Burnley vs Man City Bet Builder Tips, Opta Stats, Player Props: Turf Moor Awaits

It could not have gotten much tougher for Vincent Kompany upon his Premier League return, Burnley vs Manchester City kicks off the top-flight campaign at 20:00 on Friday evening.

The new boys host a side fresh off a historic treble with a point to prove, having lost to the title pretenders on penalties in the Community Shield.

The Clarets have lost their last 11 games against City by an aggregate scoreline of 41-1. Hopefully, they will be buoyed by a sell-out Turf Moor.

If, before it gets underway, you fancy a look at bettingexpert’s ante-post fancies in one place, look no further.

---

• Both Teams to Score
• Kevin De Bruyne Yellow Card
• Josh Brownhill Yellow Card

Bet Builder odds: 56.00

England, Premier League, August 11th, 20:00 (UK)

Odds via bet365 as at 12:15 9th August 2023. Odds may now differ.

---

Burnley vs Man City OPTA Stats: The first Belgian of his kind

• Burnley have lost their last 11 head-to-heads against Manchester City by an aggregate scoreline of 40-1.
• The Clarets were thumped 6-0 when these sides met last season in the FA Cup.
• Vincent Kompany is set to become the first Belgian to manage in the Premier League.
• City have won the last 3 Premier League titles; no side has ever on 4 on this spin.
• BTTS paid out in each of City’s away league games against the 3 promoted sides last campaign.
• Treble winners Manchester City finished their 2022-23 Premier League campaign with a draw against Brighton and a defeat against Brentford. They’ve not had a longer run without a league win since a run of four in March/April 2017 (D3 L1).

See here for a rundown of the most head-turning stats in our weekly partnership with OPTA:  OPTA Stats x bettingexpert Match Day One Preview.

---

Burnley vs Man City: Pawson to revel in the spotlight

Both Teams To Score

It’s a flimsy stat to base a leg of the bet builder on, but the fact City conceded in each of their three away games against newly promoted sides last campaign interests me.

I think there is a case to be made for the sense of occasion when the champions come to town. Add to this narrative surrounding Kompany and the fact this is the first game of the season, and I think there is enough to go at.

Last season City played Nottingham Forest away first, where the hosts illustrated a textbook smash-and-grab. City squandered five big chances and could only score once from an xG of 3.21.

It was a case of the hosts taking their chance when it came at the City Ground, Chris Wood scoring with a 0.59 xG probability, but the point being, that chance eventually came.

Bournemouth created plenty during the Citizens’ trip to the South Coast, a 4-1 defeat, but the Cherries generated an xG of 1.71.

Fulham also took their ‘big chance’; City conceded one in each game.

Kevin de Bruyne Yellow Card

The return of the football league gave us a chance to see the new anti-dark art laws in action, and it was a shock to the system.

Cards were dished out like they were going out of fashion, and several games across England played over 105 minutes in total.

The Championship’s opening game saw eight cards, two for time wasting, one for an argument and the rest for fouls, the threshold of which seems to have been lowered.

A feature of opening day EFL weekend was players getting carded for stopping quick free-kicks, a pretty common ploy we have become accustomed to.

Lee Gregory did this for Sheffield Wednesday, I also saw Callum Styles do something similar for Barnsley against Port Vale, and it has got me thinking, are we going to see a flurry of attacking players carded for stopping play?

With that in mind, Kevin De Bruyne’s price of 9.00 for a card appeals at Turf Moor.

For a player of his intelligence, it is second nature to stop a quick free kick, something he will get penalised for in this campaign.

Josh Brownhill Yellow Card

Craig Pawson has the whistle for this one; he dished out 3.81 cards per game in the Premier League last campaign and struck me as someone who will play these new rules by the book, especially with the world watching the opening game.

Josh Brownhill looks like the most likely candidate. He racked up nine last campaign, the second-highest for the Clarets, and was an ever-present in their title-winning season.

The last time Burnley were in the top flight, Brownhill hit double figures for bookings, averaging 0.30 cards per 90 which makes the price of 3.75 value.

Factor in the referee, the new rules, the opposition and the occasion, and it certainly appeals to the bet builder.

---

RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a responsible approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.