 53.4 | 81.3 | -27.9 | 29.8 |
19 | Burnley | 38 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 24.6 | 39.2 | 78.1 | -38.9 | 25.3 |
20 | Sheffield Utd | 38 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 25.7 | 34.8 | 93.6 | -58.8 | 22.7 |
They might now be in the relegation spots by one point, but if you zoom out and look at Forest’s final nine fixtures, 6/9 come against teams in the bottom half.
The matches against Wolves and Manchester City – two of the three top-half teams, will be played at the City Ground. Tottenham is the only top-ten team Forest has to take on away from home in the run-in. That should give Forest fans some hope.
Looking at their main rivals for survival, Luton, the Hatters face 5/9 (Tottenham, Arsenal, Man City, Wolves, and West Ham) top-half teams. Not only that, but the sides in the bottom half include Fulham, Bournemouth, Everton, and Brentford – all teams performing well or fighting for their own Premier League status.
The unkind fixture schedule at Kenilworth Road goes some way to explaining why they remain 1.61 third-favourites for relegation this season with bet365, just in front of Nottingham Forest (2.37), Everton (6.00) and Brentford (17.00).
Of course, it won’t be easy. The four-point deduction has clearly had an effect on BETSiE’s projections. In the table below, you’ll see that the deductions handed to the club on the 18th March has altered the probability of relegation by 17.1% since before the weekend’s recent dogfight against Luton Town.
CLUB | 18th March | 15th March | Change |
---|---|---|---|
Everton | 2.5% | 3.2% | -0.7% |
Nottingham Forest | 22.7% | 5.6% | 17.1% |
Luton | 79.0% | 88.8% | -9.8% |
Burnley | 93.6% | 99.5% | -5.9% |
Sheffield Utd | 98.8% | 99.7% | -0.9% |
At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.