Croatia vs Italy Prediction: Euro 2024 Team News and Lineups Preview

In a thrilling ‘Group of Death’ decider in Leipzig, Croatia and Italy clash in a do-or-die match to settle Group B, so here’s Croatia vs Italy prediction, team news, lineups and Euro 2024 preview, courtesy of our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella.

Both teams are fighting for their Euro 2024 futures, with Italy in a stronger position, needing only to match Albania’s result against the already-qualified Spain to reach the last 16. Croatia, on the other hand, find themselves in a precarious situation, likely needing three points  to stay in the tournament.

1. Croatia vs Italy Tip 1: Under 2.75 Goals Asian Line
2. Croatia vs Italy Tip 2: First Half: Draw
3. Croatia vs Italy Tip 3: Croatia Asian Handicap +0.25

Croatia vs Italy Prediction 1: a humbling defeat for Spalletti

Euro 2024, Monday, June 24th, 20:00 (UK)

Croatia’s campaign has been disappointing so far. They were 3-0 down to Spain by half-time in their opening match and then conceded a last-minute equaliser to Albania, leaving them with just one point.

The Croats are a team with ageing but still capable talents but still capable talents. The Azzurri need two out of three outcomes to advance.

A loss would mean hoping to progress alongside other third-placed teams. With only a few days to recharge, regain confidence, and find enthusiasm, Italy must focus on getting through the group stage.

Luciano Spalletti’s men were thoroughly dominated by Spain, with the final 1-0 scoreline misleading in favour of the Azzurri.

Apart from a late surge from Italy, Spain controlled the ball for nearly 80 minutes, only failing to convert their dominance into more goals. The technical disparity, both individually and collectively, was glaring and embarrassing at times.

It was expected that Spain would be stronger, but the extent of their superiority was surprising. The match was essentially one-sided, with Italy pinned back in their own half, relying heavily on goalkeeper Donnarumma, who was the standout performer. But not all opponents are as formidable as Spain, and Italy have shown they can compete with many others.

• Croatia vs Italy Prediction 1: Under 2.75 Goals Asian Line (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.75
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

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Croatia vs Italy Prediction 2: Modric & co lack rhythm and cutting edge

Spain outshot Italy 20 to 4, showcasing a vast difference in threat, energy, passing, quality, and creativity. Despite his pre-match doubts, Italy’s coach, Luciano Spalletti, stuck with the same lineup as the previous game.

Hindsight suggests that changing more than one player and fielding a more physically robust Italy from the start might have been better.

However, the gap was primarily technical. Spalletti, known for his modern, offensive style focusing on passing, movement, and vertical play, was let down by players lacking key attributes such as intensity, stamina, speed, and, crucially, the ability to take on and beat opponents.

On the other hand, Croatia had 67% possession in the first half against Albania, setting a new record for a major tournament.

Currently are third in dribbles (36) at Euro, which indicates, at times, their most talented players might lack passing options.

Modric & Co will need to be aggressive from the start, which might lead to an open game with numerous scoring chances. Only one of the previous 23 Euros Croatia games finished 0-0, but the Balkans have only kept one clean sheet in their last 13 games at the European Championship.

• Croatia vs Italy Prediction 2: First Half: Draw (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.20
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

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Croatia vs Italy Prediction 3: Azzurri’s bogey team

Historically, Croatia has been a bogey team for Italy. The Azzurri won their first meeting in 1942 but haven’t beaten Croatia since, with five draws and three defeats.

Based on BETSie projections Italy still has an 89.34% chance of qualifying and by finishing second they will likely be paired up with Switzerland in the Round of 16.

A scenario that, before the tournament, any Italian fan would have happily signed for.

Italy can’t and mustn’t lose heart; the difference with Spain was evident, but other celebrated teams like England are also struggling.

The path ahead is long, and finding the right keys to revive the squad, which has been humbled by the last match, is challenging.

However If Italy can’t compete on quality, they must rely on strategy, exploiting moments, covering weaknesses, and utilising their strengths.

Playing on equal terms with Spain while trying to impose their game was a near-suicidal approach. Spalletti, who is a very astute coach, will recognise and accept this and will make tactical adjustments to gain the edge over a struggling Croatia side.

• Croatia vs Italy Prediction 3: Croatia Asian Handicap +0.25 (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.82
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Croatia vs Italy Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:10, June 21st, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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Croatia vs Italy Euro 2024 Team News and Possible Lineups: Italy’s tactical dilemmas

Ante Budimir impressed off the bench against Albania, making a case for being included in the starting XI. Zlatko Dalic’s experiment of moving Ivan Perisic to left-back and playing Josko Gvardiol in the centre backfired against Albania, potentially paving the way for Borna Sosa to replace the former Inter Milan player.

Gianluca Scamacca struggled to make an impact against Spain, feeding on scraps and missing rare chances, potentially opening the door for Mateo Retegui. Federico Chiesa’s position could also be under threat after a lacklustre performance. Italy might ditch the four man defence and play with three centre-backs and Dimarco and one between Cambiaso or Darmian on the flanks.

Croatia possible starting lineup:Livaković; Stanišić, Šutalo, Gvardiol, Sosa; Modrić, Sučić, Kovačić; Pašalić, Budimir, Kramarić.

Italy possible starting lineup:Donnarumma; Darmian, Bastoni, Calafiori, Dimarco; Cristante, Jorginho; Barella, Pellegrini, Zaccagni; Scamacca.

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Euro 2024 Match Stats: misfiring Italians and ‘unbeatable’ Croats

• Italy only had four shots in total vs Spain, their worst record since 1980 at the Euros.
• Italy have failed to score for the first time in 11 games at the Euros and the 1-0 defeat suffered against Spain was just their fourth in 29 games.
• Calafiori the second Italian player to score an own goal at a major tournament, after Zaccardo in 2006 vs USA
• Italy have never beaten Croatia since they’re an independent nation: 5 draws and 3 defeats.
• Only one of Croatia’s previous 23 games at European Championships has ended 0-0.

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