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Mixed martial arts Cards and Booking Tips, Predictions, and Best Bets: Player Cards, Booking Points and Referee Data
International football is done for 2023, so we can all focus on club action until March. This week’s Cards Column is looking to follow last week’s 2.00 winner, as Shrewsbury picked up the most booking points in their defeat at Blackpool.
This weekend is back to usual. The cards chart for all the top-four tiers, two match picks and a player card selection too. Following this, our expert Matt Kirby will present his usual three picks, including one from the Premier League and two from the Championship.
- Everton vs Man Utd: 50+ match booking points & 20+ Everton booking points
- Preston vs Cardiff: Kian Best To Be Booked
- Birmingham vs Sheffield Wednesday: Over 3 match cards & each team to receive 1+ card in the second half
Odds via bet365 & Sky Bet as of Thursday, November 23rd, 2023. Odds may now differ.
The Data from the Premier League and the Championship: Team Bookings and Referee Data
There’s a huge clash to kick things off at Saturday lunchtime, as the top two in the Premier League collide. It’s Man City vs Liverpool, with Chris Kavanagh appointed to the game. John Brooks might have to keep a lid on things, as Everton welcome Man Utd to Goodison Park, in the Toffees’ first game after a 10-point deduction.
In the Championship, Darren England remains on the naughty step and takes charge of Millwall’s match with Coventry. Meanwhile, Gavin Ward oversees a meeting between two high-flying sides as West Brom host Ipswich.
The Data from League One and League Two: Team Bookings and Referee Data
The top-card issuer on the National List is Alan Young. He gets a game in League One, as Peterborough host Burton. Ollie Yates and Craig Hicks weren’t in action last weekend, but before the international break, their last matches saw them show two red cards.
Select Group 2 officials Leigh Doughty and Keith Stroud are across Leagues One and Two. Stroud, who is at Valley Parade, has recently been involved in the IFCPF Asia-Oceania Championships.
Everton vs Man Utd: White-hot atmosphere to catch fire
England, Premier League, Sunday, November 26th, 16:30 (UK)
I’m going to start with a Super Sunday game, where the Everton fans will get to show their displeasure at the 10-point deduction their club has been hit with.
Whether there’s a protest, it’s sure to be a fiery atmosphere at Goodison Park, and that could translate to things spilling over on the field of play.
If they do, we’ve got the ideal referee in John Brooks to mete out the discipline. He has been averaging 5.8 cards per game and has shown four reds in nine league outings. He even dismissed Gibraltar’s Ethan Santos in their record 14-0 defeat to France during the international break.
For the first part of the double, we’ll need 50+ booking points – or five yellows. Brooks has hit the 50+ line in eight of his nine league outings with his opening assignment back in August seeing three cautions.
Since then, his games have seen booking points totals of 85, 55, 60, 50, 65, 50, 70 & 75. Plenty of high numbers, so it’s no surprise to see Bet365 set their line at 5.5 cards (2.10), which looks fair enough on the bare numbers.
The second part is 20+ Everton booking points – something the Toffees have achieved in seven league games this term. Sean Dyche’s side also ranks joint-fourth for fouls per game (12.2), so they could have a bit of extra bite to their challenges with everything that’s happened off the pitch.
With Brooks issuing 20+ booking points to the home side in eight of his nine league matches, it shows he’s not afraid to rile the home crowd. Also, the referee took charge of United’s trip to Fulham at the start of the month. That game saw 70 booking points, with the Cottagers receiving 50 bp.
Bet365 offers 4.33 for a red card in the match, which could prove another angle if this gets tetchy. Brooks has shown the most in the Premier League (4) this term. So, in a white-hot atmosphere, follow a card-happy referee to issue cards to keep control.
- Selection: 50+ match booking points & 20+ Everton booking points
- Best Odds: 1.91
- Bookmaker: Sky Bet
- Stake: 10/10
Kian Best To Be Booked: Roll with Best again
England, Championship, Saturday, November 25th, 15:00 (UK)
I mentioned Kian Best earlier in the season when he committed numerous fouls and managed to escape without sanction in the Championship.
The Preston youngster finally saw his first league caution on his sixth appearance. That was as a sub when he featured for 58 minutes at Hull. Since that game, he’s been reintroduced into the starting XI, but as part of a back-three rather than left wing-back.
However, I don’t think that’ll matter here for several reasons. In his two recent appearances in the back-three, he’s completed three tackles in each game. In the Lancashire derby at Blackburn, Best gave away four free kicks, but wasn’t booked. It’s fair to say he rode his luck in that one.
What’s more, Best could be forced to defend in those wide-left positions, which might see him up against the tricky Josh Bowler. The Cardiff winger is one of the Bluebirds’ most-fouled players, so he could draw a couple out of Best.
With the Lilywhites ranking joint-second for fouls committed per home game in the second tier (13.6) and averaging 2.8 cards per home game, it seems likely a few Lilywhites players could well enter the referee’s notebook.
And when you’ve got Bobby Madley in charge, there’s always a good chance of cards. He has been averaging 5.4 per league game and has shown 2+ to the home side in seven of his nine games (78%), which all add to the equation of Preston cards.
Given the direct opponent, his foul numbers and a ref willing to book players, Best looks like a decent price for this week’s player pick.
Birmingham vs Sheffield Wednesday: Welch to continue to show the cards
England, Championship, Saturday, November 25th, 15:00 (UK)
My final selection comes from St Andrew’s, where Birmingham entertain bottom-of-the-table Sheffield Wednesday.
Wayne Rooney bids to pick up his first league win as Blues manager at the sixth attempt. So far, it’s four defeats in five, with a draw against high-flying Ipswich being the sole point he’s won.
This looks like a perfect opportunity to break his duck with Wednesday propping up the Championship. However, we might see a reaction from the Owls after they slipped to a 4-0 home defeat to Millwall before the international break.
And with two sides battling for points as they hope to find form and climb the table, we could see a tense affair. That leads me to cards and the appointment of Rebecca Welch certainly caught the eye.
She’s been a regular in The Cards Column this season. Welch has a 100% strike rate after showing 4+ cards in all five of her league matches. She’s also shown the perfect split of two cards to each team in each of those. That could be an angle, with both teams to receive 2+ cards at 2.25 with Bet365.
But with Welch averaging 5.4 cards per game and 3.4 of those coming in the second half, it leads me to my angle. You know it, it’s tried-and-tested: Over 3 match cards and a card each in the second half, which is priced at 2.20 using Bet Builder.
With Birmingham sitting second for cards per game in the Championship at 2.6 per 90, and Wednesday averaging 2.1, I’m expecting to see at least four cards brandished here.
Not only do those numbers look good, but these two sides rank second and third for fouls per game in the league. The Owls commit 13.4 per game, with the Blues not far behind at 13.3. If they hit those combined fouls at roughly 26, then cards have to be the play.
Welch took charge of Birmingham’s visit to Middlesbrough in Rooney’s first game. That saw six cards, with one each in the second half – a repeat would be ideal!
Her two most-recent appointments in all comps both saw four cards. Her Women’s Champions League outing between Bayern and Roma saw three of the four cautions come after half-time. Her last Championship game saw two cards in each half of Cardiff’s win against Norwich.
It’s an ideal referee appointment for us to get some cards in a game between two sides in need of points. And if Birmingham fall behind, the atmosphere could turn to displeasure towards Rooney’s tactics. So, I’ll stick with the tried-and-tested approach at a decent price.
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