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Analysis | Tuesday, June 11, 2024 2:01 PM (Revised at: Monday, June 24, 2024 3:24 PM)

Euro 2024 Match, Team and Table Projections - BETSiE Predicts: Updated 24th June

Euro 2024 Match, Team and Table Projections - BETSiE Predicts: Updated 24th June
Harry Kane of England looks on at England v Iceland ahead of Euro 2024 - Andrew Orchard sports photography / Alamy Stock Photo

Euro 2024 is upon us and our in-house tipping sensation, BETSiE is ready to preview events. Using a unique blend of data, BETSiE’s Euro 2024 match, tournament and team projections will look at every side’s chances in Germany.

BETSiE projects the entire Euro 2024 tournament, taking into account the results of tournament qualification and previous international tournaments.

BETSiE considers the following match data:

  • Goals For / Against
  • Shots For / Against
  • Shots on Target For / Against

However, not all goals, shots or shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.

Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.

Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Euro 2024 schedule and predicts scores for each upcoming game at Euro 2024 and the probability of each nation winning, drawing or losing each match.

Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the tournament 500,000 times to determine the probability of each team qualifying from their group, winning their group, reaching the final and winning the tournament.


But First, bettingexpert’s Free Euro 2024 Betting Guide is out NOW!

The bettingexpert Euro 2024 Betting Guide

WHAT WILL YOU FIND IN THE GUIDE?

Our guide takes a different approach to any other tournament preview. The analysis and insight you’ll find in the document is based on our in-house betting data which goes back decades. This betting data is on the following markets:

  • Match Result (1X2)
  • Handicap Betting
  • Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5)

Using this as a foundation, we’ve split the guide into several different sections:

  • 8 historical tournament  analysis articles
  • 24 team-by-team articles
  • BETSiE projections for every team and group
  • Unique analysis from our experts including exclusive quotes from Mikael Silvestre and John Barnes

For a free copy of the Euro 2024, click the button below:

Download the guide


Euro 2024 Group Projections

Below are the BETSiE Euro 2024 group projections.

Last updated 24th June 2024.

Group A

Group Nation G W D L GF GA GD Pts Win Group Qualify
A Germany 3 2 1 0 8 2 6 7 100.00% 100.00%
A Switzerland 3 1 2 0 5 3 2 5 0.00% 100.00%
A Hungary 3 1 0 2 2 5 -3 3 0.00% 71.56%
A Scotland 3 0 1 2 2 7 -5 1 0.00% 0.00%

Group B 

Group Nation G W D L GF GA GD Pts Win Group Qualify
B Spain 3 2.7 0.2 0.09 5.87 0.51 5.36 8.31 100.00% 100.00%
B Italy 3 1.41 0.27 1.32 3.35 3.16 0.19 4.5 0.00% 95.34%
B Croatia 3 0.32 1.27 1.41 3.16 6.35 -3.19 2.23 0.00% 32.72%
B Albania 3 0.09 1.2 1.7 3.51 5.87 -2.36 1.48 0.00% 13.13%

Group C

Group Nation G W D L GF GA GD Pts Win Group Qualify
C England 3 1.71 1.2 0.09 3.92 1.5 2.41 6.34 84.82% 100.00%
C Denmark 3 0.41 2.28 0.3 3.24 3.02 0.21 3.52 9.25% 72.64%
C Slovenia 3 0.09 2.2 0.71 2.5 3.92 -1.41 2.46 5.92% 33.72%
C Serbia 3 0.3 1.28 1.41 2.02 3.24 -1.21 2.2 0.00% 32.96%

Group D

Group Nation G W D L GF GA GD Pts Win Group Qualify
D France 3 1.69 1.2 0.11 3.02 0.68 2.34 6.26 54.18% 100.00%
D Netherlands 3 1.48 1.26 0.26 3.51 2.03 1.47 5.7 37.79% 100.00%
D Austria 3 1.26 0.26 1.48 4.03 3.51 0.53 4.04 8.03% 98.42%
D Poland 3 0.11 0.2 2.69 2.68 7.02 -4.34 0.54 0.00% 0.00%

Group E

Group Nation G W D L GF GA GD Pts Win Group Qualify
E Belgium 3 1.5 0.28 1.23 3.37 1.83 1.55 4.77 38.35% 88.16%
E Romania 3 1.37 0.29 1.35 4.15 3.1 1.04 4.39 34.13% 86.88%
E Slovakia 3 1.35 0.29 1.37 3.1 3.15 -0.04 4.32 20.59% 81.41%
E Ukraine 3 1.23 0.28 1.5 2.83 5.37 -2.55 3.95 6.93% 43.12%

Group F

Group Nation G W D L GF GA GD Pts Win Group Qualify
F Portugal 3 2.76 0.16 0.08 7.26 1.57 5.69 8.44 100.00% 100.00%
F Turkey 3 1.3 0.26 1.44 4.15 5.45 -1.29 4.16 0.00% 89.82%
F Czechia 3 0.44 1.26 1.3 3.45 4.15 -0.71 2.57 0.00% 51.87%
F Georgia 3 0.08 1.16 1.76 2.57 6.26 -3.69 1.4 0.00% 8.27%

Euro 2024 Team Projections

Below is a list of every team competing at Euro 2024 with their projected likelihood of finishing in each position.

Last updated 24th June 2024.

Nation Win Group Qualify Qtr Finals Semi Finals Reach Final Runner Up Win Euros
England 84.82% 100.00% 80.91% 56.19% 37.31% 15.38% 21.93%
France 54.18% 100.00% 79.88% 55.39% 32.27% 13.17% 19.10%
Germany 100.00% 100.00% 75.36% 45.52% 26.75% 11.70% 15.05%
Portugal 100.00% 100.00% 78.80% 48.12% 24.55% 11.46% 13.09%
Spain 100.00% 100.00% 77.66% 39.02% 20.69% 9.69% 11.01%
Italy 0.00% 95.34% 56.00% 26.22% 12.65% 7.51% 5.14%
Netherlands 37.79% 100.00% 62.45% 30.84% 12.65% 8.02% 4.63%
Belgium 38.35% 88.16% 47.43% 21.92% 9.28% 5.57% 3.71%
Switzerland 0.00% 100.00% 41.86% 15.28% 6.19% 4.34% 1.85%
Croatia 0.00% 32.72% 18.19% 7.31% 3.19% 2.13% 1.06%
Austria 8.03% 98.42% 42.47% 12.86% 3.59% 2.69% 0.91%
Denmark 9.25% 72.64% 23.39% 8.38% 2.87% 2.07% 0.79%
Czechia 0.00% 51.87% 15.72% 7.48% 2.46% 1.80% 0.66%
Turkey 0.00% 89.82% 20.10% 7.76% 2.06% 1.65% 0.41%
Ukraine 6.93% 43.12% 12.41% 3.63% 0.97% 0.76% 0.21%
Serbia 0.00% 32.96% 6.97% 2.01% 0.56% 0.41% 0.15%
Hungary 0.00% 71.56% 12.24% 3.50% 0.62% 0.50% 0.12%
Romania 34.13% 86.88% 18.56% 3.15% 0.46% 0.39% 0.07%
Slovenia 5.92% 33.72% 10.64% 2.10% 0.38% 0.33% 0.05%
Slovakia 20.59% 81.41% 14.35% 2.44% 0.37% 0.32% 0.04%
Albania 0.00% 13.13% 3.31% 0.59% 0.09% 0.08% 0.01%
Georgia 0.00% 8.27% 0.94% 0.16% 0.03% 0.02% 0.00%
Poland 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Scotland 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Euro 2024 BETSiE Best Bets

Below are the best bets for each match at Euro 2024 based on BETSiE projections and historical tournament betting trends.

Odds as at 10am, June 13th

MATCH SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER UNITS
Germany vs Scotland Scotland +1.5 (AH) 2 Pinnacle 4
Hungary vs Switzerland Draw (1X2) 3.25 bet365 1
Spain vs Croatia Spain Win (1X2) 1.98 Betsson 2
Italy vs Albania Albania +1.25 (AH) 1.91 888sport 4
Poland vs Netherlands Poland +1 (AH) 1.91 bet365 3
Slovenia vs Denmark Slovenia +0.75 (AH) 1.88 Pinnacle 4
Serbia vs England Serbia +1.25 (AH) 1.84 bet365 2
Romania vs Ukraine Ukraine Win (1X2) 2.05 Betsson 1
Belgium vs Slovakia Under 2.75 goals 1.89 Pinnacle 3
Austria vs France Austria +1 (AH) 2.07 Unibet 2
Turkey vs Georgia Georgia +0.75 (AH) 1.91 888sport 2
Portugal vs Czechia Czechia +1 (AH) 1.99 Pinnacle 3
Croatia vs Albania Albania +1 (AH) 1.95 Pinnacle 3
Germany vs Hungary Hungary +1.25 (AH) 2.1 10bet 4
Scotland vs Switzerland Under 2.25 goals 2.04 Pinnacle 3
Slovenia vs Serbia Under 2.25 goals 2.03 Pinnacle 1
Denmark vs England Under 2.5 goals 1.87 bet365 2
Spain vs Italy Under 2.5 goals 1.78 Pinnacle 3
Slovakia vs Ukraine Under 2.25 goals 1.95 bet365 1
Poland vs Austria Draw (1X2) 3.6 William Hill 1
Netherlands vs France Netherlands +0.5 (AH) 2 bet365 2
Georgia vs Czechia Gerogia +0.75 (AH) 1.8 Betsson 2
Turkey vs Portugal Under 2.75 goals 1.93 Pinnacle 3
Belgium vs Romania Under 2.75 goals 1.84 Pinnacle 2
Germany vs Switzerland Switzerland +0.75 (AH) 1.96 Pinnacle 4
Scotland vs Hungary Under 2.5 goals 1.9 bet365 3
Croatia vs Italy Croatia +0.25 (AH) 2 888sport 2
Albania vs Spain Albania +1.5 (AH) 1.98 bet365 3
England vs Slovenia Under 2.75 goals 1.85 Pinnacle 1
Denmark vs Serbia Under 2.5 goals 1.85 Pinnacle 1
Netherlands vs Austria Netherlands Win (1X2) 2.1 Betway 2
France vs Poland Poland +1.5 (AH) 1.85 Pinnacle 2
Slovakia vs Romania Under 2.25 goals 1.9 Pinnacle 1
Ukraine vs Belgium Under 2.5 goals 1.98 bet365 1
Czechia vs Turkey Draw (1X2) 3.5 888sport 1
Georgia vs Portugal Georgia +1.5 (AH) 1.98 Pinnacle 1

Euro 2024 BETSiE Best Outright Bets

Below is the full list of best outright bets for Euro 2024 based on BETSiE projections.

Odds as at 12pm, June 13th

NATION SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER UNITS
Switzerland Win Group A 7 Unibet 9.5
Czechia Win Group F 7 William Hill 9
Ukraine Win Group E 5.5 BetVictor 9
Switzerland Qualify 1.5 Betfred 30
Czechia Qualify 1.62 Betfred 39
Ukraine Qualify 1.4 William Hill 25
Germany Not Qualify 20 Paddy Power 0.5
Turkey Not Qualify 3.4 William Hill 10
Hungary Not Qualify 2.2 William Hill 18
Romania Not Qualify 2.1 BetVictor 10
Italy Reach Qtr Finals 2.1 bet365 15
Netherlands Reach Qtr Finals 2,25 bet365 10
Croatia Reach Qtr Finals 3.25 bet365 17
Switzerland Reach Qtr Finals 3.5 Skybet 9
Czechia Reach Qtr Finals 5 William Hill 12
Ukraine Reach Qtr Finals 4.33 BetVictor 8
Italy Reach Semi Finals 4.33 BetVictor 7
Belgium Reach Semi Finals 4.33 Coral 4
Netherlands Reach Semi Finals 4.33 BetVictor 3.5
Croatia Reach Semi Finals 7.5 bet365 6
Switzerland Reach Semi Finals 11 BetVictor 6.5
Czechia Reach Semi Finals 17 BetVictor 7
Italy Reach Final 8.5 Coral 3
Croatia Reach Final 17 bet365 2
Switzerland Reach Final 34 BetVictor 3
Czechia Reach Final 51 BetVictor 2
Ukraine Reach Final 51 Coral 1
Switzerland Runner Up 34 Skybet 1
Czechia Runner Up 41 bet365 0.5
Spain Win Euros 10 Skybet 1.5
Italy Win Euros 17 Skybet 0.5
Croatia Win Euros 41 bet365 0.5
Switzerland Win Euros 81 Paddy Power 1
Czechia Win Euros 151 bet365 0.5

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

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