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football | Thursday, January 5, 2023 11:42 AM (Revised at: Thursday, January 5, 2023 11:33 PM)
BETSiE Predicts....the Premier League 2023: January 6th Update
Andrew Brocker
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With no Premier League action now until January 12th, let’s take an opportunity to visit with our old girl, BETSiE.
Last time we checked in with BETSiE to take a look at Premier League outrights was way back in early August. Back then the old girl had Manchester City winning the league by just over 4 points to Liverpool in second place.
What has changed?
Well, much.
Let’s take a look at who BETSiE has winning the Premier League this season as at January 6th.
BETSiE’S Premier League Table Projection
Arsenal are favoured to win the Premier League by just under 2 points from Manchester City. The Gunners were projected to earn just 64.2 points heading into the season. With 44 points earned already, BETSiE sees Arsenal totally just under 86 points come season end. Meanwhile, Manchester City are projected to win just over 84 points, just over 3 points shy of their projected total of 87.1 at season kickoff.
Arsenal’s 21.6 projected points increase is the greatest of all clubs. Newcastle are projected to earn 17 points more than their season start projection of 54.7 points, while Brentford are projected to earn 55.1 points, a 15.1 points increase on their season start projection.
At the other end, Liverpool are projected to earn 64.9 points, 18 points less than their season start projection of 82.9 points. Chelsea meanwhile are projected to earn just 53 points, a total of 17.7 points less than their season start projection of 70.7 points.
| Pos. | Club | Gms | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26.5 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 80.8 | 34.4 | 85.8 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 38 | 25.7 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 88.5 | 33.8 | 84.2 |
| 3 | Newcastle | 38 | 19.7 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 66.9 | 32.0 | 71.7 |
| 4 | Manchester Utd | 38 | 21.5 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 61.8 | 43.6 | 71.4 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 18.9 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 76.3 | 51.4 | 64.9 |
| 6 | Tottenham | 38 | 18.7 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 66.8 | 49.7 | 64.0 |
| 7 | Brighton | 38 | 17.4 | 8.0 | 12.7 | 64.7 | 51.5 | 60.1 |
| 8 | Brentford | 38 | 14.1 | 12.7 | 11.2 | 60.0 | 56.1 | 55.1 |
| 9 | Chelsea | 38 | 14.6 | 9.2 | 14.2 | 47.0 | 47.7 | 53.0 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 14.3 | 8.3 | 15.3 | 58.5 | 63.5 | 51.4 |
| 11 | Aston Villa | 38 | 12.6 | 9.2 | 16.2 | 43.0 | 52.7 | 47.1 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 16.8 | 38.7 | 55.5 | 45.0 |
| 13 | West Ham | 38 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 18.3 | 40.3 | 49.2 | 42.7 |
| 14 | Leeds | 38 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 17.4 | 53.3 | 65.9 | 42.3 |
| 15 | Leicester | 38 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 19.9 | 48.4 | 60.0 | 40.3 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 19.4 | 33.6 | 67.4 | 36.4 |
| 17 | Southampton | 38 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 20.8 | 36.2 | 60.5 | 35.3 |
| 18 | Everton | 38 | 7.9 | 10.7 | 19.5 | 34.5 | 57.8 | 34.3 |
| 19 | Wolverhampton | 38 | 8.1 | 10.0 | 19.9 | 30.2 | 57.6 | 34.3 |
| 20 | Bournemouth | 38 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 21.6 | 34.1 | 73.0 | 31.8 |
BETSiE’S Premier League Winner Probabilities
Arsenal are favoured to win the Premier League in 2023, with BETSiE projecting the Gunners as a 55.3% chance of winning the league this season. Meanwhile, Manchester City are considered a 43% chance. The bookmakers disagree with BETSiE, with the oddsmakers considering Man City roughly a 63% chance to win the league with Arsenal at around 35%.
ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight has Man City as 50% chances to win the League, while Arsenal are given a 42% chance. So it’s safe to say that BETSiE is on her own when it comes to their fancying Arsenal to finish the season atop the table.
At the other end of the table, Bournemouth are favoured to finish in last place with the club considered just over 74% chances to be relegated. The other two relegation places are set to be taken by either Wolverhampton (54.7%), Everton (52%), Southampton (45.7%) and Nottingham Forest (39.3%). Meanwhile Leicester are not out of the woods just yet, given 13.6% chances of suffering the drop.
| Club | Win LEAGUE | Top 4 | Top 6 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 55.3% | 99.8% | 100.0% | 0.00% |
| Manchester City | 43.0% | 99.6% | 100.0% | 0.00% |
| Newcastle | 0.9% | 76.3% | 96.8% | 0.00% |
| Manchester Utd | 0.7% | 69.1% | 94.7% | 0.00% |
| Liverpool | 0.1% | 26.4% | 75.8% | 0.00% |
| Tottenham | 0.0% | 19.4% | 69.1% | 0.00% |
| Brighton | 0.0% | 7.3% | 39.9% | 0.00% |
| Brentford | 0.0% | 1.1% | 12.0% | 0.00% |
| Chelsea | 0.0% | 0.5% | 7.1% | 0.10% |
| Fulham | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3.4% | 0.10% |
| Aston Villa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 1.20% |
| Crystal Palace | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 3.10% |
| West Ham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 6.90% |
| Leeds | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 8.70% |
| Leicester | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.60% |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 39.30% |
| Southampton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 45.70% |
| Everton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 52.00% |
| Wolverhampton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 54.70% |
| Bournemouth | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 74.40% |
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