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A Goalscorer in Wales, a booking on Merseyside and three points in Stoke – the pick of the bunch in the UK on Friday night. As always, we’re here to run the rule over all three at bettingexpert.
In this article:
England, Championship, Friday, December 30, 19:45 (UK)
Swansea takes on Watford in Wales on Friday evening, two teams struggling for consistent form.
The hosts come into this one yet to win since the restart, picking up one point and shipping five goals.
The Swans currently languish in 16th, having won, drawn and lost exactly eight games each.
Russell Martin’s side does fare better on their own turf than on the road, winning four of their last six at the Liberty.
Watford are one of the ante-post favourites for promotion, yet the course of the campaign hasn’t exactly gone to plan. A managerial change and the loss of Emmanuel Dennis were not ideal, and ten points of the automatic spots is not the position of a club with as lofty ambitions as the Hornets.
Since the restart, Slaven Bilic’s side have won and lost a game each by exactly the same 2-0 scoreline. If they are going to stand any chance of wheeling in the front runners, they must find consistency.
Joao Pedro has begun to add the numbers to his game that his early season performances deserved.
Perhaps eclipsed by Ismaila Sarr and Dennis at the beginning of the season, the Brazilian has become the standout player in this side.
He tops Watford’s charts for goals scored (8) and shots per game (2.1).
He has bagged four goals in his side’s last five games, and with him on penalties, his price to find the net here simply looks too large.
England, Premier League, Friday, December 30, 20:00 (UK)
Craig Pawson takes charge of this one, a man who has one of the highest cards per game average (4.44) of any top-flight referee.
He has given at least four cards in 78% of the nine league matches he has overseen and seven on two occasions.
Despite the fact Liverpool are heavy odds on favourites to win, I do think this game could be competitive, which could see a few cards flashed.
The Reds are currently 15 points off the pace and 10 points behind rivals Manchester City.
They have already dropped points in eight league games this season, losing half of those, which is already twice as many defeats as they managed last season.
At Anfield, Leeds, Brighton and Crystal Palace all managed to come away with something, so Leicester will fancy their chances in Merseyside.
It is hard to get a read on the Foxes against the league’s biggest and best sides as they ran Chelsea, Manchester United and Manchester City close but were convincingly beaten by Arsenal, Tottenham, and Newcastle.
Darwin Nunez has averaged 0.19 cards per 90 which makes the 7.00 available here value, without considering the referee or his opponents.
The Uruguayan will be pitting his wits against Daniel Amartey, one of the more physical defenders in the division.
More Liverpool vs Leicester Tips
England, Championship, Friday, December 30, 19:45 (UK)
Burnley sit top of the pile in the Championship.
They also top the charts for goals scored (69) and generated the second-greatest open play xG (25.74).
Only three players in the division have scored more than Jay Rodriguez (9), only one player has assisted more than Josh Brownhill (6), and no player has been carded more than Jack Cork (9).
Goals, quality, creativity and tenacity are all vital for success in the Championship.
Since their last defeat, 5-2 away at Bramall Lane, the Clarets have won all of their four games, scoring exactly three goals in each and only conceding once.
The underlying data suggests they have been fortunate, though, outperforming the xGD by 13.12 goals. Nevertheless, I think they have the quality to beat Stoke.
The Potters currently languish in 17th and have struggled for consistency all season long.
Alex Neil’s side have lost more games than they have won, and most recently drew to Rotherham, one of the ante-post favourites for the drop.
The hosts have really struggled at home as well, only picking up 12 points in 11 games, the third-worst home return in the second tier, which is why Burnley is the bet here.
Acca Odds: 72.45
Odds via bet365 as at 14:40, December 29 2022. Odds may now differ.
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