football | Monday, February 13, 2023 1:18 PM (Revised at: Monday, February 13, 2023 1:19 PM)

Early Bird Best Bets Feb 16th-18th: Four Early Value Picks for the Week

Sam Ingram

Early Bird Best Bets: February, 16th-18th

It wasn’t quite Rihanna in Arizona, but the Early Bird put on a show last week with three selections and three wins, as the clean sweep sauntered through the dressing rooms of OGC Nice, Middlesbrough, and WSG Tirol.

Whether we can lay a similar marker down is a different question, but we’ll certainly give it a go.

In this article:

Juventus vs Nantes Preview & Best Bet
Sassuolo vs Napoli Preview & Best Bet
Middlesbrough vs QPR Preview & Best Bet
Brighton vs Fulham Preview & Best Bet

Juventus vs Nantes Preview

Europa League, Thursday, February 16th, 20:00 (UK)

First up, football on the European stage is back. Juventus inadvertently finds a home in the Europa League, a competition not quite befitting their illustrious past. Nevertheless, with Manchester United travelling to Barcelona elsewhere in the competition, there’s undoubtedly enough Europa League X Factor to outmuscle your partner/housemate’s differing viewing choices typically donning Thursday’s television set. The Allianz Stadium or Albert Square? No contest.

Nantes, known historically as the Venice of the west, was the name out of the hat for Juventus’ initial knockout round. The similarities of a picturesque city bursting with waterways aside, Ligue 1 Nantes will be an unknown entity for The Old Lady.

A peculiar passage saw the Frenchmen progress In Group G. Nantes ended the group stages as the only side to progress into the knockouts having conceded (11) more goals than the six they scored at the right end. They were also one of two sides, the other being Midtjylland, to lose as many games (3) as they won.

So, far from convincing. In fairness, so is dropping out of the Champions League in a group consisting of Paris Saint Germain, Benfica and Maccabi Haifa. Yet, clearly, the level of quality is somewhat of a stretch from Group G’s SC Freiburg, Olympiakos, and Qarabag FK.

As Juventus dust themselves down after a fifteen-point deduction in Serie A, it’s safe to say their season has moulded into an upward trajectory following calls for Allegri’s head from all angles. If the finances in Turin were as bountiful as their Premier League counterparts, we might have seen the back of Juve’s head coach long ago.

He’s still here, guiding Juventus to a points haul of 44 without said deduction – a total which would’ve had his side fifteen points from Napoli in second. Of course, that’s still not good enough for Juventus fans, but Napoli are by far the better team this season.

Nonetheless, one area Spalletti’s gang in Naples can’t quite compare is Juve’s consistency with churning out clean sheets in Serie A. The 13/21 matches where they’ve tended to a clean sheet is a 62% strike rate. That’s hugely impressive, suggesting that although they possess components like Di Maria and Dusan Vlahovic, there are defensive strings to the Old Lady’s bow that many find challenging to navigate.

In fact, Juventus have kept a clean sheet in six of their recent seven home matches domestically, including a 2-0 win against Inter and 3-0 against Lazio. With their capabilities of shutting up shop on home soil, the suggested selection will side with an ‘unders’ goals selection whilst getting the hosts on our side.

Juventus vs Nantes Best Bet

Considering the recent points deduction and a likely inability to work a Champions League qualifying spot in Serie A, the importance of the Europa League ramps up tenfold for Juventus. Forget silverware; that UCL spot handed to the victor in May is precious for those in Turin.

Look, Nantes won’t be a pushover, but they’re 13th in Ligue 1 for a reason. Recent wins over AC Ajaccio, Angers, and a Lorient reeling from losing key players were somewhat expected in that part of the world. Juventus is a different ball game entirely.

In the hope that Nantes don’t have enough to keep pace after 90 minutes, but put in a valiant defensive effort to take back to France for the second leg, a Juve win and Under 3.5 Goals is the play here.

Selection: Juventus Win and Under 3.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.00 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

More Juventus vs Nantes Tips

Sassuolo vs Napoli Preview

Italy, Serie A, Friday, February 17th, 19:45 (UK)

I’m running out of superlatives to depict Napoli. In the end, the 3-0 at home to Cremonese was as straightforward as many predicted, winning us the Napoli 2-4 Winning Margin & Score First Goal 1.95 punt over on Serie A’s Best Bets last week. However, the game’s landscape was a little different to what the scoreline may suggest.

Cremonese were good. More than good for large periods. They presented as compact and hard to break down, equipped with an intent to pounce and make the most of any lapse in concentration from the heavy home favourites. And for the first 20 minutes, Cremonese presented as the better side. Napoli needed to be patient – after getting the first goal, patience was key as they balanced the need to preserve the lead and push on to put the game out of sight.

It’s a balancing act they’ve perfected all season, with the shackles coming off after a second goal finds its home. Victor Osimhen showed up once again, making it 17 for the season (18 appearances) and eight goals in seven outings since the winter World Cup break ended.

Elsewhere, Domenico Berardi left the field of play early in the first half for Sassuolo. It forced an attacking setup that was somehow able to peg Udinese back to 2-2 despite the home side having the majority of goalscoring opportunities.

It took Sassuolo until deep until the second half to find their rhythm without their talisman, but it came too late as it ended honours even. The point shared was probably a fair result, but it’s the impact in attacking areas without Berardi that I’m concerned with.

Sassuolo will rarely change their front-footed approach; it’s not in their nature. Regardless, with the form this Napoli team arrives in and the three goals they plundered in the reverse fixture inside 40 minutes, I’d expect them to be more cautious than usual.

Sassuolo vs Napoli Best Bet

Though, at home, we can expect Sassuolo to give it a good go, an approach that’ll likely be to their detriment as Napoli pick them off as and when like they’ve done a thousand times this season. Without Berardi, it’s a steep uphill battle.

There’s a lack of attacking impetus without him, a void in certain areas, if you will. I’d expect to see goals here, but without their main man, one that deserves an audience, it’s hard to see Sassuolo matching the continuing juggernaut woven together in Naples.

Selection: Napoli Win and Over 1.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.80 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

More Sassuolo vs Napoli Tips

Middlesbrough vs QPR Preview

England, Championship, Saturday, February 18th, 15:00 (UK)

Middlesborough paid out at an odds-against price handsomely on the weekend. Cardiff were made to look a rung below at times as Carrick’s men played through the lines at will.

Both Boro and QPR play during the week – a test of automatic credentials in Sheffield whilst Sunderland visits QPR in the capital. So, skipping the midweek games and banking on limited injuries or suspensions, let’s leapfrog both and focus on the weekend.

QPR have won just once in fifteen matches stretching back to October. It is, evidently, a below-par run that has led to questions being asked of Mick Beale’s successor, and rightly so. Unfortunately, Neil Critchley simply hasn’t done enough as R’s boss to warrant safe passage in the dugout.

And now, QPR travel to one of the division’s form sides – a team swatting most out of the way with vigorous ease. Carrick has supervised 11 wins in 15, transforming Middlesborough into a Championship heavyweight with one eye on the Premier League.

Middlesbrough vs QPR Best Bet

If Carrick was donning Boro colours since the summer, Burnley would likely have some company at the upper echelons if recent performances are anything to go by.

Again, Boro confronts a team not quite at it in terms of form and team cohesion, with an under-fire manager often hopelessly watching on from the sidelines. Nevertheless, at 1.75, though a tad short, there’s value in that price for me.

Selection: Middlesbrough Win (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.75 (William Hill)
Stakes: 12.5/10

More Middlesbrough vs QPR Tips

Brighton vs Fulham Preview

England, Premier League, Saturday, February 18th, 15:00 (UK)

Once again, I’m keen to drink from the Overs well in Brighton’s next fixture at The Amex. Their next test? A Fulham side willing to go toe to toe with the best the Premier League has to offer.

I’ll keep it relatively short as overs in Brighton matches are somewhat self-explanatory: Roberto De Zerbi + handy Seagulls components + a visiting side willing to take the game to Brighton when circumstances allow = chances at both ends.

Elsewhere, Unibet’s 1.82 for both teams to score is also a head-scratcher if you’re of similar thinking here. For those who took the 2.0/2.5 Asian Goal line in Crystal Palace vs Brighton, a half-stakes loss may have you a little cautious here. Yet, how Alexis Mac Allister put his header wide in the closing stages is beyond me. Another day and that flies past the ‘keeper, and another overs Brighton pick gets over the line.

In terms of the numbers, Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 8/10 recent matches. The Bournemouth (1-0) and Crystal Palace (1-1) fixtures in the last two games put an end to a fruitful run – two matches that encouraged 3.68xG and 3.58xG, respectively, despite the scorelines.

Brighton vs Fulham Best Bet

Assessing the teams that lead the Premier League in the BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals metric, you’d see Fulham (14/23) and Brighton (12/21) above the rest, so perhaps we’re in good hands here.

Selection: Over 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.80 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

More Brighton vs Fulham Tips

Best odds available as at 10:00 on February 13th, 2023 Odds may now differ.

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Our best bets are posted by some of the best tipsters around. These are our tipsters best value bets. A best bet can be placed on any number of different markets. The most common of which are 1X2, the Asian handicap, BTTS, and the goals markets. Value can be found in matches from leagues across the world. Be sure to follow bettingexpert for the latest best bets.