BETSiE Predicts Nottingham Forest's Season After Points Deduction

The financial constraints of the Premier League—akin to gold-plated prison bars or the purpose-built La Catedral overlooking the luscious mountainside of Medellin, Colombia—have once again made headlines. 

Amidst the 115 sprawling charges at the door of Manchester City, the Premier League has taken aim at Nottingham Forest not long after snatching back six points from Everton in mirroring circumstances.

Whether you’ve got one foot in the “how on earth can teams compete with the big boys, then?” camp, or your inner Human Resources-led “rules and regulations are there to be adhered to” camp, we’re here to cut through the noise. 

We’re not overly interested in the semantics or to feel sorry for any one of the top-flight clubs whilst the likes of Reading, Torquay, and similar struggle to scrape two pennies together – that’s for another time. Here, BETSiE, our in-house predictive model, or Super Computer as she has occasionally been coined, delves into the nitty gritty of whether or not Nottingham Forest will avoid relegation to the Championship. Let’s get to it.

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Bettingexpert Football Editor, Sam Ingram, joins host Daniel Jenkins to reacts to the Champions League draw for the quarter finals, before turning attentions to the England Euros ‘To Make the Squad’ betting market. 

The pair also analyses a tightly bunched Championship table ahead of Sam bringing shame to his hometown club with a relegation outright betting opportunity.

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BETSiE Predicts the Premier League: Safe by a whisker

It’s BETSiE’s time to shine. She has attempted to predict the Premier League standings following Nottingham Forest’s four-point deduction, guided by season trends, fixture difficulty, and underlying data.

Alongside Nottingham Forest’s 100% probability of finishing in the bottom half of the table, BETSiE now projects a 22.7% likelihood of relegation. Luton Town (79%), Burnley (93.6%), and Sheffield United (98.8%) will all, eventually, pay the ultimate price according to BETSiE.

Visit her Premier League page here for more league-specific BETSiE content, including standings, probabilities, and predictions —it’s worth it.

Nottingham Forest Premier League Standings Prediction

Position	Club	Games	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Points
1	Arsenal	38	26.8	5.9	5.3	91.2	31.5	59.7	86.2
2	Liverpool	38	25.7	8.7	3.6	89.3	36.6	52.7	85.8
3	Manchester City	38	25.2	8.0	4.8	84.7	38.1	46.6	83.6
4	Aston Villa	38	20.6	6.2	11.2	73.7	57.4	16.3	67.9
5	Tottenham	38	19.8	7.0	11.2	76.8	61.2	15.6	66.4
6	Manchester Utd	38	18.2	4.1	15.7	53.7	57.7	-4.0	58.6
7	Chelsea	38	16.1	8.2	13.7	68.3	62.6	5.7	56.5
8	Newcastle	38	16.3	6.1	15.6	78.7	65.9	12.8	55.0
9	Brighton	38	14.3	11.4	12.3	63.5	59.7	3.7	54.4
10	West Ham	38	14.9	9.2	13.9	58.8	67.9	-9.1	54.0
11	Wolverhampton	38	14.9	7.1	16.0	54.6	62.0	-7.4	51.8
12	Bournemouth	38	13.5	10.2	14.3	58.2	66.3	-8.1	50.7
13	Fulham	38	14.2	7.1	16.7	56.8	58.7	-1.9	49.8
14	Brentford	38	10.9	7.2	19.9	56.5	68.3	-11.8	40.0
15	Crystal Palace	38	9.9	10.4	17.8	44.9	64.4	-19.5	40.0
16	Everton	38	12.0	9.2	16.8	44.2	54.0	-9.8	39.1
17	Nottingham Forest	38	9.7	8.7	19.6	46.5	62.5	-16.0	33.8
18	Luton	38	7.3	8.0	22.8	53.4	81.3	-27.9	29.8
19	Burnley	38	6.0	7.4	24.6	39.2	78.1	-38.9	25.3
20	Sheffield Utd	38	5.2	7.1	25.7	34.8	93.6	-58.8	22.7

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Forest’s Relegation Run-In and Bookmaker’s Pricing

They might now be in the relegation spots by one point, but if you zoom out and look at Forest’s final nine fixtures, 6/9 come against teams in the bottom half.

The matches against Wolves and Manchester City – two of the three top-half teams, will be played at the City Ground. Tottenham is the only top-ten team Forest has to take on away from home in the run-in. That should give Forest fans some hope. 

Looking at their main rivals for survival, Luton, the Hatters face 5/9 (Tottenham, Arsenal, Man City, Wolves, and West Ham) top-half teams. Not only that, but the sides in the bottom half include Fulham, Bournemouth, Everton, and Brentford – all teams performing well or fighting for their own Premier League status. 

The unkind fixture schedule at Kenilworth Road goes some way to explaining why they remain 1.61 third-favourites for relegation this season with bet365, just in front of Nottingham Forest (2.37), Everton (6.00) and Brentford (17.00).

Of course, it won’t be easy. The four-point deduction has clearly had an effect on BETSiE’s projections. In the table below, you’ll see that the deductions handed to the club on the 18th March has altered the probability of relegation by 17.1% since before the weekend’s recent dogfight against Luton Town.

CLUB	18th March	15th March	Change
Everton	2.5%	3.2%	-0.7%
Nottingham Forest	22.7%	5.6%	17.1%
Luton	79.0%	88.8%	-9.8%
Burnley	93.6%	99.5%	-5.9%
Sheffield Utd	98.8%	99.7%	-0.9%

 

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