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Football | Monday, June 24, 2024 11:40 AM (Revised at: Tuesday, June 25, 2024 8:53 AM)

France vs Poland Prediction: Euro 2024 Team News and Lineups Preview

France vs Poland Prediction: Euro 2024 Team News and Lineups Preview
Associated Press / Alamy Stock Photo: France's Kylian Mbappe adjusts his face mask

Welcome to our France vs Poland prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview. France played out a dour 0-0 draw vs The Netherlands on Friday night. Top spot in the group is up for grabs now and they might need to win by a certain margin to achieve it. 

France faces a Poland side who have been entertaining, but now knocked out of the competition. The Poles are playing for pride at this Euro 2024 Dortmund venue and will no doubt love to sign off with a victory. Steve Wyss previews the match looking for the best betting angles.

Silvestre: No fear for France against Poland, but it won’t be easy

Are there any lineup changes you’d like to see and why?

“Yeah, I think it’s good to give the players a rest. So I would give Griezmann, for example, a break so that he’s fresh for the last 16.”“I would give Kante a break as well. I will play Camavinga.”“I would also play Konate with Saliba. Or give Saliba a rest. Maybe also for Ferland Mendy to play instead of Theo Hernandez.”“So I would make like four changes, you know. Not more than four changes at the start and then see how it goes and maybe do more in the second half at some point to give the players a chance to, to play in the tournament, to stay focused and feel useful.”

Speaking of Saliba, do you think he’s answered all his critics when it comes to performances for the national team? I mean, two clean sheets and especially in the Austria game, you look pretty good.

“No, it was good. It was good. There’s no question mark.”“Concentration has been better and his decision making has been more spot on. Same as at Arsenal, same level. Therefore the rest was similar. Winning challenges, clearance interceptions, blocks.”“Yeah, the entire package was at the same level as with Arsenal. He’s stepped up at the Euros which is good for him.”

And speaking of the Poland game, do you think it should be a straightforward, easy even for France now that Poland are eliminated? Is it a good chance to really get the attacking line? Get some goals?

“Got to be careful with the teams that have nothing to lose because they’re going to go for it. You know, there’s no fear because there’s no pressure. So you have to be careful with these. These teams because they will play freely.”“And It’s not going to be an easy one. I mean, we didn’t see much threat, you know, especially because Lewandowski was injured, and he’s not, he’s not at a hundred percent. Simple as that.”

Do you think Poland have been the weakest team at Euro 2024 so far?

“Scotland and Poland. The ones that are eliminated.”“Of the poorest, I would say Scotland. The way they started the tournament, I don’t think you can ever recover from a performance like this. You know, it was extremely difficult.”“Poland without Lewandowski is not the same. He has so much influence. They came short so I think they need to look at the future now.”

France vs Poland Prediction 1: France to break their goalscoring shackles against porous Poles

Euro 2024, Tuesday, June 22nd, 17:00 (UK)

France came under plenty of criticism after their 0-0 draw against the Netherlands on Friday night. They were without their captain, Kylian Mbappé, but didn’t offer as much threat as they wanted. Les Bleus were hardly formidable going forward against Austria either, only just scraping a 1-0 win. This is a fantastic chance for the attack force to gain some confidence, though, against a Polish side which has conceded a lot of goals at this tournament. Whoever starts in the French attack should be able to fill their boots, and Didier Deschamps can use this match as a perfect opportunity to gain some rhythm in the final third.

Poland are already knocked out of the tournament and will finish bottom of the group. But at least they have been an entertaining team to watch and provided some excitement to their fans. Despite not having the full services of Robert Lewandowski, they have scored a goal in both fixtures and arguably should have netted more. The big centre forward will be keen to go out on a high, and Poland may as well go down swinging here. Even if they don’t score a goal, then it’s likely that their open nature will leave them too exposed against a quality French team. This feels like a definite ‘over’ game, and the 2.75 line feels too low.

  • France vs Poland Prediction 1: Over 2.75 Goals (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 1.82
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 8/10

France vs Poland Prediction 2: Les Bleus to dominate from the start

The Asian handicap line for France is -1.5, and the main reason for that is the gulf in class between the two teams and the fact that France might need to win by multiple goals to reach the top of the group. However, depending on the result of the other match, any victory might suffice, so I prefer to tackle Les Bleus in the HT/FT market. One thing the French have been very good at is responding to criticism, so I expect them to come out of the traps strongly. This isn’t a game in which they need to feel out the opponent. They can get stuck straight into Poland right from the first minute, so I expect France to lead at the interval. 

It would be a surprise if France didn’t win the match overall, so it makes sense to double up on the HT/FT. This would’ve been a winning bet in Matchday 1 against Austria, and Les Bleus aren’t the sort of team that usually let a lead slip. Poland would love to get something out of the game, but they know they are resigned to the bottom of the table, which could, at times, affect their mentality. They aren’t expected to get anything, so their performance is probably more important to them than their results. France should get what they need here, and it’s just a question of what market to back them in. Team totals are also possible, but from a percentage angle, then HT/FT feels right.

  • France vs Poland Prediction 2: France HT/FT (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 1.95
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 6/10

France vs Poland Prediction 3: Griezmann to finally convert shots into goals

If Kylian Mbappé doesn’t start or play a full match then more responsibility will again fall on Antoine Griezmann to deliver for France. He attempted five shots vs the Netherlands and had three on target. On another day he might have scored so he caught the eye at a big price to hit the back of the net. Even if Kylian Mbappé does play then it might be that the Poles pay less attention to him, thus yielding more opportunities. 

Griezmann will be taking several set pieces and is a threat from free kicks. He has the technical ability to strike a really sweet ball and if France are as dominant as expected then he should get several opportunities from just outside the area. He’s a dual threat from free kicks and open play but is priced as big as 2.87 to score. This looks very generous on an extremely dangerous operator. 

  • France vs Poland Prediction 3: Antoine Griezmann to Score Anytime (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 2.87
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 4/10

France vs Poland Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:00, June 22nd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

France vs Poland Euro 2024 Team News and Possible Lineups: Could Kylian Mbappé return?

All eyes will be on France captain Kylian Mbappé who suffered a broken nose in the first matchday. He wasn’t fit enough to play vs The Netherlands but could be risked here in some capacity. It’s more likely he’ll be benched though and only used if required. Robert Lewandowski should start for Poland in what could be his major tournament appearance. 

France possible starting lineup:
Maignan, Hernandez, Saliba, Upamecano, Kounde, Rabiot, Kante, Griezmann, Thuram, Giroud, Dembele

Poland possible starting lineup:
Szczesny, Kiwior, Dawidowicz, Bednarek, Zalewski, Slisz, Piotrowski, Frankowski, Zielinski, Lewandowski, Buksa

Euro 2024 Match Stats

  • France have won 3 of the 4 head to head matches played this century, including a 3-1 victory at the World Cup in Qatar 2022.
  • Poland have conceded 18 shots per game on average at this tournament, one of the highest rates for any team
  • Poland have scored two goals at Euro 2024, but underachieved their xG of 3.03
  • France have an xG of 3.10 but the only goal they scored was an own goal from Austria

Safer Gambling

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