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football | Monday, December 12, 2022 11:55 AM (Revised at: Monday, December 12, 2022 12:46 PM)
BETSiE Predicts....The 2022 World Cup: Semi Finals Best Bets
Andrew Brocker
2
We were only minutes away from a perfect 2-0 for our quarter final best bets, but those Dutch levelled giving us a half loss on the -0.25 goals we took on Argentina. Fortunately, Croatia did more than enough, sending their quarter final with Brazil to extra time securing a win on the +1.5 goals selection.
So we have three matches remaining. Three opportunities to leave with a profit at the end of the World Cup. Where is the value in the semi finals?
In this article:
- World Cup Semi Final Best Bets
- World Cup Semi Final: 1X2 Projections
- World Cup Semi Final: Asian handicap Projections
- World Cup Semi Final: Goal Total Projections
- World Cup Semi Final: Both Teams to Score Projections
BETSiE’s World Cup 2022 Semi Final Best Bets
Of the two World Cup semi finals, I’ve gone with just one selection:
- Argentina to win (regulation 90 minutes) vs Croatia @ odds 1.87
Best odds as at 12pm December 12th 2022. Odds may now differ.
BETSiE’s World Cup Best Bets Results….
- WON: Ecuador -0.25 goals (AH) vs Qatar @ odds 2.09
- LOST: Croatia to win vs Morocco @ odds 2.10
- PUSH: Belgium -1 goal (AH) vs Canada @ odds 1.90
- HALF LOSS/PUSH: Cameroon +0.75 goals (AH) vs Switzerland @ odds 1.94
- WON England vs Iran Over 2.25 goals @ odds 2.06
- LOST: Qatar +0.75 goals (AH) vs Senegal @ odds 2.07
- LOST: Netherlands -0.75 goals (AH) vs Ecuador @ odds 2.03
- WON: Australia +0.25 goals (AH) vs Tunisia @ odds 2.10
- HALF LOSS/PUSH: Denmark +0.75 goals (AH) vs France @ odds 1.92
- WON: Costa Rica +1.25 goals (AH) vs Japan @ odds 1.87
- WON: Croatia -0.25 goals (AH) vs Canada @ odds 1.85
- LOSS: Belgium to win vs Morocco @ odds 2.05
- WON: Spain vs Germany, Under 2.75 goals @ odds 2.23
- LOST: Canada +0.25 goals (AH) vs Morocco @ odds 2.08
- PUSH: Belgium +0 goals (AH) vs Croatia @ odds 1.96
- HALF LOST/PUSH: Mexico vs Saudi Arabia, Under 2.75 goals @ odds 1.97
- LOST: Costa Rica vs Germany, Under 3.5 goals @ odds 2.07
- WON: Australia +1.75 goals (AH) vs Argentina @ odds 1.91
- LOST: Poland +1.5 goals (AH) vs France @ odds 1.96
- LOST: South Korea +1.5 goals (AH) vs Brazil @ odds 1.96
- HALF LOST/PUSH: Argentina -0.25 (AH) vs Netherlands @ odds 1.95
- WON: Croatia +1.5 (AH) vs Brazil @ odds 1.87
So through the end of the Qtr Finals, we are:
- 8 wins, 10 losses, 4 pushes
- Profit of -2.02 units
- ROI of -9.18%.
World Cup 2022 Semi Final: 1X2 Projections
Below are the 1X2 probabilities for the two semi final best bets:
| Team A | Team B | Team A % | Draw % | Team B % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Croatia | 64.50% | 22.50% | 13.00% |
| France | Morocco | 60.40% | 23.90% | 15.80% |
There is value in the 1X2 market in both matches:
- Argentina (vs Croatia)
- Morocco (vs France)
Argentina enter their match with Croatia at best odds of 1.87 to get the win in regulation time, with odds 1.38 to progress to the final. Meanwhile Morocco are at best odds to 8.0 to win without extra time and odds of 4.56 to progress to the final.
So with value in the 1X2 market for both matches, let’s see if there is any corresponding value in the Asian handicap market.
World Cup 2022 Semi Final: Asian Handicap Projections
Below are the Asian handicap probabilities for each semi final match.
| Team A | Team B | Team A Ah | Team B Ah | Team A Ah % | Team B Ah % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Croatia | -0.75 | 0.75 | 58.00% | 42.00% |
| France | Morocco | -1 | 1 | 46.10% | 53.90% |
We see decent value taking Argentina at -0.75 goals at the odds of 2.11 while only slight value for Morocco at +1 goal at odds of 1.96.
So given the value for Argentina in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap market, let’s take:
- Argentina to win (vs Croatia)
Let’s now turn to semi final goal totals.
World Cup 2022 Semi Final: Goal Total Projections
So which matches provide some value in the semi final goal totals market?
| TEAM A | TEAM B | O/U Line | Over % | Under % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Croatia | 2 | 58.40% | 41.60% |
| France | Morocco | 2.25 | 50.50% | 49.50% |
There is some decent value available taking Over 2 goals in the Argentina vs Croatia match at the best odds available of 1.86 while there is only slight value for Over 2.25 goals in the France vs Morocco match at odds of 2.02.
Do we see corresponding value in the Both Teams to Score markets?
World Cup 2022 Semi Final: Both Teams To Score Projections
Below are the probabilities for both teams to score yes and no for the World Cup semi finals.
| TEAM A | TEAM B | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Croatia | 39.20% | 60.80% |
| France | Morocco | 41.70% | 58.30% |
There is slight value for Both Teams to Score – No in the Argentina vs Croatia match, which contradicts the value in the Over 2 goals market, so we will avoid any goal totals bets for this match.
There is slight value in the Both Teams to Score – Yes market in the France vs Morocco game, which corresponds with the slight value in the Over 2.25 goals market. However, given there is only slight value, we will likewise avoid this match.
So, the semi finals have arrived and we have one selection. Argentina to win against Croatia.
Enjoy your wagering as the group stage concludes.
As always, gamble responsibly.
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